2014 NFL – Week 5 Preview and Betting Picks
Week 5 of the 2014 NFL season begins with Thursday Night Football battle between the Vikings and the Packers. If you have been following my tips all year you will know that we were in big profit after the first three weeks and then had a bad run last week – though we are still in profit overall! You can check out my year-to-date free pick NFL results here. For now, it’s onto another week with my 2014 NFL Week 5 preview and betting picks. As usual, I will be looking at the Friday morning game, followed by several games on Monday and then finishing it up with the Tuesday morning game.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (Friday at 10:25am AEST)
Thursday Night Football heads to Lambeau Field where the Green Bay Packers host division rivals the Minnesota Vikings. Last week Green Bay dismantled another division rival in the Chicago Bears. Aaron Rogers threw for 302 yards and 4 touchdowns although the score may look a little deceiving as the Bears’ Jay Cutler was back his old self throwing a couple of interceptions. In regards to who the spotlight is on this Thursday night, Rogers is currently taking a back seat to rookie quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings, Teddy Bridgwater. An up and coming star, Bridgwater threw for 317 yards on debut but also sprained his ankle as the Vikings notched up their second victory against the high flying Falcons.
I believe Bridgwater will play as he practiced on Wednesday and remains upbeat. Although this bet will be a game time decision or until it is confirmed he will be on the field.
The Packers are ranked 27th in rushing defense at home.If rookie running backs Jerick Mckinnon and Matt Asiata can take care of business like last week, then Bridgwater’s decision making will be the key deciding element for this bet. Therefore without Bridgwater it is a NO-BET.
With Bridgewater at the helm for the Vikings, in a NFC North rivalry game with two teams that really haven’t established a true identity this season, we recommend taking the points.
Note: If Christian Ponder starts for the Vikings, we are leaning Packers -7.5, but official play will be no-bet.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (Monday at 4:00am AEST)
They say that a week is a “long time in football” and both Chicago and Carolina will be trying to forget their week 4 efforts. Baltimore trounced Carolina 38-10 and Chicago shot themselves in the foot late against the Packers in front of a home crowd.
The Bears are currently 2-2 with both of their wins coming on the road. Carolina is also 2-2. Both teams are almost identical on defense in total yards, allowing 373 yards per game. However Chicago will get a boost on defense when Jared Allen returns this week. Allen is known for his pass rushing ability and with Cam Newton very banged up it won’t take much to rattle Newton.
Not only is Carolina ranked 25th on defense they are also ranked 25th in Offense and to make matters worse running back DeAngelo Williams injured his ankle last week and is listed as out for this week. Chicago on the other hand have a far more balanced and potent offense.
This game feels like it could be a close one but until the Bears show signs of weakness on the road we will gladly take the 2.5 points and pray Cutler goes back to his early season form and not the interception throwing Cutler we saw in the 4th quarter last week
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (Monday at 7:25am AEST)
Alex Smith will get his chance to rub it in to the 49ers franchise as the Kansas City Chiefs head over to Levi’s Stadium to face Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers. Smith was drafted first overall by the 49ers back in 2005 but lost his spot to a younger more flashy Colin Kaepernick.
Here’s their Stats since 2013
Smith Kaepernick
13-6 W-L 14-6
61.6 comp% 60.4
221 passYPG 205
30/10 TD/INT 27/12
90.2 PassRate 91.5
Currently Kaepernick is on a 114 million dollar contract. Compared to 68 million dollars for Smith. Would you pay an extra 46 million for Kaepernick after looking at these stats? That’s a lot of Jersey sales.
Smith is solid. Smith is safe. He has completed 76.5 % including 6 touchdowns in his last two games vs the Patriots and Dolphins.
49ers may be without right tackle Anthony Davis and tight end Vernon Davis. Both did not practice Wednesday. I see a tight game that could come down to a field goal. Chiefs for two units and we are also going to sprinkle a little chedder on the Money Line.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (Monday at 11:30am AEST)
This is going to be an interesting game. The Patriots are a mediocre 2-2 but the Boston media are treating it like their 0-4.Tom Brady has been well below par with a QBR of 79.1 and a 59% completion rate. That Logan Mankins trade looks like a super douchbag move by the Patriots head office but I believe their problems run deeper than just that.
Cincinnati are the real deal.
Ranked 1st in the league in points allowed the Bengals are now ranked in the top 3 teams in the NFL power rankings. Defensively you cannot fault them but they are no slouch on Offense either ranking 7th in total yards averaging 384 yards per game with 26.7 points.
The line opened up at New England -2.5 and now sits at Cincinnati -1.0. I just can’t find a way for the Patriots to win this game. As good as the duo of Brady and Bellicheck have been in the past they just don’t have the weapons on Offense to win against the best defense in the league.
Seattle Seahawks at Washinton Redskins (Tuesday at 11:30am AEST)
Believe it or not the last time Seattle defeated Washington in the regular season was over 16 years ago (Sep 20 1998). Meanwhile Washington is coming off a terrible game at home in Week 4 losing to the Giants 45 -14. If Kirk Cousins had trouble with the Giants defense in particular their secondary wait until he faces the reigning super bowl champs.
The Seahawks’ defense is ranked first against the run and second in passing. Coach Pete Carroll has given them the entire week off (for the bye) and we will see if it has a positive effect. I believe it will.
Russell Wilson looks like a veteran once again this year. Although his numbers are moderate he makes great decisions and has a QBR rating of 108.9. Wilson has never lost a MNF game with a record of 3-0 including 7 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Although the Redskins have hit that desperation mode early, Kirk Cousins won’t be able to handle Seattle’s defense and I trust Russell Wilson to take care of business on the offensive side of things.
2014 NFL Week 5 Best Betting Picks
Consider placing your bets at Palmerbet. In 2014, Palmerbet is offering $2 lines on all NFL games – great for Aussies looking to find some extra value betting on American Football.
Vikings at the line (+7.5) (Bridgewater must start) - $2 at Palmerbet * NO BET
Bears at the line (+2.5) - $2 at Palmerbet **
Chiefs at the line (+5.0) - $2 at Palmerbet **
Bengals at the line (-1.0) - $2 at Palmerbet ***
Seahawks at the line (-7.0) - $2 at Palmerbet **
