Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Randwick on Saturday, September 5th.
Randwick plays host to three Group 2s which headline Saturday's meeting: the Furious Stakes, Chelmsford Stakes and Tramway Stakes. The track is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail in the 6m position.
Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card below!
Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, September 5th
Best Bet: Race 9 - (12) Icebath
Best Value: Race 7 - (8) Shared Ambition
I couldn’t understand how (10) Harto was favourite here but the more I look at the race, the more I think it lacks depth. This filly debuted with a narrow 2nd placing at Warwick Farm, where she was vetted pre-race. She then went to Gosford and tackled a BM64 and won easily. She’s had 44 weeks off the track since then and returns today with three trials under the belt. The form guide says she’s finished last, second-last and second-last in her three trials, but she’s deadest been strangled in all of them. It strikes me that they kick her off in Saturday grade when she is eligible for much weaker races than this. She draws well and should prove hard to beat. I think the big improver in the race will be (9) Night Flyer who struck a heavy track first up at Warwick Farm on a day where it was heavily favoured to leaders. She settled worse than midfield and off the fence, which was a recipe for disaster on that particular day. Fitter, back on a firmer track and hopefully a fairer one, she can improve at big odds. I was very keen to oppose (4) Athiri first up and luckily, I came out on top, but I’d expect her to be able to turn the tables on (3) Fanciful Dream second up and up to 1100m.
Value: (9) Night Flyer $18
The Highways are always tough and this is a prime example. (1) Tim’s Principal finds his ideal conditions today and looks an each way hope. He’s only won three races in his career so he does find it hard to get his head in front, but he needs a firm track and that’s what he gets today. He’s had five starts this prep, two have been on wet ground and resulted in him being unplaced, and the other was when he was first up and missed the start by 2L over 1000m, which you just can’t afford to do. Has a good record at the distance and should run well at $8. (3) Feel The Knight has been racing well and should appreciate the firmer footing. (5) Absolute Trust returns from a spell and has been competitive at this level before. He’s still only lightly-raced and rates well, while (13) Clearly Regal and (17) Temoin Chaud are from stables that should always be respected in these races.
(1) Tim's Principal E/W
$8.00
There’s a couple of ways you could approach this. It’s an open race but I think a very good bet would be backing (2) Petronius to place. He’s had four starts when first up from a spell and has run 2nd in all four of them. Nash Rawiller is a strong jockey booking, he draws barrier 1 and should be in this right up to his ears. (6) Archanna was very good in her return at Kensington, going down a nose. She had to come from last on that occasion and came widest in the straight. It was a good effort to get as close as she did. She should take improvement from that. She’ll have to come from a similar position in running here but the course proper should allow her to get her chance. She looks a good price at $5.50. (9) Raison D’etre was another who was very good first up, bolting in to score easily at Canterbury. She gets in with 52kg here and looks the one they’ll have to beat. Very happy to oppose (8) Giovanna Run. I can’t believe she’s $5.00. She won last start but she was absolutely blessed in the run, leading on a day which favoured frontrunners hugely. Goes from wet to dry here and faces a much stiffer test. I want to stick with Archanna here but I would recommend backing Petronius on the place line at $2.38 or those who want the safer option.
So, we get to (1) Nature Strip vs (2) Gytrash. Nature Strip is hard to beat of course, but how can anyone take $1.40? It’s a crazy price for a horse that’s failed to win first up in his past two preparations. There’s been a lot of talk about (3) Ball of Muscle potentially looking to hold the lead from barrier 1, but he’d want to be pretty quick to do that. At the prices I’m comfortably in the corner of Gytrash, who has an outstanding first up record and a nearly unblemished record at the distance. The little worry is the synthetic hoof filler on for the first time but he’ll camp right behind the hot speed and if he improves into this prep the way he did last prep, he could cause the upset. I think the horse out of this race to maybe catch the eye for the future could be (5) Dirty Work who finished last prep with three very good wins. He might be ready to go to a new level this prep.
(13) Kinane is obviously the hype horse here but I think he’s once again short enough at $4.40. He finished off well first up over 1400m but he’s probably still looking for further than 1500m. He draws barrier 13 so he’ll go back and give them all a start again, so he’s got a big job ahead to run them down. What that means is there is plenty of value elsewhere. In number order… (4) Sir Plush can improve sharply. He’s had two runs back, both on heavy ground which he hates. Back on firm ground today, blinkers on for the first time, and his third up record is good. He’s $41. (6) Masaff hit the line about as well as Kinane first up, after being held up early in the straight. Second up last prep he ran very well over 1800m at Flemington, and while 1500m is still short of his best, he looks a chance of being very competitive from his inside draw, which should see him positioned much closer to the speed. (9) Cinquedea has been poor in two runs back from a spell but he’s won two of his three starts when third up and he gets blinkers reapplied today. No surprise to see him improve sharply at $27. (10) Pancho was heavily backed first up but did nothing. It was surprising to see the market support given he’s only placed once from five starts when first up now. His second up record reads two wins from three starts, so respect the money for him first up, respect his SP and the return to firmer ground could also be another positive. He can turn his form around, though he’s a bit hard to trust. (11) Across Dubai was luckless on his Australian debut and then ran 3rd at his second start. He’s had 12 weeks between runs but has trialled in between. He’s likely to need further but isn’t at all hopeless. Masaff and Cinquedea are the two for me but you could have something small on all of those five mentioned outside the favourite, as they are all good odds.
Sticking with (1) Dame Giselle who proved she’d come back well as a three-year-old with a first up victory in the Silver Shadow Stakes. She led throughout on that occasion and if her record is anything to go by, she should improve second up. She’s won two of her three starts at this track and distance, she gets the winkers back on and she looks the one to beat. (3) Hungry Heart will be popular for the Waller/JMac combination. She’s only had three starts, last seen finishing 5th in the Golden Slipper. Her trials have been very quiet and she looks to have returned well. Draws nicely and is sure to be competitive. (10) Forbidden Love won first up at Canterbury after very good support. It was only a midweek race but she was only 3.5L off Away Game in the Percy Sykes last prep and she should have more to come. (11) Chianti was very good winning first up at Hawkesbury and even though this is a huge rise in class, she has some ability.
The Chelmsford Stakes looks wide open. I am struggling to get (1) Avilius anywhere near $4.60. I think the jury is out with him and 1600m first up from a wide draw on a good track doesn’t look a great set up for me to back him. (8) Shared Ambition goes on top and is my best value bet of the day at $9.00. He was obviously not set up to win first up over 1400m with the 3kg apprentice on board. He was caught wide without cover throughout and understandably dropped out to finish near the back. Much better set up today, up to the mile, James McDonald taking over, back on firm ground and an unblemished second up record. I think we’ll see sharp improvement. (14) Nettoyer resumes over her pet track and distance. She’s got four wins from nine starts over the Randwick mile, including one first up last prep. She can’t be discounted fresh. (13) Zebrowski ran very well in his first crack at WFA G1 company first up in the Winx Stakes. He’s better suited up to the mile and slightly back in grade, but he’s probably still looking for further. Stablemate (10) Angel of Truth ran a terrific race at his debut for the Hawkes stable. His best form has all been on wet ground so the query is whether he can reproduce his fresh effort on a firmer deck, but he looks to have come back a much better horse.
(8) Shared Ambition
$9.00
This race is a headache. I’m going to stick with (1) Dreamforce with the basis that he’s just a better horse at this stage of his career, even though he is an eight-year-old. He was given less than no hope first up in the Winx Stakes when caught three-wide the trip on speed in a race that had a stack of tempo. He should find this much more suitable with only a moderate tempo. If he can find the front and control things, he’s going to be very tough to beat. It’s just whether that first up run has gassed him. (9) Reloaded ra 2nd in the Hobartville Stakes last prep and then 3rd in a Rosehill Guineas. From all reports he’s really matured and come back far better so if that is the case, he finds a very winnable race. (10) Opacity is a horse with a good race in him but his two defeats have both been when first up. Then there’s two fascinating runners in the form of (8) Vanna Girl and (3) Dragon Leap, both lightly-raced with very good winning strike rates. Vanna Girl has done all her racing in Queensland but has an electrifying turn of foot and knows where the post is, while Dragon leap comes over from New Zealand as a dual Guineas winner. Interesting race but hard to bet in!
I was ready to declare Masked Crusader here but he’s been scratched, so I’ve replaced him as my best bet of the day with (12) Icebath, who now looks very hard to beat. She ran very well first up over this track and distance, beaten a head by (6) Zakat who she meets again today. She should be able to turn the tables on him, with a 2kg weight swing, a better draw and that first up run under her belt. With even luck she looks the one to beat. One over the odds is (3) The Fire Trap at $17. He won really well first up before failing last start, but he’s never placed from his four second up runs. He’s won two of his three starts when third up though, so he looks to just be a horse that is flat second up before bouncing back. (10) Mirra Vision is undefeated first up and should be ready with three trials under the belt.
