Welcome back to Before You Bet as I offer more AFL betting tips! Last week was my second profitable week of the season so far as I picked 5/7 winners, including a high confidence 2.5 unit play. My Round 3 tips ended up +3.54 units and i'm hoping this week will be even more successful, so read on for my 2016 AFL Round 4 betting tips.
AFL Round 4 Betting Tips
West Coast Eagles vs Richmond Tigers (Friday, April 15 at 6:10pm AWST)
The Tigers haven’t had the start to the season they would have liked. They go into this Friday night clash out west 1-2 and will likely be 1-3 if the Eagles have anything to do with it.
The talking point around the Tigers continues to be their injury woes. They have shown over the last few years that they struggle without Brett Deledio and unfortunately it doesn't look like he will be back any time soon and definitely not this week. They desperately want their star recruit Chris Yarren out on the park too and that's still a few weeks away. It looks like there is going to be more pain for Tigers fans in the near future.
The Eagles have their own injury woes with Xavier Ellis, Sharrod Wellingham, Dom Sheed all out and Jamie Cripps in doubt after some leg issues in Round 3. West Coast bounced back strong in the derby last week and all signs point to them starting to build some momentum. I think the Tigers will simply be smashed in the middle this week. West Coast's midfield looked dangerous in Round 3 and while Shaun Hampson was solid in the ruck for the Tiges, he will be dominated by Nic Nat. We know the Eagles can put up big scores. They kicked 12 goals, 20 last week, giving themselves another opportunity for a huge score. I'm not sure the Tigers can stop the Eagles from scoring at Domain. The Tigers are ranked 14th for inside 50s, so I can't see them scoring enough to cover the line either. Happy to back the Eagles here.
Tip: West Coast at the line (-27.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1.5 units)
Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats (Saturday, April 16 at 1:45pm AEST)
I have found it hard to bet on Essendon games so far this year, but that's to be expected. They are no doubt going to be a roller coaster during the 2016 AFL season. I'm not talking about whether or not they will win games, i'm more concerned with what sort of margin they are going to lose games by. This Saturday's game against the Cats is another one of those situations.
The last time these two teams met, the Cats won by 69 points. That game was in Round 10 of last season and was Etihad. This one is at the MCG, a stadium that the Cats and Bombers haven’t played against each other on since 2010. I really think this could be a big blow out. The Cats are averaging over 100 points per game so far this season and conceding just 77 points. The Bombers, meanwhile, are averaging just 63 points per game and are conceding more than 100 points. The problem here is that the Australian sportsbooks have the line set at 10+ goals. I lean towards taking Geelong to cover, but on the big ground at the MCG, I'm not confident enough.
Tip: No Bet
Hawthorn Hawks vs St Kilda Saints (Saturday, April 16 at 2:10pm AEST)
This clash down in Tasmania could surprise everyone and be one of the games of the round. Yes, the Hawks showed us once again they are the team to beat in their exciting victory over the Bulldogs, but the Saints are brimming with confidence after their win over the Magpies.
There will no doubt be plenty of talk around Hawthorn's amazing record at Aurora Stadium. They have won the last 15 straight and only lost one game out of 23. The Saints, however, are one of the more experienced AFL teams down in Launceston, winning five of nine games. If the Saints' midfield can fire up as they did against the Pies, I think this will be a harder task for the Hawks than expected. I don't think the Saints will win - the Hawks firepower up forward and their strong backline will be too strong, but taking a bit of value for the Saints to keep it somewhat close.
Tip: Hawks by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.60 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, April 16 at 4:35pm AEST)
The Queensland derby is probably the least interesting of any of the state matchups and this Saturday afternoon's game looks no different. The Suns are firing at the moment. Their midfield looks fantastic - and that's without David Swallow and Jaeger O'Meara. Brisbane, meanwhile, look like they will be without Rich, Rockliff and Beams. They are simply going to be dominated in the middle of the ground and there is no reason to think they can pick up any of the slack around the rest of the footy field.
The Lions don't only have to worry about the midfield too. They also have to contend with Jack Martin and Tom Lynch who have kicked 22 goals between them in the last three weeks. The Suns have ranked first for marks inside 50 so far this year and when the best defender at the Lions is the ancient Daniel Merrett, you know the Lions are in trouble. Quite happy to take the Suns to cover the line here.
Tip: Gold Coast at the line (-23.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (2.5 units)
Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs (Saturday, April 16 at 7:25pm AEST)
No doubt all the talk around this game will be Bob Murphy's knee. It's hard to tell what kind of effect the captain's injury will have on the Bulldogs, but no doubt it will make some sort of difference to their performance - both in terms of losing their general of the half back line, and in terms of a little bit of broken spirit. It's lucky for the Doggies that they only have to take on the ilk of Carlton in Round 4.
Since 2010, the Bulldogs have won 4 of 6 contests at Etihad against the Blues and I think they will make it another victory this week. I do, however, think Carlton can keep it closer than the line will have punters believe. The Dogs are coming off a really tough loss against the Hawks and that will have taken a toll on some of the young players. They then also have the Bob Murphy factor on their shoulders. I think they bat deep enough to get a win here, but taking them under 39.5.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.70 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans (Saturday, April 16 at 7:10pm AEST)
The Swans head to Adelaide Oval this Saturday night to take on the Crows and I think this looks like the most interesting game of Round 4. Before the 2016 season kicked off, a lot of punters thought the Crows would struggle without Dangerfield, but they continue to prove they are one of the better teams in the competition with big wins against Port and the Tigers and a small loss to the Roos. The Swans, however, will be their toughest test of the season so far.
The Swans have a great record against the Crows, winning the last four straight and keeping the Crows to less than 75 points in each of those games. The Crows will need to score more than that this week if they are a chance. They will also need to keep Lance Franklin at bay who has been very good this the last three weeks. If this game was in Sydney, I think the Swans would be 3-goal plus favourites, but the line is only set at 2.5 points. I will be jumping on the Swans at that small line. Their midfield is simply too dominant and I don't think travelling will bother them.
Tip: Sydney Swans at the line (-2.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (3 units)
GWS Giants vs Port Adelaide (Sunday, April 17 at 1:10pm AEST)
Another very interesting game for Round 4 is when Port Adelaide head to Canberra to take on the Giants. Despite a loss to Melbourne and Sydney, I really think GWS have looked promising. They defeated Geelong a couple of weeks ago, and at times during their loss to Sydney they looked very dangerous. Port Adelaide have had one more win than the Giants, but there have been times where plenty of question marks have been raised. This game is going to show us a lot about these two teams.
The battle of the midfield will be huge in this game. Robbie Gray has been fantastic the last few weeks, but I have to give the edge to the Giants midfield with Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward and Tom Scully a really damaging threesome. Shane Mumford should also be able to easily deal with Matthew Lobbe in the ruck. The problem with GWS here is that they have to find a way to kick goals before Jeremey Cameron returns in a couple of weeks. Because this game is in Canberra, I give a slight edge to the Giants, but the odds just aren’t right. Fade this one.
Tip: No Bet
Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons (Sunday, April 17 at 3:20pm AEST)
This game smells like a coin flip to me and yet the Magpies are favourites. I've spoken about the Collingwood affect in punting before - they are just too damn popular, they have too many fans the sportsbooks know it. On current form there is just no way the Pies should be paying $1.55 in this game. Does that mean the Demons win this game? It's not that easy. It's still going to be a tough game... I just wouldn't back the Pies this week at that price in a million years.
The Demons managed to kick 20 goals in their loss against North Melbourne last week. That may be a slight indictment on the Roos, but compare that to some of the horrible football the Pies played against the Saints last week. I think there are real problems down at Collingwood and their brave last-minute victory against Richmond was very lucky. The Demons look dangerous when going forward and I think they will give the Pies a run for their money. The Magpies do get Steele Sidebottom back, but I'm not sure that will be enough to see a guaranteed victory. Not hugely confident on this bet, but will be considering the Essendon game an anomaly and taking the Demons at the line.
Tip: Melbourne at the line (+11.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Fremantle Dockers (Sunday, April 17 at 4:40pm AEST)
If you had to set the odds for this game before the season began you might have had Fremantle as slight favourites. Cut to four weeks later and a horrid start to the season from the Dockers and the Roos go into this game paying just $1.36.
I usually love watching Sandilands and Goldstein go head-to-head, but alas the woe continues for the Dockers as Sandy will be on the sidelines for this one. The Dockers are simply a worse team without the big fella - and the Dockers happen to be playing the team with the best ruck in the comp. The Dockers notoriously have also struggled at Etihad and especially against the Roos where they have only one victory in six meetings. I don't rate the Roos all that highly, but this line against a struggling Dockers looks tempting.
Tip: North Melbourne at the line (-18.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
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