It's been a rough few weeks betting on the NFL, but hopefully we can turn it around in the last few rounds of the season and finish off how we started. Be sure to read on and check out our NFL Week 14 preview and free NFL betting picks.
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (Friday at 12:25pm AEST)
Both the Cowboys and Bears will be trying to rebound from pathetic Thanksgiving Day efforts. The Cowboys were picked apart by the Eagles and the defense is showing signs of caving in. Even though the Cowboys have a perfect road record the line is moving the other way. It opened up at-4.5(DAL) and is now down to -3.5.
Last week I thought Chicago would run the ball through Matt Forte like they did the previous week in their win against Minnesota. How very wrong I was. Forte had just 5 carry’s while Cutler aired it out 48 times with 2 interceptions. Matt Forte (28 years old) is now considered a veteran of the game, he missed Wednesdays practice but it has been reported that it was merely a “veterans day off” I presume they will be using Forte a whole lot more than 5 times against the Cowboys poor run defense.
Tony Romo and Dallas have been great on the road this year yet the line is only a field goal. This worries me. The odds makers in Vegas may be predicting a late season collapse from Dallas and I’m sensing the same. On a cold day at Soldier Field take the points.
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (Monday at 5:00am AEDT)
This line just looks and feels wrong. The Cleveland Browns host the best Offensive team in the country the Indianapolis Colts yet the line is only a field goal in favour of the Colts. I think at times this season I may have outsmarted myself looking into how and why Vegas are setting the line.
In years gone by I believe home field was such a big advantage for NFL teams especially defensively (and it seems Vegas still overvalue it) but now with the NFL expanding and ticket prices going up the typical fanatical fan is getting driven away and replaced with corporate sales. Which translates to less real fans, less noise for visiting teams to deal with and maybe even less atmosphere.
Cleveland coach Mike Pettine seems to be spending more time thinking about what quarterback to start rather than preparing for Andrew Luck and the Colts. After many days of deliberation it looks like Brian Hoyer has got the nod. Although I can see Johnny Football being subbed in if Hoyer has a couple of bad offensive series.
The Colts can clinch a playoff spot with a win and some help from Houston. Andrew Luck is still firing on all cylinders passing the 4000 yard mark last week against the Washington Redskins. Luck had 370 yards with 5 TD’s. I don’t see this being a close game at all and this will be my NFL 'game of the year' free pick.
Indy has been undervalued by Vegas all year (9-3 ATS) and it looks like they are once again undervalued here.
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (Monday at 8:25am AEDT)
The Eagles looked impressive against Dallas but I’m still not sold on them. They make average defenses look very bad but when they have played real defenses such as Arizona and San Francisco they have come up short.
Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” is really starting to look like last season’s super bowl winning defense. Seattle has won five of their last six including big victories over Arizona and San Francisco.
Eagles' quarterback Mark Sanchez will have his work cut out for him all day against this calibre of defense and it may also be a small let down spot for the Eagles.
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (Monday at 12:30pm AEST)
It’s unfortunate for the San Diego Chargers that the Green Bay Packers beat the Patriots last week. New England rarely loses two in a row and Tom Brady owns a perfect 5-0 record against the Chargers.
After losing to Green Bay the Patriots flew straight to California to begin preparations for this game. Most teams would have gone home first but Bill Belichick knows the importance of game preparation. The Patriots match up well against any team and even though they lost last week in Wisconsin I still rank them as the number one team in the NFL.
The line is right in the middle of that meaningless bracket of lines between -3.5 and -5.5.
With the extra west coast preparation time I believe the Patriots are at least a touchdown better team. I have them winning 35-27
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (Tuesday at 12:30pm AEST)
Green Bay was outstanding last week defeating New England and their stocks could not be higher right now. However this is a letdown spot for the Packers after a big emotional win they now have to get pumped to play the (5-7) Atlanta Falcons.
Although the Falcons are below .500 they are in first place in the NFC South and with New Orleans losing to Carolina today anything can happen in this division. Atlanta has a bad name this season but since they came back from the bye in week 9 they have been a solid football club. In their last four games they have won three and lost one and that loss was a close game against Cleveland. Last week’s win against Arizona shouldn’t be overlooked as Matt Ryan threw for 361 yards and they rushed for another 142 yards against one of the better defensive teams in the league.
Of course I think Green Bay will win this game especially at Lambeau Field (6-0) but I don’t think they will blow Atlanta out. Although Oakland beat the 49ers on Monday, so I guess anything is possible.
2014 NFL Week 14 Betting Picks
Consider placing your bets at Palmerbet. In 2014, Palmerbet is offering $2 lines on all NFL games – great for Aussies looking to find some extra value betting on American Football.
Bet On: Chicago Bears at the line (+3.5) - $2 at Palmerbet **
Bet On: Indianapolis Colts at the line (-3.0) - $2 at Palmerbet ****
Bet On:Seattle Seahawks at the line (+2.5) - $2 at Palmerbet **
Bet On: New England Patriots at the line (-3.5) - $2 at Palmerbet *
Bet On: Atlanta Falcons at the line (+13.0) - $2 at Palmerbet *
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
