The final 16 teams in the UEFA Champions League played out Leg 1 of their Round of 16 ties a few weeks ago. After some shock results, 8 of the teams will be back in action this Wednesday and Thursday morning to conclude their matchups. We preview the first four games set to be played on the 8th and 9th of March below, and be sure to check back next week to see our previews for the remaining four matches.
UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Betting Tips
Napoli vs Real Madrid (Wednesday 8th 6.45am AEDT)
Madrid claimed a comfortable 3-1 victory in Leg 1 back on the 16th of February meaning they’ll just need to hold on for a one goal loss or better to qualify. Knowing Real Madrid and the way they play, however, they’ll certainly be looking for a win here. After a loss to Valencia and then a draw with Las Palmas the week after, Real have slipped to 2nd on the La Liga table behind rivals Barcelona who are in scintillating form in the domestic competition.
It’s all or nothing for Napoli here, they’ll need a 3-goal win to send them straight through to the next round while a 3-1 win will send the game to extra time and penalties, any other result will see the Spanish side advance. It’s situations like this that result in a very aggressive play style from the team that is trailing in the tie, and while they might not advance, we expect them to score at least a few goals at home.
TIP: Total Napoli Goals OVER 1.5 – $1.97 at Unibet
Arsenal vs Bayern Munich (Wednesday 8th 6.45am AEDT)
There’s not much we can say about this matchup, apart from the fact that is already all but over. After a dominant performance in Munich back on the 16th, Bayern will take a 5-1 goal aggregate lead into this match, which should be unassailable for the English side. Munich stars Robben, Lewandowski and Thomas Muller all scored in their Leg 1 clash, supported by a Thiago Alcantara brace and they’ll all be making the trip to London to back it up on Wednesday morning.
It’s a daunting stat that no club has ever progressed to the next stage after being down by 4+ goals in the 9 previous times it has occurred in the Champions League. Year after year Bayern are one of the most structured and well drilled teams in the world, however, they have only managed to win one of their last six away games in the Champions League. Odds are they’ll play very defensively here and aim to keep win a low scoring match or keep the margin quite low if they are defeated.
TIP: Arsenal to win - $3.25 at bet365
Barcelona vs PSG (Thursday 9th 6.45am AEDT)
In the biggest upset of the Leg 1 matches, French side PSG dominated Barcelona to the tune of 4-0 to set themselves up to advance to the next stage. Although we said above that no team has ever advanced after being 4+ goals down, if there’s one side that can do it, it’s Barcelona playing at home. Barca’s 4-0 defeat in Leg 1 equalled their largest ever defeat in the Champions League, and while they might not have enough firepower to advance to the next stage, we strongly think they’ll win this match.
PSG will be playing quite defensively, sitting back and letting Barcelona dictate possession, which plays exactly into the Spanish sides hands. Coming off 5 wins on the trot in the La Liga, and with the added benefit of the home field advantage, Barca should be leading by at least a few goals, hopefully setting up an interesting last 20 minutes to this match.
TIP: Barcelona -1 - $2 at William Hill
Borussia Dortmund vs Benfica (Thursday 9th 6.45am AEDT)
Unfortunately, we predicted Borussia Dortmund to win their Leg 1 matchup with Benfica. The Portuguese side ended up taking the match 1-0, but this one is well and truly still alive as we head to Germany for Leg 2. While only 30% of teams who lose 1-0 in the first leg advance in Champions League history, we think Dortmund are the better side here and should make a shake of it at home.
Benfica have come up against German sides in European competitions 9 times and lost every match, scoring only 4 goals and conceding 26. The history is against Benfica here, but the luck might be. An injury to Dortmucnd star Marco Reus will see him miss the clash, while midfielder Mario Gotze is listed as probable with a thigh injury. Taking a win and a 1-0 aggregate lead into the 2nd match, we like the Portuguese side to advance as underdogs.
TIP: Benfica to advance - $2.10 at William Hill
Juventus vs FC Porto (Wednesday 15th 6.45am)
After a 0-2 away win in Portugal a few weeks ago Juventus will be strong favourites to go through to the next round going into their home leg against FC Porto on Wednesday morning. The italian side maintained a dominant 76% possession nd accured 19 shots in the win but odds are they will be a little less aggressive this week as just a draw of even a one goal loss will see them advance to the final eight.
FC Porto have neer defeated Juventus and no team in Champions League history has ever advanced after losing the first leg 2-0 at home. It's not promising at all for the Portugese side who will come up against Juventus in a hot run of form after not having lost in their domestic compeition in 12 weeks. Juventus' holding midfield duo of Miralem Pjanic and Sami Khedira should control the game here and give
TIP: Juventus to win - $1.67 at Sportsbet
Leicester vs Sevilla (Wednesday 15th 6.45am)
Although the scoreline doesnt portray it, Leicester were beaten convincingly away from home in the first leg of their matchup with Sevilla. The Spanish side maintained 73% possession and had 22 shots on goal in the victory which was highly predicted given the Foxes current run of poor form. Leiecster have turned their fortunes in the EPL in recent weeks, winning their alst two matches and they look to be safe, for now, from relegation. They've still only won 3 of their last 10 games however and Sevilla represents a much harder opponent than what they've seen in the Premier League lately.
Sevilla will relish the home game here after being away for it's last two Champions League games against Lyon and Leicester. They are currently the best of the rest in La Liga, sitting 3rd behind Real Madrid and Barcelona with 57 points. Usually by this time in the season the two juggernauts have pulled away from the pack but Sevilla are still within striking distance just 3 points behind Barcelona. Sevilla will be hunting for an early goal to all but seal their progress into the next round so we expect them to be quite aggressive at home.
TIP: Sevilla to win - $2.25 at bet365
Atletico Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen (Thursday 16th 6.45am)
Atletico Madrid claimed a handy 4-2 win over German side Bayer Leverkusen in their 1st leg which will make them firm favourites to advance going into the 2nd leg to be held in Madrid on Thursday morning. It was a great all round performance by the Spanish side with four goal scorers getting on the stats sheet. It bodes well for Atletico here as all four previous occasions where the away team has scored 4 goals in the 1st leg of a Champions League R16 matchup, they have gone on to progress.
While Bayer Leverkusen are struggling in the Bundasliga by their lofty standards, they still possess a deadly attack led by the likes of Chicharito. It was a high scoring game when these two teams met a few weeks ago and we think that both teams should be able to find the back of the net at least once each here.
TIP: Both teams to score - $1.83 at Sportsbet
Monaco vs Manchester City (Thursday 16th 6.45am)
In the highest scoring fixture of day 7 of the Champions League, Manchester City and Monaco slotted 8 goals as Man City came away with a 5-3 win at home. Monaco will get the home field advantage here as the tie heads to France Thursday morning. The French side have proven they are one of the most unstoppable offensive forces in the world this season with a ridiculous 84 goals in their domestic competition, which is the most of any side in the top 5 European leagues.
Man City are also no slouch to scoring, as we've seen them net 53 from 27 games in the Premier League. Monaco need to score at least 2 goals to progress to the next round here and we think that Man City are good for at least one goal given the agressive play style of both teams so we think it should replicate their last meeting and be another relatively high scoring match.
TIP: OVER 3.5 goals - $2 at Unibet
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