Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Saturday, July 18th.
Another really solid winter card at Flemington. The track is a soft 6 but an upgrade is on the cards, with the rail out 4 metres.
Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday July 18th
Best Bet: Race 5 (4) Alfarris
Best Value: 8 (4) Sully
It’ll be interesting to see where the jockeys go down the straight. Being race 1 I’d expect them fairly close to the fence over the 1000m. I’ve backed (2) Snitzkraft in early markets because I think he’s very well suited back to the 5 furlongs. His recent runs at 1200m have left a bit to be desired, but two starts ago he ran a narrow 2nd to the flying specialist Prezado, who would be a clear favourite here. He’s also much better on firm ground, and I think we’ll be racing on a soft 5 come Saturday. (3) Gee Gee Secondover is the danger over from Tasmania. One look at his record tells you he’ll run well, with 8 wins and 9 seconds from 23 starts, including a flawless first up record. He was won over 1000m in weaker company, but I fancy he’s better over 6 or 7 furlongs. (1) Ashlor is always a hope and is proven with weight but meets Snitzkraft 4kg worse from their Caulfield clash, crossing the line basically together. Firmly against (4) Bumper Blast who is talented but not an 1000m horse, (5) Irish Mint next best but think Snitzkraft is a fantastic bet at $7.50.
Up to 1200m again down the straight. Three of these met last start at Caulfield over 1000m, with (2) Lucifer’s Reward winning from (4) Proper Rogue in 2nd and (6) Wilmot Pass narrowly in 4th. The winner was able to track up 3 wide with cover and peel out with plenty of momentum. Proper Rogue was back on the inside and after getting through ran the quickest last 200m of the race by 0.05 seconds to Wilmot Pass, who had a hard time keeping up before being held up and running the fastest last 600m of the race. I think the step up to 1200m with a much slower tempo will suit Wilmot Pass the most out of that race. He put in a similar run first up over 1000m last start before winning easily over 1200m second up. (1) Sansom is a clear danger and is going really well. He beat Lucifer’s Reward home by over 4L when first up at The Valley. He ran well behind group class Alfa Oro last start and I’d expect him to be right on pace here, however he does have to concede 4.5kg to the field, even with the claim. Not much between Wilmot Pass and Proper Rogue so at the odds and with a 2.5kg weight swing, I have to be with the former.
First of the circle races here. There are northerly winds expected which can often mean horses without cover are disadvantaged from about the 1000m to the 400m around the home turn, so I don’t think we’ll see any leader bias unless they get great rides. Up to 1800m for the 2yo’s and the favourite (1) Alcyone looks very hard to beat. He was a mile back over 1400m and finished nicely before stepping up to the mile and just going down to Cherry Tortoni after racing wide without cover. He’s already been backed into $18 for the Derby and will shorten again after presumably winning this. (3) Jonny Get Angry was good behind the favourite last start at $101 and will also love the 1800m, but I don’t think he can turn the tables just yet. The danger that brings different form is (4) Mr Wolf over from South Australia. You have to respect the airborne (26% last 50) McEvoy camp in Melbourne, and Olly jumping on is a huge booking. Mr Wolf doesn’t look to have a turn of foot but has grinded away in two 1400m runs, winning a maiden and running a narrow 3rd as the $1.70 favourite in a class 1. He will eat up 1800m and if Olly can come across to ideally sit one out one back, he can improve lengths. I think the way to play the race is back Alcyone to win because he should be doing so and have something 1x3 on Mr Wolf who looks a great place bet and the danger to the favourite. Wouldn’t be shocked to see double figures about Mr Wolf late too so watch the market.
Value: (4) Mr Wolf E/W $8.00
Just another one of those high benchmark mares’ races, and I have little interest. That said, I do have (8) Beauty Bolt on top. This mare brings a bit of different form, running in the Rivette final last start and pulling up lame. If this was at 1600m I’d be much keener, but with just 53kg her best is certainly good enough. (1) Laburnum is a chance and should be primed 3rd up but still has to concede 7.5kg to some of these and might have to do it facing the wind. (4) Zaberlarina ran home in the fastest last 400m of the same race, given no hope against the bias. I’ve thrown out (3) El Questro as a roughie twice this preparation and she’s still racing well, recovering slowly last start. Nugent replaces Hall which probably helps. At her best (2) Mystery Love would probably win this, but her last three have been awful. A drier track definitely suits but even still, I’d want to see her produce something first.
I’m going again with (4) Alfarris. I was keen on him two back, but he pulled up lame after riding a hot pace, then again last start at around $10 on the exchange, and he was excellent chasing the leader in isolation, taking over in the straight before just getting nailed by Lord Belvedere, who isn’t running here. A bigger field should be more to his liking here and Nolen can position him midfield with cover and take over. The big watch is (5) South Pacific, who has beaten Constantinople and has form around some other group class stayers. If this horse is fit and ready to win it probably does. The early backing could be a sign of intent but watch the market late which will tell the tale. I’m banking on it just being a tick over run before a let up into a cups campaign. (9) Crimson Ace is flying, jumps up to 2800m for the first time but I doubt that’ll slow her down. (7) Sin To Win keeps racing well but getting too far back and loses Olly which is more than enough to turn me off. Sticking fat with Alfarris because if South Pacific isn’t there to win, Alfarris should be close to even money.
Great contest for the 3yo’s over 1600m with some very progressive horses lining up. I’ll start with (1) Right You Are who is flying. He arguably should’ve beaten Persan last start, but they scratched from the 2000m race and have dropped him back to 1600m, which I’m not sure will suit. Has to carry 62kg but Olly will give the horse a great run. (2) Mr Cancun will love getting out to 1600m. He showed last start he can settle closer which could prove valuable. I loved the win of (6) Smokin’ Romans last start. It was only a BM58 on synthetic, but he had to carry 62.5kg at just his 2nd career start, giving weight to older horses and was held up around the bend and in the straight. Finally able to get off heels, the acceleration he showed with the weight was that of a good horse. Draws wide here so will need some luck but he can definitely progress. (9) Stretto eased out 3 wide early and was left a sitting duck, finishing 3rd behind Walking Flying and Grinzinger Allee. That form is good with the latter bolting in at Cranbourne Wednesday. Also in that race was (15) Over The Sky who settled last in the big field with Dee electing to stick nearer the inside. The big striding Tavistock colt was held up twice in the straight but still came home in the fastest last 800/600m of the race. Only the winner bettered his last 400/200m. This horse will be very good at 2000m, but with a bit of early muster from barrier 2 he can power over these. Interesting to note recently both Over The Sky and Stretto both started very short and beat a horse called Miss Tenthousand on synthetic to break their maidens. I think Over The Sky has huge upside, so I’ll side with him but wary of Smokin’ Romans who could be very good.
One at odds that can run well here is (13) Never Again. If you forgive last start, which I am, then he’s overs. The horse had no luck last start at this T/D, settling near last on the fence and never getting clear air in the Winter final, basically going to the line untested while the winner (1) Sirrconi flew past. Sirrconi is flying but meets Never Again a whopping 9kg worse off at the weights. Never Again’s form prior to last start was good behind Holbein and Heptagon, which ties in very easily with Sirrconi, so I can’t work out why one is $4 and the other $11. (3) Orderofthegarter scares me and could blow this field away. At his only Australian start he gave 4kg and ran 2nd to the handy Furrion, with (7) Danon Roman in 3rd. Orderofthegarter’s overseas form is lengths better than these, with a 0.5L 2nd to Benbatl. 1600m is probably a touch short, but I won’t be losing on him. Danon Roman was very good coming from back in the field in an on pace race to get up but does look short enough at $4 all the same. Happy to back Never Again and watch the market with Orderofthegarter and stake accordingly in the last few minutes of betting.
Also: (3) Orderofthegarter $6.00
Tough race. I was keen on (9) Bartholomeu Dias at Sandown and he won well after sitting outside the leader. The form from that race has been good too, with Master Shuhood and Bedford both winning since. Quite a few of these come through a 2000m race at Caulfield last start, won by (7) Mirimar who got a great run. (10) Creedence caught the eye there, running on well late from last. I wanted to make a case for (5) Double You Tee who drew barrier 1 in that race which wasn’t the best ground. Egan replaces Tahlia here which is a positive and he should get a nice run midfield from barrier 3. His form prior was good enough, but I would’ve liked to see more last start regardless. Going to take a stab at value in the form of (4) Sully. Seems crazy since it hasn’t won for 18 starts but there is a case to be made. Forget the first two runs this preparation over unsuitable distances. Last start at Rosehill the horse had support and went forward to lead but pulled up lame, beaten 3.4L in a swoopers race that I’d say is superior to this contest. Sully is 4th up now and approaching peak fitness. At this stage last preparation it ran 3rd to The Chosen One and Prince Of Arran, and a drier track than last start should suit also. In an incredibly open race, he’s worth each way ticket. I wouldn’t be shocked to see $30+ on the exchange too.
Back down the straight to finish the card. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them come towards the middle and wider by this time of the day. The notorious (17) Pinyin is favourite who has drawn very wide. If you haven’t seen her last run at Sandown over 1000m, check it out. She was completely outpaced early and 6L off the 2nd last horse around the turn, finally entering the screen with 100m to go and flying home to run 3rd. Her last 400m was 0.75 seconds faster than that of the winner Bless Her, who won impressively at Caulfield last week. Pinyin also goes from apprentice’s Eaton/Price to Olly. Pinyin’s first up run over 1100m here behind Alfa Oro was very good and is perfectly suited here 3rd up at 1200m, with both her wins coming at the distance and one coming when 3rd up. Unbeaten in Australia (8) Our Wind Spirit has a great SP profile and the Rodd/Smith combo is flying. He’s a huge danger and wouldn’t shock at all. (5) I’m Telling Ya is similar to Pinyin in that it often produces a flashing light run. He does get a 2kg swing on Pinyin from their Flemington clash, but that was only because of the claim, and Pinyin was only first up.
