Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Day 2 of The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday, April 14th.
We have another four Group 1 races headlining the card – the Oaks, Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Sydney Cup and the Coolmore Legacy.
The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail out 3m. Last week the track played on-pace favoured. They’ve put plenty of water on with the hot weather this week, so I’m predicting the rail may be off, but on-pace will still be the place to be.
Be sure to tune in to Episode 30 of the Before You Bet Podcast, where Tim goes through the entire Randwick card, and you can find our Caulfield Preview & Tips here!
ROYAL RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 #2 Isaurian
Best Value: Race 8 #6 Prestwick
RACE 1
Tricky race to start off with. (6) Aristocratic Miss brings the best form to the race, with a half-length defeat last time out in Group 3 company over 1400m at Rosehill. Draws well in barrier 2 which means she will be far further forward than what she has been in recent starts, but if she’s strung up on the rail I’m not sure that’s the place to be in the straight? (9) Futooh comes out of that same race and although she finished 11th, you can put a pen through her run. She was never clear at any stage and looked to have a bit to offer. Collett goes back on her today and she’s perfectly drawn in barrier 6. She can sit midfield and get to the middle of the track. $7.50 is a good enough price. (11) Bold Arial steps up from 1100m to 1600m, which is normally something that makes me completely pen a horse, but from this stable, I’m more inclined to not worry. Waterhouse will have her very fit, and in her past two runs she’s run 2nd to Aylmerton and Pure Elation, who I have a good opinion of. The mile is obviously the big query but $11 appeals.
TIP: (9) Futooh / (11) Bold Arial EW
RACE 2
Looks a great race for (2) Isaurian who Godolphin have scratched from the Arrowfield Sprint later in the day to run in this instead. To add to that, Bowman rides him instead of the Waller horse. He won his first two starts and then ran into the smart I Am Excited last start, who is a leading chance in the Arrowfield, so the form is strong. Those two cleared out from the third horse last start, so if he can get a good run from barrier 8, he is the one they’ll have to run down. $2.90 actually looks a decent price. Interestingly, there’s been a good go for (9) Dark Dream early in betting. He comes off a 2nd placing on heavy ground at Kembla last start. That was his first run for two months so in all likelihood there’s plenty of improvement from him here. Definitely not hopeless at $12. (1) Torvill is a very talented filly and her form behind Shoals and Luvaluva certainly reads well for this. My query is the drop back from 2000m to 1400m. (3) Renewal has obvious claims with form behind Unforgotten.
TIP: (2) Isaurian
RACE 3
Suer competitive race with a field that all have form around each other. Most of these fillies have either raced against each other recently, or have come up against Sunlight and Estijaab in one race or another. I’m sticking with (6) Pure Elation who I’ve got a big opinion of. She seems to be putting it all together now, with a very good run behind Estijaab two starts ago followed by a dominant win at Warwick Farm last start. She showed a blistering turn of foot after settling towards the rear after drawing wide. She can settle much further forward here from barrier 3, just like she did behind Estijaab two starts ago. Locking in $4.20. (2) Fiesta ran a big race in the Slipper after sitting wide without cover the entire race. She ran 1st and 2nd in her first two starts this campaign and has trialled nicely since the Slipper, so expect to see her bounce back. She doesn’t map terribly well though. (11) Sister Sledge ran enormous on debut at 80/1, running 3rd behind Estijaab and Pure Elation. She maps very well, sitting outside the leader on a track that I expect to favour those off the rail and on the pace. Whether she can repeat that debut run is the query? (4) Outback Barbie ran 3rd to Sunlight on the Gold Coast and then finished 5th in the same race as Estijaab, Pure Elation and Sister Sledge last start, but she did sit wide without cover throughout. She’s another that can bounce back but maps awkwardly on the inside. (5) Gongs ran 4th in the aforementioned race behind Estijaab and she maps well here. Should be ready to do something third run back from a spell but I doubt she can turn the tables on Pure Elation. (7) Cristobal might be the pick of the Godolphin fillies. She ran admirably in 2nd last start behind Sunlight, finishing in the worst part of the track. I think the run was better than it looked, and hopefully Avdulla can sit one off the rail from barrier 4 here. She’s had 28 days off since that run but has had a quiet trial in between. Interested in her at $7. I have it between Pure Elation, Fiesta and Cristobal.
TIP: (6) Pure Elation / (7) Cristobal EW
RACE 4
I really have no idea here. It’s an absolute dartboard job, this. On exposed form, you’d have to say (1) Just Dreaming is the one to beat. She finished 1L behind Daysee Doom in Group 1 company last start, and drops back to a Provincial Final here. She’s finished top two in six of her seven starts at this distance. The query for me is the wide gate and the fact Bowman is on – he’s hardly going to take many risks to win a Provincial Final when Winx races later in the day. (4) Bon Amis looks a reasonable bet at $7. He was a horror watch in the qualifier last start, held up terribly on the rail until the 200m mark when the race was all over. He flew home for 2nd, and he showed in his first preparation that he’s a horse with plenty of ability. Needs a good ride from Shinn here. (10) Serene Miss is another that looks a chance at $8.50. She’s won five of her six career starts, and ran down a horse in very good form last start. Also draws poorly in barrier 17 but Collett goes on. (9) Pomelo has to be included at double figure odds second up from a spell.
TIP: (4) Bon Amis / (10) Serene Miss EW
RACE 5
I’ve been keen on (1) Viridine in this race for a couple of weeks now. In fact, I locked in $4.50 last week in All-In markets. He drops back to his own age group after finishing 3rd in a genuine Group 1 race last start. The form behind In Her Time looks very good, so third up, up to 1200m and back on a firm track, he looks the one they have to beat. (10) I Am Excited is in career-best form with three wins from three starts this preparation. McEvoy retains the ride and she draws nicely in barrier 4. (9) Houtzen bounced back to form last start, which was somewhat of a surprise to me, because I thought she was gone. She was helped by the way the track played last week, but there’s every chance it will play similar this week. Can she win again on the quick back-up? Big watch on (3) Pariah who was fairly luckless first up in Group 1 company at the Valley.
TIP: (1) Viridine
RACE 6
The Group 1 Australian Oaks. I just think (3) Unforgotten is the best horse at this moment in time, and I don’t see any reason to jump off her. All things considered, her run in the Vinery last start was huge. She maps perfectly from barrier 7 here and all we have to do is hope Bowman is at his best and not worrying about Winx in the next race. But this is a Group 1, so he should have his head screwed on. (2) Hiyaam was dominant in the Vinery but that was in part due to a terrific ride from Michael Dee, who rated her outstandingly in front. She’ll try and replicate that here but 2400m is a different ball game to 2000m and there looks to be a bit more pace in the race than last start. (4) Savvy Coup is the New Zealand Oaks winner, and that form typically stands up in this race. There’s a slight query over whether the Kiwi’s are as effective on Good tracks over here than they are on wet tracks (they lack the turn of foot the Aussie horses do) but she does look very smart and I’ll have something on at $7. (1) Aloisia was a very good run in the Vinery after doing plenty of work, but I just can’t tip her on top purely based on that. I’m not quite sure where she’s at right now. (5) Luvaluva was enormous in winning last week carrying 60kg after an interrupted prep. It will be a big effort if she’s to win on the quick back-up here.
TIP: (3) Unforgotten / (4) Savvy Coup EW
RACE 7
The Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. I’ll put the warning out there for everyone – this is the first time I think I’ve ever included Winx in a multi, so it’s probably the day she loses. It will be interesting because she’s drawn wide and has a few good horses to race against here. I think (3) Humidor in the ‘Without Winx’ markets is a good bet at $2.70. He’s up to 2000m, blinkers go back on, and really had a barrier trial in the Doncaster. I prefer him at this distance compared to (1) Happy Clapper, who is better at 1600m in my opinion. With that said, he is in career best form.
TIP: (9) Winx / (3) Humidor (Without Winx market)
RACE 8
The Group 1 Sydney Cup. Tough race! Normally in this race it pays to look at horses down in the weights. The last horse to win with a big weight was Mourayan back in 2013. Coincidentally, he was from the same stable as this year’s topweight (1) Almandin. Almandin really does look right up to this because it’s not a vintage field and there’s a lack of decent international horses here. Almandin is flying. He should have won the Australian Cup and he did win the Tancred Stakes last start. Draws perfectly here in barrier 5 and looks a big chance of winning this despite the 57kg. Of the horses down in the weights, there’s two I’m most interested in. The first is the Japanese horse (6) Prestwick. Just two starts ago he ran 3rd behind Albert and Fame Game over 3600m. That form is well and truly good enough for this, and that was second up off a short break. He follows a similar path coming into this. If Moreira can give him a good run from barrier 11, I think he’s a great chance at $10. (8) Auvray is also a horse I’ll be having something on at $13. He was tailed off last last start, he just wasn’t interested. But he got going between the 800m-200m and made up plenty of ground. He just peaked on his run late, understandably after having to do so much work to get close. He’s won twice over 3000m so the distance is no issue. Barrier 1 might be an issue though. (10) Aloft is obviously a big chance from the same stable as Almandin. He carries 51.5kg and McEvoy is off Almandin to ride him here, so you can guarantee a big run from him. The Chairman’s Stakes form is generally form to follow for the Sydney Cup, but I’ve got the Tancred rated higher than that this year. Backing Almandin, Prestwick and Auvray.
TIP: (1) Almandin / (6) Prestwick EW
RACE 9
The Group 1 Coolmore Legacy Stakes. Very competitive, but I’m sticking with two mares that have been good to me recently. (4) Prompt Response was strong when winning the Emancipation Stakes last start. She might be favoured by the track today, because if it’s playing well for those up on speed and off the rails, then it will really suit her. 1600m might be her maximum distance but she’s in good form and draws perfectly. Happy to take $9 today. (7) Spanish Reef has been beating up on lesser opposition in Melbourne but I really love this mare. She’s come back in tremendous order this preparation and she should also roll forward from the wide gate. Much stiffer test for her but $10 is appealing. It’s interesting to note that Oliver is off Prompt Response and on to (10) Payroll here. I wouldn’t discount her. (3) Dixie Blossoms is going to have to come from a long way back, just as she did last start, but she’s got a great record here at this track and distance and could run over the top of them. (5) Silent Sedition and (17) Alizee are others that catch the eye, while (12) Aide Memoire is one I’ve followed all prep and could be a blowout chance.
TIP: (4) Prompt Response EW / (7) Spanish Reef EW
RACE 10
Tipping (11) Sugar Bella can turn the tables on (10) Quilista here, but it will be important to keep an eye on how the track is playing throughout the day, and whether it’s possible to make ground from the back of the field. I’m not sure Quilista will get the lead here, and if she has to sit outside the lead, then she may not be as explosive as she was last start. If Sugar Bella can get in the three-wide running line and be close enough on the turn, she may find the right part of the track and sail over the top at $5.50. (3) Spright maps poorly but looked to return to her best first up, so can feature once again second up. (5) Ravi was left to lead last start which wasn’t the intention. She’ll be ridden quieter today and I think she’ll be right in the finish. (8) White Moss an interesting runner.
TIP: (11) Sugar Bella
QUADDIE
9
1, 6, 8, 10, 13, 18
1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 17
3, 5, 8, 10, 11
