Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, September 14th.
We've previewed every race on the card below.
Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, September 14th
Best Bet: Race 7 - (6) Arcadia Queen
Best Value: Race 3 - (8) Bull Market
Never keen to get too involved early in these Highway races but I'll be backing (11) Glamour Cruise each way at $12 here. She always needs her first couple of runs back from a spell. She's had eight starts when either first or second up and has only ever placed in one of those. Her only third up start was a win though, which remains her sole career victory to date. Last start she was beaten 2.4L by Lady Demi, which was last weekend, so she comes into this on the quick back-up. On that occasion, she settled at the rear of the field and only really got clear running in the final 100m of the race. As such, she recorded the fastest final 200m sectional. I think she represents a bit of value.
This is a really competitive race and I'm not overly keen to back anything, but I'll stick with the Waller pair of (7) Humbolt Current and (5) Lady Cuvee. I've been on Humbolt Current his past couple of starts and he gets another chance today. He's back onto firm ground for the first time this prep, JMac sticks with him (although he's out of form himself) and he's drawn well in barrier 5. He needs to eb going close today. Lady Cuvee is second up after a fair effort first up on heavy ground. She carried 60kg on that occasion and drops to 54.5kg today with Brock Ryan's claim. She's another that will appreciate getting back onto firm ground and the rise in trip will also help. Plenty of chances in this though.
Value: (5) Lady Cuvee $10
(7) Humbolt Current
$4.20
Another competitive race but there's two I'm keen on here. (6) Juventus is third up from a spell and comes into this having run 3rd behind Rock last start. I think that's a really solid form line and prior to that he won first up. Drops in weight, JMac sticks with him, he draws softly and should be right at his peak third up from a spell. Shoudl be very competitive in this. I think the price about (8) Bull Market at $31 is absolutely ludicrous. He ran the best 800m-200m sectional when beaten less than a length first up from a spell before he put in an absolute shocker last start. He's had four weeks off since that run and I'm prepared to forgive him for one poor run. His third up record is terrific with two wins and a placing from three starts so I think he can bounce back and run a much better race today. I backed (7) Adana last start when he finally got his head in front, but he has to prove he can do it on Good ground today. He also had absolutey everything go his way when winning that race. (5) Irukandji has been well backed in early markets and he should be a big improver third up from a spell, but his record at this track and distance isn't good and he's short enough at $4 now.
Value: (8) Bull Market $31
They'll have a hard time beating (3) Dabiyr here. He was a dominant winner at Moonee Valley last start, posting a 4.25L margin. Granted, he settled right up on speed and that probably helped a lot, but he couldn't have been more impressive. He's undefeated on Good ground and looks the winner of this race. (11) Castel Sant'angelo looks the logical danger from out the front, while (12) Mrs Madrid looks the clear value at $14. She was completely luckless first up but bounced back with a good win last start.
Value: (12) Mrs Madrid $14
Good little race. Obviously plenty of eyes will be on the return of Group 1 winner (1) Castelvecchio but I'll take him on today first up at Rosehill. I'll be playing three horses at equal stakes. (2) True Detective broke through on protest last start. He rises in trip today to 1500m which should help him and he looks to be very competitive once again. (5) Sudebar should improve greatly on the poor showing from last start on Heavy ground. He didn't go a yard in th ground but his two wins prior to that were good. Blinkers go on today so expect improvement. (6) Just Thinkin' was a good winner leading all the way last start. Expect the same tactics today and he could take some running down from the front. Hopefully one of those latter two can win and give us a good result at around $9 or $10 each.
Value: (5) Sudebar $10 & (6) Just Thinkin' $9.00
What a great litle field we have assembled. It's very hard to go past (4) Exceedence who blew them away first up. He looked last prep like he could be anything and his return to the track was sublime. The slight query today is the Good ground and whether that run on the Heavy track first up will have taken anything out of him. But I think he's an absolute star and expect him to be winning again.
We've waited since last December to see the return of (6) Arcadia Queen and she finally makes her reappearance today, first up for new trainer Chris Waller. She was last seen when storming to victory in the G1 Kingston Town Classic. Of course, she's already got an Everest slot locked up, so if she's going to be competitive in that you'd expect her to be putting this field away pretty easily. The only danger at all to her is (11) Trope, who I think is a really good horse and if Arcadia Queen isn't at her best, then he'll be winning. But she looks a class above anything in this race.
Two that stand out as bets here. (9) Mizzy returned to the races with a comfortable victory in G3 company over 1100m at Randwick. That was just her second career victory but she's been competitive in some top level races. She's drawn a touch awkwardly in barrier 9 today but if she can find a spot, I think she'll be right around the mark again. I think the clear value is (11) Dyslexic. I backed her first up at double figure odds when she was backed in to start about half her opening price. She drew wide, got back to last and ran home really strongly into 4th. I think she's well and truly good enough to win this and Michael Hawkes couldn't have given her a bigger push than what he did on radio throughout the week. She's drawn much better in barrier 6 today so she should settle much closer to the speed and I think she'll be right in the finish. She's a terrific price at $8.50. Backing both.
Looks another really good race for (14) God Of Thunder who was beaten a nose first up before posting a 2L win last start. He's now undefeated from his two starts at this track and distance. Gets in light with just 53.5kg and with even luck I think he'll be winning once again. (1) All Too Royal was a huge run to win first up on the Kenso. He's got to carry a big weight again today but that win was superb and he can be right around the mark again second up today. (12) It's So Obvious can be thrown into numbers at big odds - he has a great first up record.
(14) God Of Thunder
$2.00
