Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for the 2020 All-Star Mile at Caulfield on Saturday, March 14th.
We encourage you to check out the Betfair Hub, where you can access a range of information regarding the All-Star Mile and how to use the Betfair Exchange.
Check out our comments for every runner in the $5million race below.
2020 All-Star Mile Preview & Betting Tips
Betfair Exchange (Market)
Runner-by-runner analysis
(1) Kolding: Hasn't been as good in his first two starts this preparation. His first up run was probably a pass mark but his last-start effort at Caulfield was below par. He didn't handle Caulfield on that occasion and I'm happy to forgive him for that, but he'd need to improve sharply to win. With that said, he gets the blinkers on for the first time and he comes into this third up, where Waller runners can typically peak. Should get a good run from the barrier and on best form can win. Look for sharp improvement in the grand final today.
(2) Black Heart Bart: Was fair first up and as a 9YO he should take a couple of runs to come good, just as he did last preparation. I would have liked to see him come into this third up from a spell, which is when he begun to find form last prep, but he's just had the one run leading in. Loves Caulfield and draws well so expect him to be further up on pace, but he's yet to win at the distance from seven attempts. Looks tested.
(3) Fierce Impact: Has picked up where he left of last prep, with two terrific efforts in his first two runs back this time in. First up he was beaten a head in the CF Orr Stakes, and then ran 3rd to Te Akau Shark and Verry Ellegant, which is A-grade form. He's got a good third up record - he won a Group 1 at this stage last prep, and he's also a Group 1 winner over this track and distance. The soft ground poses no problem for him if the rain does come - he's had four top-two finishes from as many starts on soft ground. The draw is a tough one for him, but if he manages to slot in somewhere he can definitely fill a placing.
(4) Regal Power: Should have won the G1 Australian Cup last week but just found the front too early, which was more a case of circumstance than pilot error. The drop back from 2000m to 1600m on the one-week back up is a huge query for mine. I understand he's won both his starts at this distance and was a G1 winner over this distance last prep but the sharp drop in trip is a negative for mine. He draws OK in barrier 3 but they won't change how they ride him - he'll be left to find his feet out of the gates and Pike will be on a mission to get to the outside. I'm against him today.
(5) Streets Of Avalon: I was surprised they said they wouldn't contest Alligator Blood for the lead. Instead they'll sit outside Alligator Blood and they've taken the blinkers off to allow him to settle in the run. If you look at his run on paper his form looks very good, taking the scalps of Super Seth and Melody Belle last start over 1400m here at Caulfield, but let's not forget that was on a day where you had to be on-speed and on the rail, which he was. Happy to risk him.
(6) So Si Bon: Who knows where we will see him in the run. We saw him ridden back first up and then he went forward and led last start. I doubt they'll go forward as he tends to overrace just as he did last start. Has a terrible third up record and a terrible record at the distance. Happy to avoid.
(7) Mr Quickie: Looks a strong each way chance at double figure odds. His first up run last prep in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes over this distance was enormous. He should have won but was badly held up until about the 200m mark. He ran three sub-11sec splits from the 600m to the winning post (10.71, 10.88, 10.88). If he runs those kind of figures again he will be launching home over the top late. Draws well in barrier 4 and looks a good roughie at around $14.50 on the Betfair Exchange.
(8) Star Missile: Going hopelessly this prep and won't be going anywhere close on current form.
(9) Melody Belle: 10-time Group 1 winning mare from New Zealand. Her run first up was a pass mark on a day where it was impossible to make ground from off the pace/out wide. She's won three times when second up and has won four from five at the distance. Any rain would be a major advantage for her given she's won 11 from 16 on rain-affected ground. Gets a beautiful run from barrier 5 and should be able to land on the speed not far off Alligator Blood. Market has her about right and expect her to run very well.
(10) Aristia: Worked home fairly first up at Caulfield when it was quicksand out wide. She's only won twice from 22 starts so she really needs everything to fall into place and she's only ever won once from five starts at Caulfield. Looks tested in a race of this depth.
(11) Alligator Blood: It's hard to knock him. People - including me - keep finding reasons for him to get beat but he just keeps on winning. He's obviously the one to beat on his record alone; 11 starts for 10 wins 0.1L 2nd is nothing to scoff at. He's been in work a long time but he keeps showing up and getting better each time we see him. He ticked the 1600m box last start when strong to the line in the Australian Guineas and he looks to control the race again today with no horse appearing to test him for the lead. He should come across from barrier 10, find the rail and be very, very hard to catch once more. Deserves favouritism and is the one they all have to beat.
(12) Dalasan: Hasn't quite lived up to the hype this prep. His first up run was a pass mark when he wasn't given a great steer, but he's been disappointing in his two starts since then. Drawn poorly and would need to improve significantly.
(13) Superstorm: I think Pike has made the wrong call to ride Regal Power instead of this horse. His run behind Alligator Blood in the Australian Guineas was terrific after being held up at the top of the straight. He hit the line well and was only beaten 1.25L by Alligator Blood, who is favourite for this race. He remains at the mile, which I think is a positive while Regal Power drops back in distance from 2000m. He's won his only prior start when third up from a spell and we know how strong the three-year-old form has been this preparation. The draw is awkward for him and it's hard to know what the tactics will be - whether they snag him and try let him finish off, or use him as a bunny for Regal Power. Don't be surprised to see him ridden positively out of the gates. Think he's a strong place chance.
(14) Heart Of Puissance: Disappointing not to win a BM70 on a Wednesday at Sandown first up but he was quite clearly in need of the run and will improve out of sight for that. He's a horse that I'm wary of because I think he has the ability to be an A-grader and has untapped potential. This is an awfully strong race though, so I'd be surprised to see him win, but it wouldn't shock me to see him fill a place. The inside draw is a plus as he can tend to get a bit lost around the corner, and he should get a nice tow into the race from the likes of Alligator Blood and possibly Melody Belle. He's a horse to follow and include in your numbers.
(15) Flit: Not convinced she is a 1600m horse. She was dominant first up over 1200m in Sydney with the blinkers on for the first time, but not as dynamic last start over 1400m when favourite in the G1 Surround Stakes. Did win the G1 Thousand Guineas third up last preparation and that was over this track and distance, so they are both positives, but she'd need to record a career PB I think.
Betting strategy
There's a couple of ways we can play this on the Betfair Exchange. One good tactic could be to back (11) Alligator Blood and hedge out during the run. He's likely to trade short in the home straight. We've seen him lead all the way in his past two starts and his only career defeat came when run down by Super Seth right on the line. If he gives his customary kick in the straight, he could trade very low, in which case you can lay him at those odds and hedge out. If he wins, you win, but if he loses, you essentially get your money back (or still win depending on how much you hedge).
Otherwise, you can build a book around a few runners. I'd be backing Alligator Blood at around $3.25 on Betfair, and saving on the likes of (7) Mr Quickie ($14.50), (9) Melody Belle ($5.00) and (13) Superstorm ($12.50).
Away from the win market, there is also a range of head-to-head betting markets. Those markets include Alligator Blood v Melody Belle, Fierce Impact v Mr Quickie, Kolding v Flit, Regal Power v Superstorm, and Black Heart Bart v Streets Of Avalon.
Selections
1st (11) Alligator Blood
2nd (7) Mr Quickie
3rd (9) Melody Belle
4th (13) Superstorm
