Welcome to the first of our AFL betting tips for the 2015 season!
The first game of the year begins on Thursday and finally after so many controversies in the off-season we can just get back to talking about the footy.
The season begins with Carlton V Richmond and then there is a little bit of a day off on Good Friday before the round continues on Saturday. Be sure to check out our 2015 AFL Round 1 Betting Tips below, along with a look at some of the best betting promotions on offer.
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Carlton Blues Vs. Richmond Tigers (Thursday, April 2 at 7:20pm AEDT)
The 2015 season kicks off at the MCG with a big Carlton V Richmond blockbuster. They may not be the best teams, but they are certainly popular, so expect a giant crowd down as Punt Road as the footy finally begins. These two teams have a fierce rivalry and usually put on a cracking show – their last five games have been decided by around three goals or less.
We consider this one of the tougher betting games of the round, but there is no doubt the Tigers will have a better season than Carlton this year. Although Carlton showed some promise during the NAB Challenge you can’t forget how disappointing they were last season. Richmond, meanwhile, showed us some magic in the second half of the 2014 season and will be looking to build on that here in 2015. It’s important to note that Damian Hardwick has a full-strength list to choose from, while the Blues will be without Andrew Walker and Matthew Kreuzer. It will likely take a few weeks for the new-look Blues layout up forward to start to gel and we just don’t think they will find what they need against the Tigers.
Expect the magnitude of the season opener and the big crowd to make this a tough contest, but one that the Blues can’t win. Richmond in a close one.
Tip: Richmond by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.25 at Ladbrokes
Melbourne Demons Vs. Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, April 4 at 1:40pm AEDT)
This will be one of the more interesting games of the round. If Gold Coast play the way we rate them, this should be an easy win for them. We also aren’t sure Melbourne will improve as much as some punters seem to think. The Demons did do some good recruiting coming into this year, but Chris Dawes out suspended is a big loss to the Demons inexperienced forward line. Gary Ablett has been declared fit and will be keen to get back out there after missing much of late last season.
Gold Coast have won the last three encounters against the Demons and while we think Melbourne have improved during that period, the Suns have improved as well. The Demons have a few new faces who will be looking to impress, but ultimately the Suns should win this one easily.
Tip: Gold Coast Suns at the Line (-14.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Sydney Swans Vs. Essendon Bombers (Saturday, April 4 at 4:35pm AEDT)
The game everyone will be talking about and we are no exception to that. Like the rest of the footy world, regardless of the off-field controversies of the Bombers, we are just happy to see the focus shift back a little to the footy.
This is one is at ANZ Stadium and every way you look at it, the signs point to the Swans. However, the Essendon list is extremely solid, so it won’t necessarily be easy. The thing about this game is that there are too many questions over the Bombers – will they be fired up to be back out on the field and be all guns blazing? Or are the senior players a little underdone and overwhelmed by it all?
While we lean towards the Swans by three to four goals, we are going to sit this one out and see what sort of Bombers team we are looking at during these early stages of the season.
Tip: No Bet
Brisbane Lions Vs. Collingwood Magpies (Saturday, April 4 at 7:20pm AEDT)
How improved will the Lions be this year and how far will the Magpies fall?
That’s the key question in this Saturday night game at the Gabba.
There is plenty of hype around the Lions and maybe rightly so. They already seemed to be doing the right things at improving last year and now add the class of Dayne Beams to what is already one of the best young midfields in the league.
The last time these two teams met, in Round 21 of last season, the Lions won by over 60 points. The margin won’t be that big again, but we expect the Lions to win at their home ground.
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 1-39 (under 39.5) - $2.20 at Ladbrokes
Western Bulldogs Vs. West Coast Eagles (Saturday, April 4 at 7:20pm AEDT)
It’s West Coast Vs. Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night.
This is a tough one. The Bulldogs seemed to be heading in the right direction under their new coach Luke Bevridge. However, it’s hard to know what you are going to get with Tom Liberatore out for the season and so many question marks over their young list.
In saying that we don’t see West Coast being in a great spot at the moment and don’t expect them to finish anywhere near the top 8 this season.
The key factor here is that the Eagles have a great record against the Bulldogs, with the red, white and blue unable to stop Josh Kennedy and Marc Lecras from kicking goals. Bulldogs coach Bevridge places an emphasis on defence, but it’s going to be hard to plug those holes.
Tip: West Coast Eagles by 1-39 (under 39.5) - $2.25 at Ladbrokes
St Kilda Saints Vs. GWS Giants (Sunday, April 5 at 1:10pm AEDT)
There is no doubt St Kilda are going to have a rough year. They looked absolutely woeful during the NAB Challenge and didn’t look much better last season. They also lost Seb Ross and Farren Ray to injury during the preseason. The Giants, meanwhile, recruited well, adding Ryan Griffen and Joel Patfull to an already improving list. Despite losing Tom Boyd to the Bulldogs, the Giants still have some formidable power forwards in the making. The Saints will have troubles in that area.
The Giants also have a great midfield, with Griffen, Callan Ward and Adam Treloar likely to dominate the Saints. Don’t get us wrong, the Giants still need to do a lot of work to catch up to teams like the Suns, but they have a strong foundation and we can’t see the Saints being able to keep up. It’s in Melbourne and the Saints will be trying hard and probably even legitimately think they are a chance.
Tip: GWS Giants by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet
Adelaide Crows Vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos (Sunday April 5 at 2:50pm AEDT)
This has to be the toughest game of Round 1. We think the Kangaroos will definitely have a better season than the Adelaide Crows, but this is a season opener at Adelaide Oval in front of a massive crowd.
The Kangaroos lost Levi Greenwood during the offseason, but added Jarrad Waite and Shaun Higgins to what is becoming a strong list. These two teams met twice in 2014, with one win to the Roos and one to Adelaide – a game that was played at Adelaide Oval. Lean towards the Crows by a goal or two, but happy to sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet
Fremantle Dockers Vs. Port Adelaide Power (Sunday April 5 at 4:40pm AEDT)
What a massive Round 1 game.
It was Port Adelaide who knocked the Dockers out of the finals in 2014. They did it at Domain Stadium out in the West too, so they can do it again. We think Port Adelaide are ready to take the next step and stand side by side with the Swans and Hawks as elite teams this year.
The Dockers’ Ryan Crowly is out and that means players like Travis Boak and Robbie Gray will run rampant. It’s certainly not going to be easy for the Power, but we think there is definitely some value to be found considering the Dockers are slight favourites.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.65 at Sportsbet
Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Geelong Cats (Monday April 6 at 3:20pm AEDT)
There isn’t much that hasn’t been said about this rivalry. It’s undoubtedly the greatest rivalry in this era of football. For many years it was the Cats who had the wool over the Hawks, but the brown and gold have now won three of the last five games, including the most recent 2nd qualifying final in 2014.
The Hawks will be seeking their third flag in a row this year and they are good chance to get it. The Cats, however, will like their chances of getting back on top. They added Mitch Clarke to their roster and he will serve as the perfect handy decoy in the forward line with Tom Hawkins.
If Hawks win this game it will be the first time they have won three games in a row against the Cats since 2006. We lean towards that being the case, but are going to sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
