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Ladbrokes Caulfield Stakes 2000m - WFA Group 1
CRITERION: Back from a stint overseas where he raced in Hong Kong and the UK. I feel some others in the race will have the sharpness over him given he comes into this 2000m race first up for nearly 2 months and has traveled from the other side of the world. However, does have an imposing record over 2000m and if he's at his best he will give this a shake.
FAWKNER: Won a WFA Group 1 first up over 1600m before running 2nd by a lip to Mourinho in a WFA Group 1 last start. Flew home in the last 100m which means the step up to 2000m will really suit. Never finished out of the top 2 at this track and from barrier 4 he gets a lovely run on speed.
HAPPY TRAILS: Went to the line untested in the Turnbull Stakes last start. Was held up all straight and never got a clear crack at them so hard to gauge his run but the stable thought he'd win last start and sent him here because of how soft his run was last start. I was very keen on him last start so hard to jump off him but this is a tougher race.
CONTRIBUTER: No real excuses for him today. Comes into this 3rd up so should be nearing his peak fitness and steps up to 2000m. Worked home well last start but you have to question whether he can beat the likes of Kermadec who is flying. Barrier 1 slightly concerning but he's won 5 from 6 over 2000m and is due to run a big race.
PORNICHET: Ran down late last start by Kermadec but steps up to 2000m which is his pet distance. Last time he ran at 2000m is when he won the Doomben Cup dominantly but you have to question the form out of that race. Drawn well and should get a nice run but doubt he can turn the tables.
ENTIRELY PLATINUM: Been running super and his first two runs this campaign were the best of his career. Think he is better suited fresh over 1400m-1600m and I think he will struggle against the best WFA 2000m horses in the country. Expect him to lead.
KERMADEC: Absolutely flying and is the new kid on the block that is taking all before him. Impressive win in the George Main last start where he stormed home late to beat Royal Descent and Pornichet. Royal Descent has since run 2nd in a Group 1 so the form is clearly strong. Crying out for 2000m and the only problem I see for him today is the tight Caulfield track as he takes a bit of time to wind up. Probably his toughest test to date against the best proven WFA 2000m horses in the country but he can win.
MONGOLIAN KHAN: Coming along nicely heading towards the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups and his last run was encouraging. 2000m is still probably a bit short for him but I think he can definitely run a place. Keep following him forward, he's going well.
Summary:
Great race and one that is worthy of the Group 1 tag associated with it. What makes this such a competitive race is the step up to 2000m is exactly what most of the big guns have been crying out for so there is little room for excuses today. Going to stick with KERMADEC as I think he is a star and his win last start makes it hard to jump off him however FAWKNER is flying and should keep his record of finishing in the top 2 at Caulfield intact. MONGOLIAN KHAN is a good place chance stepping up in distance while HAPPY TRAILS could be the value after never seeing daylight last start. Concerns over CONTRIBUTER and PORNICHET, while CRITERION is one to keep your eye on.
1st KERMADEC ($3.20 at CrownBet)
2nd FAWKNER ($4.40 at Bet365)
3rd MONGOLIAN KHAN ($12 at Sportsbet)
4th HAPPY TRAILS ($15 at CrownBet)
* Prices correct at time of publishing
Moet & Chandon Spring Champion Stakes 2000m - Group 1
Two horse race and it's very hard to go past VANBRUGH who was dominant last start and off level weights there is no reason he shouldn't win this again today. Beat a few of these home on that occasion when settling back in the field and running on strongly to record a quite dominant 1.8L win. He should be too good once again.
Behind him I expect the Queenslander TOO GOOD TO REFUSE to put up a really good fight. He's been impressive at his last two starts and with the good draw he could very well be the horse to throw down the challenge to Vanbrugh. Those two clearly ahead of TATOOSH who ran well to finish 2nd behind Vanbrugh last start and comes up double figure odds, while MAN OF CHOICE and JADEER are other place chances.
1st VANBRUGH
2nd TOO GOOD TO REFUSE
3rd TATOOSH
4th JADEER
David Jones NBCF Toorak Handicap 1600m - Group 1
Really wide race with 18 runners in the field but it's a very weak Group 1. This is the type of race that really only looks to have 3 or 4 genuine chances but one that could throw up a long shot winner out of nowhere. Going to stick with DISPOSITION who is the horse best suited stepping up to 1600m and comes into this at peak fitness 3rd up from a spell. Gets a swing in the weights on Stratum Star and with the speed sure to be hot he maps to get a perfect run in midfield from barrier 7.
LUCKY HUSSLER was very unlucky and should have finished much closer last start in the same race. With any luck he will be charging home but from barrier 4 he will need a bit of luck and a good ride. The tempo will suit him and he looks well placed here. STRATUM STAR won the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke over Disposition last start and is flying. Sure to run very well again but gives away a bit more weight and I think Disposition can turn the tables. A big roughie in the race could be FLAMINGO STAR for Chris Waller who is priced at $26. Finished within half a length of Vashka in a Group 2 in Sydney last start and we know that Chris Waller wouldn't send him to Melbourne if he wasn't a chance. NOBLE PROTECTOR was disappointing last start but she isn't one you should rule out.
1st DISPOSITION
2nd STRATUM STAR
3rd FLAMINGO STAR
4th LUCKY HUSSLER
Schweppes Thousand Guineas 1600m - Group 1
Great race with some very good fillies in here. Going with BADAWIYA to win after her very impressive performance at Flemington last start where she won by 2 lengths. Showed a great turn of foot and although she is drawn wide here I think if she produces the same change of speed off a good pace she can beat these. PASADENA GIRL is already a Group 1 winner and has been building towards this race all along. Gets out to the mile and she has every right to be winning this. STAY WITH ME was unsuited by the race last start and if she gets a decent tempo here she has the abiity to give this a shake, while Miss Gunpowder is your likely leader but will have some work to do from barrier 11.
The one at big odds I am really interested in, however, is the South Australian filly PAYROLL. I think this girl has loads of ability and she stuck on really well behind Miss Gunpowder last start even though she was caught wide the entire race. She has shown a great turn of foot in a few of her runs and from barrier 1 she should get a nice run. I've had my eye on her ever since her debut and I think she's a great eachway bet at $19.
1st BADAWIYA
2nd PAYROLL
3rd PASADENA GIRL
4th STAY WITH ME
Beck Caulfield Guineas 1600m - Group 1
Sticking with Chris Waller's charge PRESS STATEMENT here regardless of the fact he's drawn barrier 14. I think he is way too good for these horses and I still maintain he should have given Exosphere a good run for his money in the Golden Rose. Hugh Bowman will have a plan sorted out and I think his class should prevail.
Behind that I think we will see a renewed READY FOR VICTORY who wears the blinkers for the first time. He's always been a talented colt and he might be ready to show his best with the shades on. BASSETT was impressive in winning last start and beat home a handy horse in Keen Array who has since won again. He also beat Kinglike on debut and I wouldn't be surprised to see him give it a shak.
DAL CIELO is a Group 1 winner in New Zealand and although he led last start, from barrier 8 I don't think he will lead here. He has the ability to run into a place. BON AURUM, TARZINO and TULSA are all in with a chance, while the Hawkes pair of RAGEESE and SNOOPY are the blowouts.
1st PRESS STATEMENT
2nd READY FOR VICTORY
3rd BASSETT
4th DAL CIELO
