Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for Day 1 of The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday, April 4th.
There's four Group 1s on the 10-race card, featuring the ATC Sires' Produce, Australian Derby, TJ Smith Stakes and Doncaster Mile.
The track is currently rated in the Soft range and there's plenty of rain forecast leading into Saturday so we will definitely be racing on a wet track. The rail is in the true position.
Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips for a huge day below!
Royal Randwick Racing Tips: The Championships Day 1, 2020
Best Bet: Race 10 - (2) Rubisaki
Best Value Bet: Race 5 - (3) Gallic Chieftain
Race 1 - G3 Kindergarten Stakes 1100m (Market)
Interesting two-year-old race to start, with a mix of unexposed horses and horses coming back from top-tier races. (1) Rulership is the class runner of the race, dropping back to Group 3 company after finishing midfield in the Blue Diamond Stakes in Melbourne. He's only had the one start in Sydney, which was a dominant win over 1000m here at Randwick, so getting back to this track can be seen as a positive. His trial since the Blue Diamond was good, he did what he needed to do and wasn't put under any pressure. Draws well in barrier 3 and he should appreciate this drop back in grade. He's the one to beat, but there are others in the race a bit less exposed and probably on an upward curve. (4) Damaged was very impressive saluting in at the midweeks at Warwick Farm, sitting outside the leader before cruising away to win by 2.5L. JMac takes over today and he looks to have more to come. (5) Doubtland was also an impressive winner at the midweeks and he'll handle the conditions no problem. His debut win was on a soft 7 track and his breeding further suggests he'll relish wet ground. (8) Sancy had no luck first up in the Magic Night Stakes and she did have support on that occasion. She might be worth giving another chance at double figure odds. I think Rulership goes on top almost by default, but Doubtland might be the value at around $6.00.
Value: (5) Doubtland $6.00
Race 2 - G3 Carbine Club Stakes 1600m (Market)
This is a fascinating race for a few reasons. The even-money favourite (3) Reloaded drops back from Group 1 company behind the likes of Castelvecchio and Shadow Hero back to Group 3 company today. He's been close up in each of his past three starts and should find this race significantly easier than what he's been competing in, however there are a couple of major red flags. He drops back from 2000m to 1600m, gets synthetic hoof filler on for the first time, and most notably of all, James McDonald jumps off him to ride the stablemate (4) Kubrick. McDonald has ridden Reloaded in his past three starts but goes on Kubrick for the first time this prep. Why would he be jumping off the even-money favourite who he has ridden all prep to ride a stablemate that hasn't been sighted in two runs this prep? Kubrick did perform similarly last prep before coming out and winning the Bondi Stakes over this track and distance, and McDonald did ride him in his recent trial leading into his third up run here. It's not had to put the pieces together and suggest Waller will have Kubrick set for this. Nash Rawiller jumps off (5) Grand Piano, who he has ridden to two wins from as many starts this prep, and he picks up the ride on the favourite Reloaded. Rachel King picks up the ride on Grand Piano, who certainly isn't without a chance. Both wins have been at the midweeks on the Kensington track so this is a sharp step up in grade, but he's going to really appreciate the wet track here. Trainer John Thompson has a great record at Randwick too. (2) Promotions won in Listed company in Canberra last time out and the runner-up behind him has since come out and won. I can't ignore the flashing red light with Reloaded and Kubrick, so I'll take the $5.50 for Kubrick.
Race 3 - Country Championship Final 1400m (Market)
I don't profess to have much idea about the country formlines so this race is a little bit foreign to me. (2) Two Big Fari won his way into the field with victory in the Muswellbrook qualifier last start. He's got five wins and two 2nds from seven starts to date. He did a good job in doing so, sitting three-wide the trip on speed and dropping back from 1400m to 1280m on an 11-day break. Back up to 1400m will suit here and trainer Todd Blowes won this race last year with Noble Boy, and this horse is at a similar stage to what that horse was when he won. Barrier 20 isn't great but he might be good enough to overcome that and $8.00 looks value to me. The other horse at a bit of value is (3) Healing Hands at $16. He won the Mudgee qualifier two starts ago before running 3rd in a midweek race at Kensington last start. That might seem only average but it was actually a strong race. The winner Grand Piano lines up in the Carbine Club Stakes prior to this race and the runner-up Pinvincible won her first three starts prior to running 2nd in that. Healing Hands was basically just given a barrier trial, dropped out the back and allowed to work home. He's another horse with a good winning strike-rate, with five wins and two placings from eight starts. Expect a more positive ride here and at $16 I'll be having something on. (1) Bobbing comes up favourite at $4.40 after running 2nd to Two Big Fari in the qualifier. He gets a 1.5kg weight swing on Two Big Fari here, but Two Big Fari did sit wide without cover, so I think the price discrepency is too big. 1400m is his go though and he won the Provincial Championship Final last year so he deserves respect.
Value: (3) Healing Hands $16
Race 4 - G3 Adrian Knox Stakes 2000m (Market)
I'm a little bit sketchy on how (2) Paradee is going to line up in Sydney for the first time but she should be undefeated this preparation and overcame a tough trip to win in G3 compny last time out. She draws wide in barrier 12 but she's a versatile filly. Hugh Bowman picks up the ride today with Damien Oliver unable to travel to Sydney. She's only had one start on wet ground but she should have won that clearly. (3) Colette has come into her own in her past two starts, posting a 7L win over 1800m at Newcastle two starts ago before dropping back to the mile and winning well again. Up to 2000m now, she will definitely handle the ground and she gets a sweet draw in barrier 3. She's the one to beat. (1) Fascino should appreciate the drop in class from the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and she will also bring a better platform into this. She was jumping from 1400m to 2000m last start so with the run over 2000m under her belt, she should go well.
Race 5 - G2 Chairmans Quality Handicap 2600m (Market)
I am very keen on (3) Gallic Chieftain each way here. There was $11 earlier and he's into $9.50 now. He brings an almost identical set up to this race as to what he has in his previous two preparations. He won this exact race last year when third up from a spell with the blinkers on, which was also on a wet track. Then last preparation, he tackled The Metropolitan third up from a spell with the blinkers on and was beaten a nose, also on soft ground. So no surprise, he comes into this race third up from a spell with the blinkers back on. Overall, from 22 starts when either first or second up, he's placed seven times. When he's third up, he's had four wins and two placings from eight starts, so he really does peak at this stage of his prep. Barrier 1 should see him get an easy run and I suppose the only query is just what the inside of the track is going to be like with the rain. I really don't think there's much depth to this race so he looks a terrific each way bet. (12) Gayitri is also a bet at $9.00. She ran a terrific race last start in the G3 Epona Stakes, coming from well back in the field to be beaten a nose. She's third up, lightly weighted and is coming into form at the right time. Again, this isn't the strongest race so she looks a good hope. (11) Youngstar should find this easier than when she tackled Addeybb and Verry Elleegant last start. Gallic Chieftain and Gayitri for me.
Also backing: Gayitri $9.00
(3) Gallic Chieftain E/W
$9.50
Race 6 - G1 ATC Sires' Produce 1400m (Market)
The more I look at this race, the more I think (1) Mamaragan can't be beaten. The only query is if the track gets very wet and if the inside of the track will deteriorate. He took out the Skyline Stakes on debut and followed that with a 3rd placing in the Golden Slipper last start. To do that at just his second start was an enormous effort. He should land right on the speed and prove very hard to beat. Microphone won this race last year after running 2nd in the Slipper. (8) Ole Kirk is the value in the race at $9.50. He won on debut at Flemington in the Talindert Stakes and was then luckless in the Sires' Produce over 1400m. He was badly held up at a crucial part of the straight but once he got clear running at the 150m mark he really hit the line. His trial since coming to Sydney was exceptional, running straight past Rulership under no pressure at all. Should handle the wet on what we've seen and he'll get a good run from barrier 3. Looks a great chance at good odds. (3) Prague can improve up to 1400m after a midfield finish in the Slipper. Very keen on Mamaragan and Ole Kirk.
Value: (8) Ole Kirk $9.50
Race 7 - G1 Australian Derby 2400m (Market)
Three main horses I'm very keen on here. (1) Castelvecchio bounced right back to his best to win the Rosehill Guineas last time out, thanks largely in part to one of the best rides you'll see from Craig Williams. On a day where you needed to be on speed, Williams lobbed straight on the rail behind the leaders and the race was all over from there. Castelvecchio had to pull out plenty in a two-horse battle down the straight but his class prevailed and he was strong to the line. I wouldn't think the 2400m would find him out but it's a different scenario getting back to Randwick and drawing barrier 9. He's the horse to beat, no doubt. The Tulloch Stakes is a very good form line for this race. The last three winners of this race have all won the Tulloch Stakes leading into the Derby, and this year's Tulloch Stakes was taken out by (6) Quick Thinker. Prior to that he ran 3rd to Funstar and Probabeel, so there's plenty of depth to his form. He'll handle the wet and Murray Baker sure is a man who knows how to win a Derby. James McDonald rode him in the Tulloch but jumps aboard Castelvecchio here, with Opie Bosson getting the ride back on Quick Thinker following suspension. He looks value at $9.00. The New Zealand Derby is another good form reference for an Australian Derby and this year's NZ Derby was taken out by (4) Sherwood Forest. He dropped back in trip for the Rosehill Guineas but was well-beaten, and jockey Michael Walker immediately said post-race that he needs 2400m. In 2015 we saw Mongolian Khan win the NZ Derby and then fail in the Rosehill Guineas, but he came out in the Australian Derby after that and won. He's definitely worth including at $14 and if you look at his record, it tells us he's going to love the wet ground. Castelvecchio is the class runner and the one to beat but there is great value on offer with Quick Thinker and Sherwood Forest.
Value: (4) Sherwood Forest $14
Race 8 - G1 T J Smith Stakes 1200m (Market)
Fascinating TJ Smith Stakes here. (1) Nature Strip is our favourite at $3.60 but I'll be taking him on here. I can never seem to catch him but I just think this is a race which will have plenty of pressure, and from the inside gate, he might have to kick up pretty hard to hold the lead.If he does that, on a testing track, from the inside gate, he might be found out late over 1200m. He also comes into this off a soft lead up where he just got things his own way and sprinted home over 1000m. I think this will be a different complexion altogether. On the other hand, he's won three of his four starts when third up, he could just ping the gates and find himself a couple lengths in front after the first few hundred meters, and if that's the case, he's every chance of skipping away. It will be a fascinating tactical affair. (2) Pierata was a huge run in defeat in The Galaxy, coming from the back of the field with top weight on a day where you needed to be on speed at Rosehill. It was a terrific return and his second up record is outstanding, having never finished out of the top two from five starts. He's won three of his five starts over this track and distance and he looks primed to run a huge race here. (3) Santa Ana Lane was only plain first up behind Nature Strip over 1000m, but we've seen him spike sharply second up in the past. His past two second up runs were a victory in this race, and a 2nd in The Everest. The last few years, the best form for this is the Newmarket Handicap. The winner of this year's Newmarket was (7) Bivouac, and he was dominant. He then was backed as if unbeatable but was plain in the William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley, but the stable are convinced the track was his undoing. He ended up leading in that and just seemed to lack his explosive turn of foot. Expect him to be ridden off the pace here. The big query is if the rain does come and the track is very wet - that's been his undoing in the past. If that is the case and the track is very wet, it may be worth giving one more chance to (9) Exceedence. I think he's had excuses in his two starts back this preparation. It's near on impossible to win the Newmarket first up from a spell, and the Valley just didn't suit him last start. He really needs to improve but the wet track and the big spaces of Randwick may give him his chance to. (13) Loving Gaby ran 2nd in the Newmarket behind Bivouac but she turned the tables in the William Reid last start. I've already mentioned how the Newmarket is a good guide to this race in recent years and she just doesn't know how to run a bad race. I'll be having something on her at $7.00. The only query is the wet track. It's also worth mentioning that the barriers 8 and 11 have provided the last five winners of this race! I'll be looking to play on a few horses here, namely Pierata, Loving Gaby and potentially Exceedence if the rain comes.
Race 9 - G1 Doncaster Mile 1600m (Market)
I wouldn't say this is a vintage edition of the Doncaster. The George Ryder Stakes is actually a very good lead in terms of form references for the Doncaster and notably, only three runners in this year's race come out of the George Ryder. (19) Brandenburg was the best placed of the three runners in 4th, with (6) Best Of Days (6th) and (8) Super Seth (7th) further back. Brandenburg drops 5.5kg here and gets in with just 50.5kg with Glen Boss in the saddle. He's a horse that naturally puts himself on speed and with the light weight, there's little doubt that's where he will be. He probably deserves to be favourite and is a backable price at $7.00. (1) Melody Belle is at the other end of the weight spectrum, tasked with carrying top weight of 57.5kg. She brings a different form line, having had her first two starts this prep in Melbourne. She was unlucky in the All-Star Mile and with any luck probably would have gone very close. She comes into this third up from a spell, and she has four wins from six starts when third up previously. She's won four from six at the distance, and the huge thing in her favour will be the rain. She loves the wet, with 11 wins from 16 starts on rain-affected ground. Carrying this weight isn't easy, but it is possible. We saw More Joyous carry 57.5kg to victory back in 2012, Winx carried 56.5kg in 2016, while Happy Clapper carried 57kg last year. The wide draw is no issue - four of the last six winners have started from double digit gates - and I think at her best she will take a power of beating. The Ajax Stakes is another good form reference and (12) Imaging won this year's edition. That was after a forgivable first up run where Glen Boss played bumper cars. He's third up today, drops to 53.5kg, handles the wet ground well and is definitely one to include at $15. (17) Shared Ambition is a fascinating runner. He's only suffered one defeat from five starts since arriving in Australia, and he should have won that day too. He's won six from eight overall. He's dropping back from 2000m to 1600m today which is an interesting move given they've got the Cups in mind later in the year. He will prefer more groun than this but he's too much of an X-factor to leave out.
Race 10 - G3 P J Bell Stakes 1200m (Market)
(2) Rubisaki should just win this provided the inside isn't quicksand by this stage of the day. She's won six from eight overall, with the other two being 2nd placings. She won the Inglis 3YO Sprint at Warwick Farm two starts ago in exceptional fashion, and that was on heavy ground. She then backed it up with another strong win at Flemington in G2 company. She'll need some luck such is her racing pattern and low draw, but she's been nothing but impressive so far and deserves to be the price she is. (6) Wayupinthesky ran 2nd first up at Flemington and she's undefeated from her two previous second up runs. She also won her only previous start on heavy ground. Expect (3) Pin Sec to firm in the market first up from a spell. I think they'll have her ready to go here and her first up run last prep was very good. Think they've got a big job ahead if they want to beat Rubisaki!
