Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Kensington on Wednesday, April 15th.
We've got an eight-race card on the Kenso track this Wednesday, with the track currently rated a Soft 5 and the rail in the True position.
Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips below!
Kensington Racing Tips: Wednesday, April 15th
Best Bet: Race 6 - (1) Super Ex
Best Value: Race 2 - (13) Vital Verse
Race 1 (Market)
It's been an enormous go on (10) Raison D'Etre to open the card, with the Godolphin filly $3.20 into $1.65. She was my best bet on debut, where she was beaten a length by Forbidden Love. That horse then went on to finish midfield in G2 company last weekend. Raison D'Etre pulled up with a slow recovery after her debut, so there may be room for her to improve sharply and the market move suggests as much. Her two trials leading into her debut were both sharp so she is quite clearly the one to beat here. I can't quite work out the price of (2) Fine Impact at $126. She made significant improvement from her first trial to her second trial and she actually worked home relatively well in her most recent one. Harmonium was the winner of that trial and that horse has form behind Hungry Heart and Doubtland. On her breeding she will probably get a mile so 1100m on debut might be a bit sharp, and she bumps into a smart one, but $21 for the place is a huge price.
Value: (2) Fine Impact $151/$34
Race 2 (Market)
This race has got me a bit confused. (8) Ocean Emperor is favourite at $3.00 having performed well at the trials. He recorded a pretty comfortable win in his most recent heat at Rosehill. He draws barrier 1, so should rail through to lead and take plenty of beating, but Bjorn Baker doesn't have a good record here though, with just three winners from 36 runners this season. (15) Sagacious ran 2nd to him in that trial and then came out and was beaten 22L on debut at Rosehill, so there is a bit of a query on that trial form. Waller has four runners in the race. (13) Vital Verse looked particularly good at his latest trial, where he wasn't placed under any pressure in the straight and cruised to the line. It was a nice improvement from his first trial for the prep a couple of weeks earlier. James McDonald takes the ride on him which is a pretty good hint that he's the pick of the Waller runners. He'll be my play at $8.00. Waller also has a poor record on the Kenso, with nine winners from 125 runners, but he also has multiple runners in each race most of the time, just like he does here, so those results may be skewed.
(13) Vital Verse E/W
$8.00
Race 3 (Market)
(2) New Arrangement gets his chance today. He's had two starts in Australia so far, both have been pass marks without catching the eye. He gets a firmer track today which I think will suit him much better and James McDonald goes back on third up. This race looks a bit easier than what he contested last start. The winner Royal Celebration has won three in a row, while 4th placegetter Kaapfever has since come out and run well again, going down by a nostril on Monday. Up in distance, soft draw, this looks suitable. (8) Kelvinside is the rank outsider of the field at $34 but I can make a case for him. He ran 5th over the 1550m here last start, behind the likes of Zebrowski and All Time Legend. Zebrowski has since progressed to run 2nd to Quick Thinker in the Tulloch Stakes and the Derby, while All Time Legend came out and won on Monday. That's a really good form reference and he tends to go better third up than second up. He certainly doesn't win out of turn but with the light weight and inside barrier, he can run a cheeky race.
Value: (8) Kelvinside $34
(2) New Arrangement
$6.00
Race 4 (Market)
I'm expecting sharp improvement from (5) Laila De Vega today. She always tends to need her first two runs back from a spell. She's only ever finished in the money once from nine starts when first or second up, but she's had two runs when third up from a spell and has finished 2nd on both occasions. She has three top-two finishes from as many starts on soft ground and from barrier 1 she should sit box seat. She's an each way bet at $12. (1) My Demetra is running well but just struggling to win one. She was only beaten 0.4L over 1200m here last start. She carries top weight today but third up from a spell, she gets every chance. (4) Got Your Six looks the leader and comes off a good win at Muswellbrook.
Race 5 (Market)
There's a few real suspects in this race. (9) Foxborough might find a good race today. She won first up in Canberra despite sitting three-wide the trip. She then ran midfield in the Canberra Guineas, before finishing 3rd last start, beaten 2L. She's going to back toward the rear from barrier 7 but she might just be a bit too good nonetheless. JMac goes on (4) Dio D'Oro who is one of the suspects, but when JMac goes on for Gary Portelli, they generally go close. They have one winner and three 2nds from six runners together this season. (6) Agassi didn't get much room for a portion of the straight last start but was only fair when he got clear. He does have a good record at the track and distance, but he doesn't want the ground to be soft. (2) Commander should improve from his poor first up run but might just need one more run before winning next start. (3) Destiny's Own was held up the entire straight in the Muswellbrook Cup last start, while (5) Angel Of Heaven got life from me last prep so she can go around without my money.
Race 6 (Market)
(1) Super Ex is the best bet on the card by a long way. He was a bit ordinary first up but he improved sharply over this track and distane last start when run down very late by Indy Car. Indy Car has since come out and won easily in Listed company since then which gives his form a big boost. His only prior run when third up from a spell was a win, he should lead from barrier 1 and be too good for this lot. I really don't think there's much to this field. (3) Mossman Gorge would be the danger.
Race 7 (Market)
(6) Jetski is a good bet here. He resuned a winner first up at Kembla Grange, coming from last to get the job done as the odds-on favourite. He's had six weeks since that run but has been back at the trials to keep him ticking over. He wa only a length off the winner in two starts in town at the end of last prep, so with natural improvement he should be able to win in metro class today. JMac goes on which is always a good sign with the Godolphin runners. (9) Song And A Prayer isn't the worst at odds. She draws barrier 1 with Nash Rawiller on and should get a good run. She ran well first up last prep and went on to win in similar grade to this, so if she's forward enough first up she can feature. (13) Art Of More has had no luck at all in his first two runs back from a spell at Newcastle and Wyong. He gets blinkers on for the first time today. Can back Jetski at $3.00 and have something small on Song And A Prayer and Art Of More at $17 and $23 respectively.
Value: (9) Song And A Prayer $17 & (13) Art Of More $23
Race 8 (Market)
Really keen on (4) Dirty Work here. He's raced at Listed level in his past two starts, and was only 2.8L off California Zimbol, Dawn Passage and Hilo last start. Way down in grade today and back to the track and distance his only win came at. It's the Hawkes' stable only runner for the day and they go well here at Randwick, with a 20% winning strike rate. (2) Cardiff resumes as a gelding today and looks a danger off two good trials. He's yet to run a place first up from three attempts but the gelding operation may make the difference. That's about the only one I can make a case for to beat Dirty Work.
