Punting doesn't always go to plan. After a great start for my AFL betting tips last week, I ended up having my biggest losing week of the 2016 AFL season. Fortunately there have been eight winning weeks so far and hopefully that becomes nine as we look at the first bye week with our 2016 AFL Round 13 betting tips.
AFL Round 13 Betting Tips
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Hawthorn Hawks (Friday, June 17 at 7:50pm AEST)
Friday night games don't get much bigger than this as the top-of-the-ladder Kangaroos take on the powerhouse Hawks. Games of this stature are usually reserved for the MCG, but this one will take place in front of a packed Etihad Stadium.
Cracks have started to appear down at Arden street. It's a tough statement, but they were too easily defeated by both Sydney and Geelong over the last three weeks. That's not to mention their current injuries woes, including skipper Andrew Swallow who will likely sit out on the back of a big concussion last week. There is a reason the Roos are 7th favourite in premiership betting at most Australian sports betting sites. They have a very tough four weeks coming up and after last week's loss, Round 13 could be the second of five losses in a row.
In saying all this about North Melbourne, let's not forget that the Hawks certainly aren't at their best. These are the sorts of games they absolutely have to win. They managed a confidence-boosting 108-point victory over the Bombers last week, which might have been exactly what they needed to start playing footy the way we all know they can. The Hawks have a great record against North, winning four of the last five, including a 60-point win at Etihad last season. The Hawks are one of the more potent scorers in the comp, averaging 102 points per game and I think this is where they win the game. The Kangaroos simply couldn't stop an undermanned Cats from scoring last week and with the Roos big forward line not gelling like it did in the early stages of the season, they will struggle to match it with the Hawks. If the tall timber don't kick goals for the Roos, they can't win as their midfield is one of the worst for goal kicking in the comp (their midfield has kicked half as many goals as the GWS midfield for instance). Throw in all the injuries and you can see the Hawks easily winning this game.
Tip: Hawthorn at the line (-14.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles (Saturday, June 18 at 1:40pm AEST)
The Lions wasted a chance to prove a point last week. They hosted a decimated Dockers at the Gabba and should have silenced some of doubters with a big win. Instead they showed us they are a complete basket case. On the back of that performance it's safe to assume they won't win another game this season and certainly not this week's game against the Eagles.
West Coast are actually very lucky to have such a poor opponent this week, otherwise they would be receiving almost as much scrutiny as the Lions. Before the season they were one of the contenders. Now they are looking like they will have to fight it out with the Demons and Port Adelaide for 8th spot on the ladder. The Eagles need a big win on the road to boost their confidence, especially considering Nic Nat is set to miss much of the second half of the season. The last time these two sides met back in Round 1, the Eagles kicked a massive 26 goals and considering the Lions let an undermanned Dockers kick 23 last week, it's safe to assume the Eagles will win this one by a big margin. If it was at Domain I would say this would be a ten-goal defeat at a minimum, but the travel from the west to Brisbane is very tough. I do, however, like the look of the over total game score. The Lions have conceded huge scores, both at home and on the road. Their last three games at the Gabba have gone over 200 points, while every game at home this season has been over 190 points. Happy to get on the over.
Tip: Total Game Score OVER 187.5 - $1.88 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
Fremantle Dockers vs Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, June 18 at 2:35pm AWST)
It's hard to truly know how the Dockers are travelling at the moment. They have won two games in row quite convincingly, but both games were against poor opposition. This will be a real test against Port Adelaide this weekend.
If the Power play with the same intensity as last week, they are going to be very hard to beat. The Western Bulldogs found a way to win, but Port matched what is the best pressure side in the comp at the moment. Fremantle simply won't be able to handle that kind of heat. My biggest concerns with the Dockers going into this one is the fact that their young players were the difference last week. Some people would say that is a big positive, but ultimately they can't play like that every week and a better team (like Port Adelaide) will prove too classy. Although they don't have a great record at Domain, the trip from South Australia shouldn't worry Port Adelaide. They are also coming off a home game, whereas Freo are coming off the long trip to Brisbane. Their depleted list might struggle here. Staying safe and taking Port Adelaide head-to-head.
Tip: Port Adelaide to win - $1.68 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Western Bulldogs vs Geelong Cats (Saturday, June 18 at 7:25pm AEST)
The 'game of the round' is definitely when the Western Bulldogs take on Geelong at Etihad on Saturday night. It's 2nd against 4th and a battle between two genuine premiership contenders.
It's astonishing that the Bulldogs haven't beaten the Cats in eight years, but that's how good this side has been. I'm not sure the Dogs will stop that losing streak this week. I actually do think this year's Western Bulldogs matches up well against the Cats, but the injuries are really starting to compound. Marcus Adams was the latest defender to sit on the sidelines last week and he is a must this week as Tom Hawkins comes back into Geelong's lineup. Unfortunately, the biggest loss this season (outside of captain Bob Murphy) is Luke Dahlhaus. He will be out for 3-4 weeks and will be sorely missed. He's the top ranked mid-forward player in the comp and will leave a big hole. The Cats, meanwhile, are firing on all cylinders. They looked dangerous at Etihad against North last week and considering the Dogs are coming off an away game and a game that was one of the toughest contested footy matchups of the season, there looks to be plenty of value on the Cats here.
Tip: Geelong to win - $1.75 at CrownBet (2 units)
Sydney Swans vs Melbourne Demons (Sunday, June 19 at 1:10pm AEST)
The Demons haven't won at the SCG in over a decade and I can't see that changing in Round 13 as the Swans will look to bounce back strong after their loss to GWS.
While I do think the Swans should win this game, if ever there was a time for the Demons to take a big scalp it's now as the Swans are going to be without Kurt Tippett who has simply been one of the best ruck-forward swingmen in the league. The Demons can really take advantage of this as well, considering they have the best pure ruckmen going around in Max Gawn. The problem here for the Demons will be the Swans midfield. They take the ball inside 50 with a lot of class and are fierce around the stoppages. Melbourne will have to be firing on all cylinders to be any chance. I do think they can keep this game well within 5 goals, but considering it's at the SCG and you don't know how the Swans will respond to last week's loss, I'm going to sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet
Essendon Bombers vs GWS Giants (Sunday, June 19 at 4:40pm AEST)
Yet another Essendon game where not much needs to be said. They simply can't beat almost any side, let alone a GWS outfit that crushed the Swans last week and are now considered one of the most dangerous teams in the comp.
So how can you bet on a game like this? The line is scarily large. If the game was at Spotless, I actually would probably jump at the 71 points. Essendon have proven they struggle to score more than 50, while the Giants have put up some huge scores this year. The Giants have only played at Etihad once this year where they defeated the Saints by 47 points. They looked pretty slick on the fast surface that day and scored 126. There will no doubt be a focus on defence at Essendon coming into this game, but they would have had the same focus before the Hawks game which they lost by 100 points. The biggest score Essendon have put up this year is 74, but have only managed 43 and 47 the last two weeks. Perhaps this will mean the Bombers will try to adjust and focus on scoring more, which in turn will allow the Giants to punish the Bombers. I'm not confident on a big play, but will have a small play on the line.
Tip: Giants at the line (-70.5) - $1.91 at Ladbrokes (0.5 units)
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
