Last week was a tough week betting on NFL! There were a few games that missed by just a few points, while the Packers were looking good before Aaron Rodgers tweaked his hamstring and the game flipped on its head before the Packers were smashed by the Saints. Hopefully Week 9 of the 2014 NFL season throws out less suprises as we offer previews and NFL betting free pick advice.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (Friday at 11:25am AEST)
Two NFC South rivals get to battle it out for top spot in what looks like a good matchup for this Thursday Night Football game. The New Orleans Saints will head into Charlotte with full confidence after picking up a gutsy win over the Packers. The Carolina Panthers put in a brave effort against defending Super Bowl champs but ultimately came up short. Interestingly the line opened up in favour of the Panthers at -2.5 but after Drew Brees and Co. took down Aaron Rogers and the Packers the line has swung all the way in favour of the Saints to -3.0. This is a little puzzling considering the Saints are 0-4 on the road and this is a conference game.
The Panthers have a real shot at winning this if they can keep the ball out of Drew Brees hands. They are welcoming back running back DeAngelo Williams and we all know what Cam Newton can do on his feet.
On a week where both teams have little time to prepare I really think home crowd will be the key factor here. The Panthers will hang tough in this one. Grab the points.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (Monday at 5:00am AEST)
The Arizona Cardinals invade AT&T Stadium to battle it out with the Dallas Cowboys who may be without starting quarterback Tony Romo (questionable back). Romo missed all three practices this week as backup quarterback Brandon Weeden took over all the snaps at practice. If it was anything but a back injury I would be more confident that Romo would play but Romo underwent back surgery last year and risking him would be unnecessary.
Arizona is two games ahead in the NFC West and keeps looking better and better. Last week’s victory against Philadelphia as home underdogs was one that got my attention. The Cardinals were outgained by the Eagles and also had two minutes less in time of possession but were still able to capitalize on their opportunities. Carson Palmer has been a very safe quarterback with a QBR of 98.3 and most importantly only one interception through seven games.
Dallas will probably try to run their offense through DeMarco Murray but if there is going to be one team that can stop the run it will be the Cardinals, who are allowing just 77.9 yards of rushing offense per game. Dallas is 2-3 ATS when playing at home. Arizona is a healthier 2-1 ATS on the road. Take the birds.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (Monday at 8:25am AEST)
Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady. Broncos vs Patriots. Both teams looking for top spot in the AFC.
Sunday Night Football looks like must see TV as the Broncos charge into Gillette Stadium for marquee matchup vs the Patriots. The Weather will play a supporting role with high winds expected and cold 4 degrees forecast. I would give the edge to Brady in these conditions as he gets more zip on the ball.
Looking at this game I’m seeing a lot of even stats. Denver is 1-1 ATS away from home. New England is 2-2 ATS at home. Both teams are average when they run the ball. Both quarterbacks with a QBR over 100 and both offenses are putting up about 30 points per game. Both teams also have six wins to their name.
Patriots are 4-0 at home and Bill Bellicheck has a history of winning these types of games. I wouldn’t bet the farm on it but Patriots at home with points is value enough for me.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Monday at 12:30pm AEST)
Baltimore vs Pittsburgh is one of football’s better rivalries. Ben Roethlisberger is coming off the game of his life with 522 yards and six touchdowns in week 8 against the Indianapolis Colts. Before the week two match up earlier this season these two teams have always played in very tight games. There is a revenge factor there for Pittsburgh and it’s hard to deny the quarterback with the hot hand.
Antonio Brown is Roethlisberger’s go to receiver. Brown had 10 receptions for 133 yards and two touchdowns in week 8. If the Ariel game isn’t working for Pittsburgh they have a very good running back in Le’Veon Bell. Pittsburgh has won three of their last four.
Baltimore has a few injury concerns including Jimmy Smith at corner back.
Pittsburgh in front of a home crowd with revenge on their mind is hard to go past.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (Tuesday at 12:30pm AEST)
It’s that time of the week. Monday Night Football has the Indianapolis Colts taking on the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. At first look I thought the line makers in Vegas were on crack as the Colts are only favoured by 3 points. So I went through the facts Vegas would have gone through and these are the positives I found for the Giants. They are coming off the bye and should be well rested (or rusty). They are in front of a home crowd (where they’ve only beaten Atlanta and Houston) and that’s about it! O’ and maybe Vegas is taking into account last week’s performance by the Colts. A result that we should put in the back of our minds.
Now let’s take a look at some more interesting facts. New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin has never beaten the Colts at (0-6).The Giants are banged up and have key injuries to Victor Cruz and Rashad Jennings, they also got some mentally draining news that their best line backer Jon Beason will not return for the rest of the season. The weather also looks in favour for a number one Offense with light winds and no rain predicted.
The only real negative I found for the Colts was last week’s efforts on defense. The colts secondary got lit up by Ben Roethlisberger but even this turned into a positive as the Colts defense will get a lift with the return of corner Vontae Davis and safety Laron Landry.
The Giants have lost games to teams with winning records (Detroit, Arizona, Philly and Dallas) and only beaten teams with losing records. I put the Colts right there with the likes of Arizona. Give me Andrew Luck and the Colts.
2014 NFL Week 9 Betting Picks
Consider placing your bets at Palmerbet. In 2014, Palmerbet is offering $2 lines on all NFL games – great for Aussies looking to find some extra value betting on American Football.
Bet On: Carolina Panthers at the line (+3.0) - $2 at Palmerbet *
Bet On: Arizona Cardinals at the line (+2.5) - $2 at Palmerbet **
Bet On: New England Patriots at the line (+3.0) - $2 at Palmerbet *
Bet On: Pittsbrugh Steelers at the line (+2.0) - $2 at Palmerbet *
Bet On: Indianapolis Colts at the line (-3.0) - $2 at Palmerbet ***
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
