Week 16 in the NFL kicks off with an AFC West blockbuster, as the Chargers host the Broncos in a game with huge playoff seeding implications. The Broncos overtook the Chargers after the week 15 results, and as things stand will play the Steelers in week 1, whilst the Chargers would get the Bills. The winner of this game will be in prime position to finish 6th in the AFC, and potentially have the much easier Wild Card matchup. We bring you our full preview and tips below!
NFL Week 16 Preview & Betting Tips
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
SoFi Stadium, Friday 20th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Chargers were utterly dominated at home in week 15, going down 40-17 to the Buccaneers. The Chargers gave up 505 total yards, whilst only managing 207 total yards themselves. The Chargers defence appears to be regressing, and with the offensive line struggling of late, Herbert could be in for a torrid game this week after being sacked 4 times last week. The run game has also come to a halt, with J.K. Dobbins out and Gus Edwards taking over, the Chargers aren’t able to play the way they want. Against a stout Bronco defence this week, the Chargers may struggle to score.
Speaking of the Broncos, they had no right winning last week, but they did end up winning 31-13 over the Colts. The Broncos were down 13-7 when Colts running back Jonathan Taylor waltzed into the endzone, however inexplicably dropped the ball inches before scoring, resulting in the play being reviewed and the call overturned. The Colts didn’t score again and ended the game turning the ball over 5 times. The Broncos offense was horrible, gaining only 193 total yards, with rookie QB Bo Nix throwing 3 interceptions in what was his worst game since early this season.
Match Preview
The Chargers closed 3-point road favourites back in week 6 the last time these teams met and managed to win in rather dominant fashion 23-16 in Denver. The Chargers led 23-0 heading into the final quarter, before the Broncos managed some garbage time points to make the score more respectable, but it was all Chargers. J.K. Dobbins was a huge reason for the win, and the Chargers winning the turnover battle 2-0 also played a huge role. The total closed 37 and just got over with a minute remaining.
This week, the Chargers opened 3-point home favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening at the same price. The number is still 3, and I see decent value in the Broncos at the key number of 3. Yes, the Broncos weren’t great last week, but they were still better than the Chargers, and I’m really worried about their offense and how banged up it is. I make the Chargers about a 1-point favourite, so see decent value in the road team here.
The total was 42 on the lookahead, before re-opening 42.5. It has bounced back down to 42, and I agree with the move heading south given how poor both offenses were this past week. I make a fair total 42.5 and have no thoughts of betting on this total right now.
A quick look at the props, and not a lot have opened at the time of writing. The only worthwhile bet in the props at this time is Courtland Sutton to go over his receiving yard total. In the first meeting with the Chargers, Sutton had 4 catches for 53 yards on 6 targets. Since that game, Sutton has averaged 9.4 targets per game, and if he gets 9 or 10 targets here, he should easily go over his receiving yard total.
Prop Bet:
Courtland Sutton (over) 67.5 receiving yards - $1.90 at Bet365 (1u)
Denver Broncos +3
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
