Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, January 27th.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position. It’s our first time racing at Rosehill in a few weeks so hopefully there’s no obvious bias.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. If you haven’t already, take a listen to Episode 19 of the Before You Bet Podcast and see which races at Caulfield and Rosehill Tim is keenest to bet into (skip through the 31min 45secs)! You can also find our Caulfield Racing Tips here!
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 Lanciato
Best Value: Race 8 Get On The Grange EW
Race 1
Rare that I’m keen to bet into these races but there’s a couple here I will be backing. OMAR trialled well at the start of the month behind Golden Slipper favourite Performer and they cleared out to the third horse which was encouraging. His second trial was just as nice, taking a sit behind the leaders before checking off heels and cruising to the line under a hold. Gerald Ryan will have him ready to win on debut here and from the good gate he looks hard to beat. $3 seems fair. I absolutely loved the trial of OUTRAGEOUS, who trialled significantly better than the winner of the heat OSORNO. Outrageous sat back in the field and was running all over their backs up to the line and if he was let loose at any stage he looked as if he would have put them away. He ran in a hot race on debut and looks a big player here. $5.50 available. PEMBROKE CASTLE is on debut after three trials for Waller. He’s been brought along steadily but looks ready to win. VENOM could be a blowout. Backing both Omar and Outrageous equally which will double our money if either wins.
TIP: Omar / Outrageous
Race 2
Small field. Pretty simple – if SIEGE OF QUEBEC returns as good as he was last preparation he’ll win this. Keep an eye on betting with this stable though. If the betting is a bit fishy pre-race (i.e. if he hits $2) KENNEDY could be the one to be on. He ran enormous last start after being given no hope, trapped three-wide the trip under 61kg. SINGLE BULLET ran another honest race last time out at Gosford but is just struggling to win another race.
TIP: Siege Of Quebec
Race 3
Tricky little race. SHOW A STAR goes on top, not with much confidence, but $7.50 is a good enough each way price for me to entertain. He ran well enough first up in a decent race behind Lanciato and Noire, and Lanciato is just about favourite for the Carrington Stakes later in the card. He’s second up here and he’s had four starts second up previously for two wins and a 2nd. Should slide across to sit on speed and the apprentice takes the 3kg off. Think he’ll be there for a long way. NEW UNIVERSE was heavily backed last start and ran 2nd, and comes here on the quick back-up. Can win but he hasn’t quite lived up to the heights I expected him to this prep. EUSEBIO is third up and ready to win but he was beaten by Voiler last week and that’s not terribly strong form. He’s well found in the market but does get his chance to win another race here. KING DARCI will roll to the lead and should the rail be hot then he might be hard to catch, while HUNTER JACK gets a big jockey change and maps to get a nice run. PROMETHEUS has won both starts this preparation at Kembla. His latest win as better than the margin suggests, after he bombed the start and still managed to get up. The form out of that race hasn’t exactly been franked given the horse he beat ran 5th at its next start. He has to prove himself as a Saturday metropolitan horse still.
TIP: Show A Star EW
Race 4
There’s a few that have been backed in this but I thought it’d be between two horses. Sticking with ANOTHER SIN who drops back to Highway Handicap grade after contesting a decent race last start, only beaten 1.1L by Pendeloque. The blinkers come off here, draws well enough and won in this grade at this track and distance on debut last prep. ORI ON FIRE bolted in by more than 4L first up at Tamworth. This is obviously a much harder race and he is probably better at the 1000m than 1100m but he should be very competitive. Outside of those you obviously have to respect the Danny Williams runner EL MO. The stable win these races for fun and the horse is only lightly raced and broke its maiden at Goulburn last start. Again, this is harder but Avdulla is a positive jockey booking. THE LION, BIG REG and OUR ROSEMAREE others at longer odds to throw in.
TIP: Another Sin
Race 5
Race marred by scratchings, leaving me only interested in backing two. MEROVEE was scratched from a good race last weekend in order to run here and despite this being well short of what will be his best distance, his class may get him over the line. He progressed with every start last prep and only got better as the races got longer, but he’s lightly raced and I don’t think there’s much opposition here so he may be too good for them fresh at $4.80. THAAD resumed with a good run which was his first as a gelding, and didn’t get a whole lot of room in the straight. He’ll also appreciate the step up in distance here but may be giving them a start from the wide barrier. $6 available for him looks reasonable. BRATISLAVA was disappointing last start and prior to that he was going around in midweek grade so he needs to step up here. SAMADOUBT will cruise to the lead and be tough to run down, while LOFTY’S MENU has a great second up record and could be worth forgiving for a disappointing first up run.
TIP: Merovee / Thaad EW
Race 6
Very keen to back two here. MOSS TRIP returned with a super win first up at Kembla, and while I’m normally very wary of that kind of form standing up in city grade, she may be able to defy that. She was last on the turn but when she found daylight down the outside she put the race to bed within a matter of strides and bounded away to win by 2L. Avdulla rides at 53kg here which is an ominous sign. Also very keen to bet on O’RACHAEL who is ready to win. She was super first up but a touch flat second up. Waller has sent her back to the trials and her trial was outstanding. She’s up to better races than this at her best. $6 available for her at the moment but I’d expect her to start much shorter. WITCHES didn’t get any luck last start and should run another good start. She’s going very well.
TIP: Moss Trip / O’Rachael EW
Race 7
Interesting little race. There’s a bit of a boom around for this import for the Snowden stable by the name of GEORGE PATTON. On his best form, he’d win this race easily. He beat Robin Of Navan as a juvenile and was beaten just 6L when running 4th in a Group 1 behind The Gurkha in France. He was then sold to Hong Kong, but injuries plagued his time there and he was retired without having a race start. Those injuries included a stress fracture in his shoulder and a stress fracture in his proximal radius (two serious injuries), hence he’s been off the track for 584 days. To win first up in Australia from that long off the track, with those injuries suffered, and with just one trial under the belt, would be an enormous effort! This stable is certainly capable of pulling that off, but you can leave me out at that price. I’m with LANCIATO who was hugely impressive beating Noire last start. No reason he can’t go on with it here at a track and distance he goes very well at. Locking in $3.50. SUPREME EFFORT could be the value at $7.50. He hasn’t had much luck in two starts back from a spell and his third up record is terrific so with a soft draw I expect him to run a big race here.
TIP: Lanciato / Supreme Effort EW
Race 8
EMPEROR’S WAY is in good form with two wins from his past three starts and he may be able to chalk up another here. He draws a touch sticky in barrier 8 today but that could at least allow him to wind up and not be searching for gaps. He’s well found in the market but there’s not a lot that stands out in this race. The value could be GET ON THE GRANGE at the top of the weights, who comes into this third up from a spell. He never does much in his first two runs back but he’s got three wins and two placings from seven starts when third up so I’d expect him to run a nice race here at $12. ATLANTIC FOX will be thereabouts once again and gets a nice run from barrier 1. SIR BARB is going to win one soon and RED DUBAWI is another at longer odds to throw in the quaddie, along with NOTHING BOX.
TIP: Emperor’s Way / Get On The Grange EW
Race 9
I’ve got MY MAHER clearly on top here at $5. She was sound first up without being great, but she finds a winnable race here and gets a big jockey change with Brenton Avdulla taking over. She was scratched from a race yesterday in order to race here so with that in mind, she goes on top. ANNA’S JOY is one at longer odds that could win. All the form from her first prep was in the country but she was sound first up when easily beaten by Akasaki at Warwick Farm. Second up here, should go forward from the good draw and gets a positive jockey change. Just think she’s over the odds at the double figure quote. SATIRICAL MAGIC has won three on the trot but needs to convert Canterbury form to Rosehill form.
TIP: My Maher / Anna’s Joy EW
QUADDIE
3, 4, 11
6, 7, 8
1, 5, 7, 9, 10, 12
2, 7, 8, 12
$100 = 46.29%
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