The Run to The Rose will attract plenty of eyes at Rosehill this Saturday as the 3yo’s prepare for the Golden Rose in 2 weeks’ time. Multiple other group-level races including the Sheraco will make this a crucial meeting in determining which horses have returned well for their spring preparations!
As always, Blake Lalor provides his thoughts and betting strategy for the card at Rosehill below. Also, make sure to head over to our Racing Tips page for more Saturday best bets from around the country.
Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, September 9th 2023
Race 1: Midway Bm72 Hcp – 1200m (11:50 AEST)
(3) Defiant Heart goes on top in a race I’m not overly keen to play into to start the day. This will more-than-likely be a race where track pattern can be identified for future races on the card. Defiant Heart is a reasonable price considering his overall record and setup here.
(8) Bunker Hut is the favourite but a loose one and doesn’t show many signs of conviction from his previous races. He was thrown into a G3 GC Guineas last prep so someone thinks something of him.
(11) Iron Man beat a subsequent winner in his trial in Mirra View. This doesn’t mean as much as it would if it was race form but it’s a positive sign nonetheless. Barrier 1 is sure to help.
Race 2: Highway C3 Hcp – 1400m (12:25 AEST)
(8) Take The Kitty has to break through eventually. He’s been running like a winner without any luck in his last few but it’s becoming costly as he hasn’t actually finished first since coming to town from Murwillumbah. We go again.
(11) Atmospheric Rock was met with heavy support 1st up at Randwick and stormed home late on a day where some horses appeared to struggle to make ground. He looks the main danger in this on the backup.
(12) Miss Thatcher is a mare I’ve kept an eye on lately and she’s been running well without jumping out of the ground. If things fall into place for her in barrier 2 she could be a chance.
(8) Take The Kitty - Win
$2.60 (3 Units)
Race 3: Bm78 Hcp – 2400m (13:00 AEST)
(1) Too Much Caviar was tough in defeat to Wineglass Bay last time. He should get a comfortable lead again here and without Wineglass Bay to run him down, he can lead all the way this time.
(2) Duke Of Hastings looks as though he’ll try to pull off what Wineglass Bay did to this favourite last time. That said, he had all the breaks last time against weaker horses than Too Much Caviar so looks like he’ll need to improve to beat this favourite.
(5) Yukon was poor on face value last time in the same race as the favourite. He gets another go here and did run 2nd prior to his last run. Can’t rule out.
(1) Too Much Caviar - Win
$2 (2 Units)
Race 4: Bm78 Hcp – 1500m (13:35 AEST)
(3) Gracilistyla must win today. His run of 2nd placings is bringing back Tom Melbourne PTSD. The form out of his prep has been good with numerous subsequent winners. The horse needs time to wind up so hopefully Nash gets him to the outside and he can let down.
(2) Unspoken is some danger here but shouldn’t be 100% with his targets likely to be over 2000m or more. His trial was sharp and he has run well fresh in the past so don’t discount.
(11) Venelope can be a factor here from a better gate than last time. She almost finished on terms with Ivan’s Hero who she draws inside of now and gets blinkers applied. Overs?
(3) Gracilistyla - Win
$3.40 (2 Units)
Race 5: Bm78 Hcp – 1800m (14:10 AEST)
(9) Howgoodareyou has the form lines to deserve favouritism here. He beat Principessa 2 back who then bolted in against much of the opposition from race 4. Chorlton Lane and Amor Victorious among other horses have also won since losing to this horse. Should lead here and be hard to run down.
(2) Marquess was lucky to beat Gracilistyla who goes around in the race prior. Gracilistyla’s performance in race 4 may be indicative of this horse’s chances, but Gracilistyla would probably have to bolt in to warrant this horse trumping the favourite.
(8) Holstein has struck some form and is the 3rd runner in this field looking for a hat-trick of wins. Meets some tough competition but current form couldn’t be better.
Race 6: Group 2 Sheraco Stakes – 1200m (14:45 AEST)
(5) Zapateo will start favourite here. Last time she met I Am Me was in the G1 Oakleigh where she was 50 horses wide all the way and stuck on to finish just behind her rival. Now she’s drawn gate 3, has trialled enormously and can camp right on the back of I Am Me in the run.
(6) I Am Me is the 2nd horse in what looks mostly like a 2 horse race here. She’ll be up the front making her own luck and if she gets in from gate 7 should be tough to catch.
(2) Espiona is a huge price for a recent Coolmore winner and clear Group 1 mare. She’s going to have targets around the mile later in her prep and has been kept quiet in her trials but she’s classier than most of these.
Race 7: Group 3 Ming Dynasty Quality – 1400m (15:20 AEST)
(5) Encap should be a clear favourite here. Assuming the Up And Coming Stakes is the right form line, Encap was held up and catching Tom Kitten in the final 100m of the race to now step up an extra 100m in distance. He’s also drawn barrier 1 here and should get all favours in the run provided he gets some luck in the straight.
(3) Tom Kitten was good returning as mentioned but risks bouncing 2nd up off a tough return run. He also draws gate 15 here which makes winning a much more difficult task. Too short.
(12) Congregation failed in the J.J. Atkins last prep but was able to beat Tutta La Vita prior to that. Looks to have returned well in trials and is a huge price to see what he can do here.
Race 8: Group 2 Run To The Rose – 1200m (15:55 AEST)
(2) Cylinder is on top here after a narrow victory down south 1st up. Nash for cash has a book full of good rides and this is one of them. The horse is short on the back of his narrow win in Melbourne but he’s sure to improve.
(1) Militarize returns after back-to-back wins at group 1 level last prep. How is he $18 here? He’ll surely be looking for further and this won’t be his grand final but class should take him a long way surely.
(10) Nadal is the roughie I like here who draws well and can time his run from behind horses to show the electric turn of foot he used to break his maiden last start on the Kensington track.
Race 9: Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes – 1300m (16:35 AEST)
(7) Madame Pommery gets the aid of gate 1 here and rocketed home up the rail last time to finish 2nd to Pericles. She would’ve beat that horse with clearer running and will have a fitness advantage over most of her opposition here. Good go.
(9) Argentia is in a similar boat to the top pick here with a fitness edge. She’s a proven sprinter too which cannot be said about some of the others.
(14) Waterford is a sneaky runner here having been gelded in the break. Gate 3 will suit him and he’s a lightly raced horse who looked yet to hit his mark last prep. Maybe this prep?
(7) Madame Pommery - E/W
$7/$2 (1 Unit)
Race 10: Bm88 Hcp – 1100m (17:15 AEST)
(13) Smashing Eagle is going to win black-type races very soon. His figures out of his luckless 2nd placing last start were mouth-watering running the fastest last 800, 600, 400 and 200m of the entire day (and not by small amounts). He deserves this step up in grade and catches a lot of fresh horses in a race with good speed up front. Huge chance.
(2) Maotai may be a touch of overs in this given his overall level of experience and the improvement he showed returning last preparation as a gelding. Fresh record is sublime.
(4) Red Card is favourite and worth putting in the numbers here. Has barely put a foot wrong and looks set for another good prep. She could end up in a tricky spot with some pace under her but interested to see what happens.
(13) Smashing Eagle - E/W
$5/$2 (2 Units)
