Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, April 8th.
It's a heavy deck at Warwick Farm today and with more rain predicted throughout the day, hopefully we make it through the meeting.
Find our race-by-race preview and betting tips for the meeting below!
Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, April 8th
Best Bet: Race 2 - (2) Flinders
Best Value: Race 4 - (4) Red Notice
(7) Elizabeel makes her debut here after five trials to get her ready. The first of those was back in September, the next two in December/January, and the last two at the end of March. Those two were both eye-catching and impressive. She took a sit off them in the first of those but showed speed to lead in the most recent one, where she cruised to the line under a hold. That was on a soft 6 and she moved like she handled the wet so hopefully she is adept on the rain-affected ground here. (4) Vucetich resumes from a spell. He finished down the field in the Golden Gift back in November and was put straight out. He's had two trials leading into this, and although he was placed under pressure in the most recent one (even got a slap with the whip), he did respond and stretched out nicely to the line. He will handle the ground, he gets JMac on first up and James Cummings has a great record at Warwick Farm, so I think he's the danger to the favourite. (10) Super One SUsie might be the one at value to include.
(2) Flinders could be an absolute moral here and somehow he isn't favourite. He was a good thing beat first up behind Twice As Special and Battleground. He had trialled very well leading into that first up run, where he was horribly held up in the straight and went to the line looking at nothing but backsides. With any luck there's no question he would have won and Battleground has since come out and won to frank the form from that race. JMac stays with him here, the only question is if he will handle a waterlogged track, but I'm taking the punt he will. His stablemate (3) Lanu Moana has been backed into favourite. She's had three starts and has placed in all of them, but they've been at Newcastle and Hawkesbury. She gets blinkers on for the first time today but drops from 1800m to 1600m. I think Flinders should be a clear favourite ahead of her.
No surprise to see a rough result here. (9) Lancer only brings provincial form to this but he's got race fitness on his side which could prove important against two favourites that are first up from a spell. The stable have a 24% strike rate at Warwick Farm this season and with Adam Hyeronimus going on today, they may well look to be more positive. At $15 I can entertain having something on. (12) Special Snap looks the better of the two favourites in my opinion. He's won three trials leading into his return today, although he obviously had a setback as the first was back in December, with the two most recent being in March. He sat wide without cover first up last prep and split Mirra Vision and Grand Piano. A repeat of that would see him win this.
I think I've waited three weeks now for (4) Red Notice to take his place. Once again he comes up big odds here at 30/1. He won well first up at Newcastle before failing second up over the same track and distance. If you look at his record though, that's a consistent pattern throughout his career. He's got a good first up record but he's never run a place from five starts when second up. He can bounce back third up however, with two wins from four starts. Whether he's got the class to in a midweek city race is the obvious query, as well as the heavy ground, but it wouldn't shock me to see him improve sharply today at big odds. (2) Witherspoon looks hardest to beat of those in the market. She ran 2nd to Grand Piano last start on the Kenso and she should appreciate the wet ground. It looks a suitable race for her today.
Unfortunately (6) Who's Knocking has been scratched again as I was keen on her at big odds. (7) Dunbrody Power is a good chance at $9.00 too. She was OK first up without a lot of luck at Canterbury, before being outclassed in G3 company last start. She gets a big drop back in grade third up today and triner John Thompson has a terrific record at Warwick Farm, wtih a 30% strike rate this season. Nash Rawiller goes on from barrier 1, she's so far handled all conditions and at each way odds she can give this a shake. (1) Sakura resumes from a spell and although she carries 62kg first up, she gets JMac on straight away which generally indicates they are ready to win. She's undefeated from two starts at the track and she has three wins at the distance. Her only previous attempt on heavy ground was a failure but she sat four-wide the trip so forgive her for that. She looks the one to beat, while (9) My Demetra has claims.
(7) Dunbrody Power E/W
$9.00
I'll be taking a position on three runners here. (1) Surrey Thunder had decent support first up over 1400m at Rosehill where he ran 4th behind Royal Celebration. His run was good after being momentarily held up early in the straight. He'll no doubt appreciate the step up to 1600m and James McDonald jumps on today. That was his first run in Australia so he should take plenty of improvement from it and prove hard to beat at $5.00 today. (5) Rainbow Thief is a horse I struggle to catch but he certainly finds a nice race today. He ran 4th in the Doncaster Prelude last start so he should enjoy this drop back in grade and he will also enjoy the heavy ground given all three career wins have been on wet tracks. Draws well and looks hard to beat. I think the value once again is (13) Kaapfever at $21. He was a winner at this track and distance last time out. He's never missed a placing from six starts here at Warwick Farm, which includes three wins, and he's placed in eight of his 11 starts at the distance. He handles the wet no problem and the only real negative today is the jockey change from Rachel King to Glyn Schofield. At 20/1 he has to be included again. Backing Surrey Thunder and Kaapfever, saving on Rainbow Thief.
Value: (13) Kaapfever $21
Competitive race with plenty of chances. (2) Improvement gets the notable jockey booking of James McDonald, who rarely rides for Gary Portelli. She ran well behind Roheryn first up last preparation and she's got a good record on wet ground so she has claims today. (4) Black Magnum rarely runs a bad race and he'll get conditions to suit with the heavy ground. He'll be around the mark. (6) Stephan might be the best roughie in the race at $21. He hasn't done much in two starts back from a spell but he didn't necessarily get everything go his way last start and we saw him improve sharply last prep. He's got a decent record in heavy ground, he's won six from eight at the distance, has won his only start at this track and distance, and has a terrific third up record. Include him at big odds. (10) Rancho Notorious may appreciate further and might not like the wet ground but he ran 2nd here over this track and distance first up last prep. (12) Misteed goes much better on wet ground than firm ground so she gets conditions to suit first up today. (13) Segalas won first up before being run down late last start. Third up today, well drawn, the stable go well here at Warwick Farm and she handles all conditions.
This is about the first time in her career that (1) On The White Turf has drawn a good barrier! Look at these barrier draws throughout her 13-start career: 9/9, 10/12, 7/9, 8/9, 5/6, 7/7, 8/9, 12/12, 10/16, 12/16, 9/11, 10/13, 13/13. Today she draws barrier 1. She most recently came from last to run 3rd over this track and distance, so one would hope with the good draw they look to take up a position closer to the speed. She handles all ground and should be hard to beat here. (10) Maybach could run a big race at big odds. He's first up and has the blinkers put straight on by Waterhouse/Bott, who enjoy a 24% strike rate here at Warwick Farm. He probably needs further than this but he can go in numbers. (11) Gone Bye is the other one I can make a case for at double figure odds. He just never got into the race first up at Canberra but he's capable of improving sharply from that. The ground is a query but the step up to the mile will help.
(1) On The White Turf
$5.00
