The UFC heads back to Brazil this weekend for a pay-per-view card that may not be as stacked as UFC 300 but still gives us an exciting title fight and plenty of matchups that are sure to produce some wild moments. In the main event, Aussie Steve Erceg gets his shot at UFC gold when he takes on Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja. In the co-main, Rio’s own Jose Aldo takes on Jonathan Martinez and Anthony Smith and Vitor Petrino are set to go toe-to-toe in what is sure to be fireworks. We take a look at my best bets below.
UFC 301 Predictions & Tips
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg
While I would love Steve Erceg to get up he has been thrown in the deep end here in what is one of the more perplexing title fights put together in recent memory. Alexandre Pantoja has no real weaknesses in his game and has been a thorn in the side of the fighters atop the Flyweight division. He is a strong striker with some sneaky grappling and can go a hard five rounds. It is hard to see a way he is dethroned that isn’t by the way of finish.
That is exactly why they gave him Erceg who comes into this fight on the back of a brutal knockout win over Matt Schnell. Erceg has some strong striking and decent grappling but I would say he is outmatched in each area of the fight game by Pantoja. I would love for the Aussie to get the upset win but I just don’t see a viable route to victory.
Alexandre Pantoja to win
$1.50 (4 Units)
Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo
I am of the belief that this fight will be the last time UFC fans see the great Jose Aldo in the Octagon and I am backing in front of his native Brazil he goes out with his hand raised. The Brazilian originally retired in 2022 after a loss to Merab Dvalishvili but has decided to make a comeback. In the last few years before his retirement, he beat the likes of Rob Font, Marlon Vera and Pedro Munhoz, all top contenders in the division.
His opponent here Jonathan Martinez is on the upward trajectory, coming into this fight on a six-fight win streak. Martinez is a fast striker and a sucker for leg kicks. Ironically, he comes against one of the most effective leg kickers in UFC history.
In my opinion, if Aldo hasn’t regressed from 2022 it is his fight to lose, however, that is a big if. He is a more technical striker, hits harder and is arguably more durable than his opponent and I am stunned he is an underdog, especially in his hometown. Back Aldo to go out on a high.
Jose Aldo to win
$2.40 (3 Units)
Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho
I am a sucker for tipping Paul Craig as the Scotsman has come through for me many times throughout the years and I am going to back him in again this weekend. I am a big fan of Craig at Middleweight and his loss to top prospect Brendan Allen isn’t too much of a worry as I believe he is in the top five Middleweights in the world.
Caio Borralho is 5-0 in the UFC but I don’t believe he is anything special. In this fight, he is going to have to go a hard three rounds with a fighter who will push the pace and action and I wouldn’t be surprised if he succumbs to said pressure. Back Craig at massive underdog odds.
Paul Craig to win
$5 (1.5 Units)
