The UFC will mark its debut in Cleveland with a heavyweight title defense from one of its favourite sons, Stipe Miocic. However most of the casual eyes will be on CM Punk, a former WWE champion who will be making his MMA debut on Sunday’s undercard. Read on for fight breakdowns on the entire card in our UFC 203 betting tips article.
Stipe Miocic (C) 15-2 vs Alistair Overeem (#3) 41-14
The UFC’s most coveted prize again goes on the line, but for the first time since February 2010 this heavyweight title fight won’t involve Cain Velasquez, Junior Dos Santos or Fabricio Werdum. Stipe Miocic became the first Clevelander to win a major sporting title since 1964 (beating the Cav’s by 1 month) when he KOed Werdum to claim the heavyweight belt. His first title defense will be against experienced Dutch kickboxing master Alistair Overeem. Miocic is a hard-nosed wrestle boxer with exceptional athleticism for a heavyweight. A former golden gloves champion, Miocic has excellent boxing fundamentals. He uses feints, footwork and explosive changes of direction to deliver devastating counters. He is less effective when he is the one who has to initiate exchanges, which may be a problem against Overeem who likes to fight from the outside. He is also an effective wrestler who prefers to clinch and chain wrestle than go for the blast double. He remains heavy in top position and can rain down significant ground and pound, but rarely looks to improve his position or chase submissions. Miocic’s biggest advantages will be his chin and cardio; he recently went 5 hard rounds with Dos Santos and was able to maintain a high pressure game while eating JDS’ biggest shots.
Alistair Overeem is the proverbial glass cannon. A 6’4 kickboxing colossus capable of knocking out any man, but the combination of heavyweight punching power and lack of durability have seen him KOed in each of his three UFC loses. Overeem once concurrently held the K1 kickboxing and Strikefore MMA belts and he is the best pure striker in heavyweight MMA. Failed drug tests and KO losses marred his early UFC run, but he has since put together 4 consecutive victories to earn this title shot including back-to-back KO victories against former heavyweight champions Junior Dos Santos and Andrei Arlovski. Overeem’s recent string of victories has coincided with a move to Jackson’s MMA and the use of a more calculated game plan; opting to stick and move rather than relentlessly push forward. Staying at range means we don’t get to see much of his devastating clinch work, but he is just as dangerous in the open octagon and possesses a multitude of weapons capable of getting a finish. That last time Miocic fought a K1 champion, Mark Hunt, he was able to neutralize the kickboxer’s weapons with wrestling. However unlike Hunt, Overeem is also an adept submission grappler, with 19 career wins by way of submission. He has a particularly nasty guillotine, which may come into play when Miocic looks to chain wrestle against the fence. He also has excellent takedown defense and he doesn’t mind opponents going for takedowns as it brings them into knee territory. Overeem certainly carries the firepower advantage in this fight, but his questionable cardio and chin mean it’s far from a sure thing.
Prediction: I expect this one to play out tentatively at first, with Overeem fighting long and Miocic looking for counters. Miocic has shown off an impressive chin, but Overeem has the power to crack it and I think he needs a knockout in the first few rounds to get a win here. Miocic’s cardio and grinding style will wear on Overeem and I expect him to dominate if the fight goes into the championship rounds. Miocic needs to fight a high pressure game and intelligently use his wrestling to avoid the power shots and sap his opponent’s energy. Whether it’s with an early counter or late ground and pound, I like Stipe Miocic to get a KO victory and defend his title in front of an adoring Cleveland crowd. Stipe Miocic by 4th TKO.
Tip: Stipe Miocic by KO - $2.00 at CrownBet
Fabricio Werdum (#1) 20-6 vs Travis Browne (#6) 18-4
Fabricio Werdum relinquished his heavyweight title in devastating fashion to Miocic when he was knocked unconscious in front of a packed Brazilian soccer stadium. He clearly underestimated Miocic in that fight and suffered dire consequences. He campaigned to be on this card to be in prime position to call out the new heavyweight champion and earn another shot at UFC gold. His opponent, Travis Browne is coming off an equally demoralizing loss after he was soundly beaten by Velasquez at UFC 200. Browne had no answer for Velasquez in that fight and was able to mount almost zero offense. Werdum is in the prime of his career, once solely a submission specialist; he is now one of the most well rounded fighters in the heavyweight division. He is head and shoulders above all other heavyweights on the mat and this allows him to strike with impunity, not having to fear over-extending and being taken down. However this reckless style got him into trouble against Miocic as he ran headlong into a perfectly timed counter. Werdum will no doubt have learnt a lot from that fight.
Travis Browne was once one of the hottest prospects in the heavyweight division, but his career has regressed significantly in recent times. He has lost 3 of his last 5 fights and hasn’t registered a legitimate win since Brendan Schaub in 2014. He has also followed his girlfriend, Ronda Rousey to Glendale fight club, a camp notorious for being detrimental to fighter’s developments.
He is still 6’6 and a dangerous striker, but unless he comes in a significantly improved fighter in just 4 weeks, he is in for a tough day at the office.
Prediction: Werdum is better at almost every aspect of MMA than Browne. He can beat him standing and is world’s better on the mat. He is also holds a recent, one-sided victory over Browne. This heavy weight MMA so anything can happen, but Werdum is my strongest lock for this entire card. Fabricio Werdum by 3rd TKO.
Tip: Fabricio Werdum multid w/ Calderwood/Andrade over 1.5 rounds - $2.23 at Sportsbet
CM Punk 0-0 vs Mickey Gall 2-0
Former WWE champion, CM Punk will make his UFC debut 2 years after quitting the wrestling world to pursue MMA full time. Other pro wrestling stars that have successfully made the transition such as Brock Lesnar, Bobby Lashley and Frank Shamrock have all been blessed with extensive college wrestling experience and other-worldly physical gifts. Punk on the other hand has no martial arts background and stands a modest 6’1 and 170 pounds. His opponent is up and coming grappler Mickey Gall who earned this golden ticket to the UFC after being spotted by Dana White while making his own pro MMA début on a regional card in Philadelphia. Other than his high flying exploits in the WWE, there is no tangible evidence to try and make an educated guess as to how CM Punk will perform in the octagon. He is fighting out of the super talented Roufusport in Milwaukee and is no doubt learning plenty under the tutelage of Duke Roufus, the Pettis brothers and Ben Askren. However a 37 year old with a bad back, making his MMA debut on the biggest stage possible, is a tall order.
It’s almost as hard to assess Mickey Gall’s skillset. He is no doubt a talented grappler, with both his wins coming by quick 1st round submission, but his level of competition has been subpar at best. The best example of his skills I could find online was a competitive grappling battle he had with the BJJ prodigy Gordon Ryan. Gall is a solid young prospect, but I don’t know where a win here takes him. He is still too green in his MMA journey to face UFC caliber fighters and there won’t be many other 0-0 former pro-wrestlers for him to square up against.
Prediction: With the caveat that I have next to no idea how these two are going to look in the octagon, the most likely outcome has to be Mickey Gall by submission. Usually I’d say avoid betting this fight at all costs, but I think there is value to be found. The oddsmaker’s think it’s going to be over quick, but I’m going to put my faith in Duke Roufus and assume he wouldn’t let Punk into the octagon if he wasn’t at least capable of hanging with a fighter of Gall’s caliber. I’m going to play the over. Mickey Gall by 3rd submission.
Bet: Over 1.5 rounds - $2.60 at CrownBet
Urijah Faber (#2) 33-9 vs Jimmie Rivera (#12) 19-1
In the second fight of the night, Urijah Faber will look to bounce back from his one-sided loss to Dominick Cruz with a victory of surging batamnweight Jimmie Rivera. Faber has been at the pointy end of the lower weight divisions for nearly a decade. During that time he has been a bettor’s dream, always beating lower level competition, but consistently falling short against the cream of the crop. The captain of Team Alpha Male, Faber’s skill set is well known at this point. A strong wrestler with excellent chokes and cardio for days who does his best work in transitions. The reason for his inability to achieve UFC gold is probably down to his lack of striking evolution. At 37, we are yet to see that sudden skill decline that catches up with all fighters, but he does seem to be slowing down in a number of areas. Make no mistake, Faber is a tough out for anyone in the division and a win here will catapult Rivera into the title picture.
I have been high on Jimmie Rivera since his fight with the uber dangerous Pedro Munhoz. He has won all 3 of his UFC fights and is riding an 18 fight win streak. Rivera is almost exclusively a striker, but he has shown off enough grappling defense to stay out of trouble against a number of excellent submission artists. Built like a fire hydrant, Rivera looks like a brawler, but instead employs a technically excellent, high output striking attack. He throws almost exclusively in combination, which is in stark contrast to Faber’s loopy overhands from the outside. He also uses excellent head movement and recover’s well when he does get touched. At only 5’4 I think he will run into a lot of trouble against long fighter’s with a good jab, but Faber is certainly not that striker. He does like to work against the fence, but I think that would be ill-advised against Faber.
Prediction: Rivera will have a big advantage striking at range and should cruise to a volume based decision if the fight spends the majority of time there. Faber needs to force transitions and scrambles to try and get dominant positions or force a submission. I’m backing Rivera’s wrestling to hold up and he should earn a competitive and entertaining decision, signaling the end of Faber’s reign at the top echelon of the sport. Jimmie Rivera by 29-28 decision.
Tip: Jimmie Riveria by decision - $1.80 at Sportsbet
Jessica Andrade (#6) 14-5 vs Joanne Calderwood (#7) 11-1
The card will be kicked off by two of the highest output volume striker in the women’s straw weight division. Scottish Muay Thai fighter Joanne Calderwood will do battle with Brazilian power puncher Jessica Andrade. Andrade used to be an undersized batamnweight, but she looked excellent in her straw weight debut finishing former title contender Jessica Penne with strikes. Andrade is particularly exciting brawler; she constantly pushes forward winging punches with bad intentions. Her lack of footwork, feints and head movement leave her open for counters, but there aren’t too many 125 pound women capable of really hurting her. She attacks well to the body and head, and is good at forcing a stoppage once she has an opponent hurt. Her wrestling is under-rated and she has an excellent guillotine.
Joanne Calderwood is a dynamic striker who fights out of the excellent Tristar gym in Montreal with Firas Zahabi and GSP. She entered the ultimate fighter reality TV show as one of the favourites, but fell short against Rose Namajunas. Calderwood does her best work at distance with a varied kicking game and strong straight punches; she is even finished Valerie Letourneau with brutal body kicks. Her Muay Thai background also makes her dangerous in the clinch and a height advantage in this fight will only aid that. Calderwood likes to utilize her grappling, but isn’t a strong wrestler and will leave herself open to Andrade’s guillotine if she shoots for sloppy takedowns.
Prediction: Calderwood is a notorious slow starter and Andrade will look to put pressure on from the opening bell, so I expect the early stages to go the way of the Brazilian. Andrade also likes to push forward, so I don’t think Calderwood will have much of a chance to get a rhythm going from the outside. Andrade is susceptible to counters, so once Calderwood gets in the groove there will be openings. She should also have a grappling advantage, especially if the extra weight cut hurts Andrade’s cardio. This one will be tight, but I favour the underdog Calderwood ever so slightly to either get a late submission or win 2 rounds on the judges’ cards. Joanne Calderwood 29-28 decision.
Tip: Over 1.5 rounds multid with Fabricio Werdum – $2.23 at Sportsbet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
