Just the two games in the NRL this Sunday to wrap up the Round 19 action. As usual, our Sunday expert ScoobysTips has you covered with a full preview and betting tips for both games, which get underway at 2.00pm with Canberra taking on New Zealand.
NRL Round 19 Sunday Betting Tips
Canberra Raiders v New Zealand Warriors
GIO Stadium, Canberra, 2.00pm
The Raiders were firing in every manner in their 37-8 win against the Dragons on the road. Despite conceding the opening try, the Raiders quickly took control of the match and built pressure on their opponents. They had 56% of possession and completed at 81%; on top of this, they had 7 linebreaks, 31 tackle breaks, just 18 missed tackles and 10 errors. It was another step towards the Raiders gaining a last-gasp Top 4 spot and they will be aiming to continue their momentum here. The Warriors hopes of a Top 8 finish were ended with their 22-14 loss to the Sharks.
Their opponents had plenty of favours early on but a late try prior to HT kept the Warriors hopes alive, heading into the break down 12-6. 2 late tries to the Sharks shut the door completely on the Warriors. It was yet another gallant effort though and keeping their chances alive with 47% possession was amicable. Only averaging 8.3m per carry, having just 3 linebreaks and 35 missed tackles points towards what is still desired by this team. With everything else they have overcome this year, one would excuse a poor finish to the season for the visitors. That being said, some players may want to prove themselves capable to their incoming coach.
The Stats
The recent form of the Warriors has received plenty of hype and it is warranted compared to their season averages; their season average in attack is 16.1 points in attack and 22.4 points in defence. Since Round 12, they have scored an average of 27.7 points in attack and conceded 18 points in defence. On the other hand, the Raiders average 21.2 points in attack in 2020 and 15.3 points conceded in defence. Home ground advantage needs to count for something in the NRL, but the Warriors have won the past two matches at this venue. The Raiders have won 6 out of the past 10 meetings between these two sides, including their 20-6 Round 2 victory on the Gold Coast. The overall record since 1998 sits at 20-19 in favour of the Raiders. The average margin of victory in the past 10 meetings is 14.1 points.
Verdict
The Raiders are installed as strong favourites for this contest, with the bookies believing that now the Warriors season is done and dusted, they will return to a team that lacks competitiveness. In seasons gone by, the Warriors were a team that would undoubtedly fall into this category; yet, they are a different team this year and if they are to be taken on merit, they could easily turn up and cause an upset. This is a really dangerous game to invest on. The Raiders will want to move through it with ease and it is hard to find any value. Taking on board all available options and pieces of information, it is with little confidence that a Raiders victory by more than 2 converted tries is the suggested bet. Be wary though…may be worthwhile staying quiet on this game.
Newcastle Knights v St George-Illawarra Dragons
McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle, 4.05pm
The momentum the Knights were building ahead of the Finals took a giant leap backwards with their 42-12 loss to the Roosters. The chances of the Knights moving forward will be compared against this loss and there is little to be excited about. Sure, they wisely chose to rest Ponga and are missing several other players, but they were comprehensively outclassed and can consider themselves lucky that the Roosters did score more points. They averaged just 8.2m per carry, only 421pcm, 1 linebreak, 36 missed tackles and 11 errors. If they want to be a contender in the NRL Finals, they need a drastic change in the next few weeks.
As for the Dragons, they were never likely to win in their 37-8 loss to the Raiders. With the only bright light being a try scoring double to a debutant, the Dragons players were left looking for a hole to crawl into. With just 44% possession, they completed at 74%, had only 408pcm, created on 3 linebreaks and had 13 errors. It was evident more than ever that incoming coach, Anthony Griffin, is going to have a difficult time transforming more than just the form of this club. Many individuals in this side are not justifying their current pay packets. With pride on the line, the Dragons are certainly going to be tested against a team that is battling to restore confidence in their performance.
The Stats
The Knights are guaranteed a spot in the Finals but their recent form isn’t something to be excited about; since their Round 14 victory over the Sea Eagles, the Knights have scored an average of 18 points in attack and conceded 22.4 points in defence. Interestingly, their conceded points also includes keeping the Cowboys to nil points. The Dragons have not been much better in this timeframe; they have averaged 16.4 points in attack and 22.4 points in defence. In comparison to the 2020 season, the Knights average 20 points in attack and 17 points in defence, while the Dragons average 18 points in attack and 22 points in defence. Interestingly, these two sides are equal in just about every other area. Of the past 10 matches between these two sides, the Dragons have won 8 of them dating back to Round 5, 2015; 5 of those matches were played with the Knights as the home team and they were successful just once. This translates to an incredible 81% winning record for the Dragons at this ground.
Verdict
There are several factors clouding the decision in this match. Firstly, the record of the Dragons at this ground and in the past 10 meetings; it is too much to overlook and could count for something in this contest. Secondly, the form of the Knights does not resemble a team that is destined for the NRL Finals; although, the form of the Dragons is arguably far worse. All things considered, this is a dangerous game to invest upon. The Knights could easily come out and put in a dominating performance to make a statement ahead of the Finals or the Dragons could be up for one last ‘upset’ of the year, causing pain for an opponent destined for the Finals. Therefore, the suggestion is to invest around a tight contest, with the game decided by 8-points or less.
Either Team by 8.5 or Less
$2.40
