The day all footy fans have been waiting for is almost here as the 2014 AFL Grand Final takes place this Saturday, September 27th. It’s a familiar clash of the modern era – the Sydney Swans Vs. Hawthorn Hawks. It’s going to be a huge day for footy fans and punters alike. The team at Before You Bet offer up a 2014 AFL Grand Final preview, some betting tips, our Norm Smith medal predictions and advise our readers of some of the best 2014 AFL Grand Final betting promotions.
2014 AFL Grand Final Preview
Sydney Swans Vs. Hawthorn Hawks.
It’s pretty much the AFL Grand Final most of us guessed it would be at the start of the year.
The big story in the media this week is, of course, Buddy Franklin. The gun former Hawk is now playing against his old team in the same team that defeated the Hawks in the 2012 Grand Final. It’s the perfect story for the footy media to drool over after the well-publicised ground-breaking contract Buddy received to leave the Hawks for the Swans. We aren’t going to be able to avoid that storyline and it’s hard not to get sucked into it. However, there is plenty of other reasons to get excited about the 2014 AFL Grand Final.
The Hawks and the Swans continue to be two of the most successful teams of the past decade. Both have won two premierships in that period, with the Hawks last premiership being just twelve months ago against the Dockers and the Swans last one being against the Hawks 12 months before that. If you recall that 2012 AFL Grand Final, you will remember it was a nail biter in which the Swans won by 10 points.
Will it be that close this time around?
Punters seem to think it might be as the line has steadied at -8.5 points in Sydney’s favour. However, I expect that line to maybe move to double figures by the time the game kicks off on Saturday.
Do the Swans deserve to be favourites?
The short answer is yes. They have been the best team all year and have made easy work of the finals series so far. You can’t count the Hawks out though. This is one of those “against all odds” stories as the Hawks have been plagued with injuries all year, yet have still managed to get it done. Their fit-list is looking fairly prime at the moment (outside of a questionable Cyril Rioli) and let’s not forget how experienced the majority of this team is in September.
The Swans had it easy last week with a 71-point victory over the Kangaroos, while the Hawks did it tough in a 3-point win over the Port Adelaide Power. The Swans get a slight advantage because of this as they were able to take their foot off the pedal during the late stages of last week’s game and manage their fitness a little. The Hawks meanwhile had to fit it out in a gritty battle up to the last moments.
The two times the Swans and the Hawks met in 2014 saw one victory to each team. The Swans won in Sydney by 19 points in Round 8, while the Hawks claimed a win by 10 points in Melbourne in Round 18. The Hawks were gritty and tough in that victory and will need to find more of the same if they want to win the 2014 AFL Grand Final.
Both teams are silky through the midfield, in different ways, but the key question is whether or not the Hawks can stifle the Swans influence up forward. Buddy has kicks 5 goals, 12 behinds combined in the two meetings with his old team this year. If he gets that much of the ball in front of the sticks, but is a little more accurate, you can’t see the Hawks being able to win. Kurt Tippet is also looking close to cherry-ripe and if Sam Reid and Adam Goodes can keep spinning their cogs, it’s going to be a giant headache for the Hawks.
The Hawks aren’t no slouch up forward either and if Jarryd Roughead and co can get a hold of the Swans’ defenders, the red and white will find it just as hard. You would probably suggest there is a little more ‘x factor’ in the Swans forward line, but the Hawks know how to get it done with some very solid players inside the arch.
It would be very hard to suggest that this will be a walkover for the Swans, but you it’s just as hard not to lean in their favour. It’s certainly going to be a cracking game and we think it will be decided by three to four goals maximum and that the Swans will be the ones holding up the premiership cup late on Saturday afternoon.
Prediction: Sydney by 17 points
Norm Smith Medal: Ben McGlynn (Paying $17-1 at Ladbrokes)
Bet On: Sydney Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.20 at Ladbrokes **
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
