After three weeks of the 2015 AFL season we are starting to get more of a feel for where teams are at. We managed to pick quite a few handy winners last week and hope to do the same with our AFL Round 4 betting tips
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Richmond Tigers Vs. Melbourne Demons (Friday, April 24 at 7:50pm AEST)
This big ANZAC round blockbuster at the MCG on Friday night will likely be a closer contest than some would expect. The Tigers are coming off an impressive 79-point win against the Lions last week, while the Demons showed plenty of improvement with a four-goal loss against the in-form Crows.
When these two teams met in 2014, the Demons were able to win by 17 points, despite the Tigers having more inside 50s and more scoring shots. The Tigers A-list players have yet to gel in 2015, but there were signs of better times to come last week. This is the kind of game where you can see the Demons being competitive, yet again, for just 2-3 quarters of football, while the Tigers should be able to find the class to get over the line.
Tip: Richmond by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.10 at Crownbet
St Kilda Saints Vs. Carlton Blues (Saturday, April 25 at 1:10pm NZST)
Wellington Stadium in New Zealand plays host to their adoptive home-town AFL heroes the St Kilda Saints. It would have been a rough week on the track for the Saints after being demolished by 74 points against the Magpies last week. Their opponents, the Blues, meanwhile have has a tumultuous year on and off the ground. Coach Mick Malthouse will be desperate to get the media to focus on the actual football this weekend.
While the Saints will be hoping to bounce back in New Zealand, unfortunately for them the Blues have just shown more promise this year. They won the fourth quarter by 15 points in last week’s clash against the Bombers and will be looking to build on that effort this weekend.
Tip: Carlton Blues by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.10 at Sportsbet
Essendon Bombers Vs. Collingwood Magpies (Saturday, April 25 at 2:40pm AEST)
Traditional ANZAC Day rivals Essendon and the Magpies both thrive on playing in front of a massive crowd at the MCG. It looks like the rain is going to stay away and so it should be a great day for 90,000 plus fans. Both teams are coming off victories, with the Pies thrashing the Saints and the Bombers holding off a charging Blues. Essendon didn’t look as good last week as the round before when they beat the Hawks, but nonetheless they will be looking to keep the momentum going.
With a couple of fighting fit lists this one will go down to the wire. Essendon will certainly need to put in a better fourth quarter performance than they have so far this year to ensure the victory, but ultimately they should out-class the black and white.
Tip: Essendon by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.10 at Crownbet
GWS Giants Vs. Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, April 25 at 5:40pm AEST)
This twilight game between the AFL’s newest clubs on Saturday is one of the most interesting of the round. The Giants have had a great season so far. After a great first couple of rounds, they slipped against the Swans last week, but they have still exceeded expectations. The Suns, meanwhile, are staring down the barrel of a 0-4 start to the season if they don’t pick up their game against the Giants.
Interestingly, the Suns looked much better last week without Gary Ablett than they did in the first couple of weeks with the injured Ablett. It’s almost like having Gary out there when he didn’t have the ability to lift them made the players drop their heads even further. They will take confidence from their effort against the Suns and I think they can give the Giants a run for their money.
Tip: Gold Coast Suns at the line (+17.5) - $1.90 at Ladbrokes
+ small play on Suns by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $3.45 at Labrokes
Port Adelaide Power Vs. Hawthorn Hawks (Saturday, April 25 at 7:10pm ACST)
What a massive game at Adelaide Oval on ANZAC Day evening this Saturday! It’s a preliminary final rematch that is no doubt going to be a cracking game for a full house.
Could there be a tougher game to pick this weekend?
The Hawks are favourites and deservedly so. The Power haven’t shown their best form this season and while the Hawks have been better, we wouldn’t say they have shown their best either. These teams are one and two for most possessions per game in the league, but you could see the hard-hitting Hawks looking to tackle a lot and keep the ball away from the fast moving Power. Usually we would lean towards the Hawks, but with this game in Adelaide, it’s just too hard to pick. Going to stay away from this one and watch with interest.
Tip: No Bet
Fremantle Dockers Vs. Sydney Swans (Saturday, April 25 at 6:45pm AWST)
Another blockbuster on Saturday night sees the Swans head out west to play the Fremantle Dockers. These two teams have been the most impressive of the year so far, especially the Dockers who look like they have added some attack to their game after being overly defensive during the last few seasons.
The Swans have a great record against the Dockers, winning four of the last five. All those four wins were in Sydney, however, while the one loss was at Domain Stadium. In fact, the Dockers have won six of the last eight encounters at home. Both teams have superstars that will need to fire up and ultimately with the form and the home-field advantage, we think there is some value with the Dockers.
Tip: Fremantle by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet
Brisbane Lions Vs. West Coast Eagles (Sunday, April 26 at 1:10pm AEST)
This early game on Sunday afternoon at the Gabba should be an interesting one. Both teams have plenty of injuries and despite the Lions naming Tom Rockliff this weekend, it does seem unlikely he will play. Most of West Coast’s casualties are in the backline and so lucky for them, the Lions don’t have a great forward half.
The Eagles have won the last two against the Lions at the Gabba and we think that trend will continue. The Eagles should win the contest in the middle and with Josh Kennedy kicking goals, they should get the win.
Tip: Eagles by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Crownbet
Geelong Vs. Nth Melbourne (Sunday, April 26 at 3:20pm AEST)
It might be at the cattery, but we think this will be the Nth Melbourne show on Sunday. Not only have Geelong struggled so far this year, but they come into this game without Bartel, Lonergan and maybe Stokes too. There is no doubt the Cats looked better against the Suns last week, but lets remember we haven’t seen anything resembling great footy from that team.
Nth Melbourne were brave against Port last week and will see them take confidence from that game down to Geelong. They will be hoping Ziebell gets out on the park and will miss Dal Santo and Wells, but ultimately think the Kangaroos look value here.
Tip: Nth Melbourne at the line (-8.5) - $1.92 at Crownbet
Western Bulldogs Vs. Adelaide Crows (Sunday, April 26 at 4:40pm AEST)
The undefeated Crows take on the Bulldogs in a Sunday twilight game at Etihad Stadium. The Crows are flying undefeated, while the Bulldogs were found out last week with a tough loss to the Hawks.
With the Bulldogs’ best defender Dale Morris out, Taylor Walker will be real trouble for the red, white and blue. The Bulldogs will also be without Mitch Wallis and while Bontempelli comes back in, he clearly won’t be 100% fit. Wallis would have gone to Rory Sloane who has been in fine form. This just has the makings of a blowout.
Tip: Adelaide Crows at the line (-25.5) - $1.91 at Ladbrokes
+ small play on Crows by more than 40 points (Over 40) - $2.65 at Ladbrokes
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
