It’s the 1v2 ranked Test teams squaring off as India host Australia in a five-match series starting Thursday, the 23rd of February. The two teams will compete for the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in what has been the most anticipated Test series since the last Ashes.
Make no mistake, travelling to India for a Test series is the currently the hardest prospect in world cricket. Australia have not won a Test in India since the 2003, a span of 10 Test matches in total. While the greats like Tendulkar, Ganguly, Dravid and Laxman have departed, a new crop of cricket megastars have taken their place and reclaimed the title as most feared Test team in the world.
Where to start with this Indian team, they are absolutely stacked full of talent. The obvious choice is captain Virat Kohli. I have no problems in stating that Kohli is head and shoulders the most dominant batsmen in cricket at the moment, his temperament is unmatched and with his ability to change speeds at will it’s no wonder he’s ranked in the top three batsmen in all three forms of the game. He’s one player who can win this series for India off his own bat, however, the beauty of the Indian team is that he won’t be relied upon for runs as heavily as some of his Australian counterparts.
With Rohit Sharma still nursing an injury, opening duties will fall to Lokesh Rahul and Murali Vijay, two fairly handy backups averaging 40 apiece in Test cricket. Vijay torched Bangladesh to the tune of 108 in their one-off Test match earlier this month while Rahul averaged 58 in India’s whitewash of England including a masterful 199 in the 5th test.
It’s a testament to India’s talent and depth that Karun Nair, who made 303 in the 5th Test against England, likely won’t make the team for the 1st Test against Australia. India have named a unchanged squad for the first two tests and the word is they will likely take the same side into the opener with Australia as their one off test against Bangladesh.
Cheteshwar Pujara and Ajinkya Rihane will round out the middle order, both of whom average over 47 in Tests while wicketkeeper Wriddhiman Saha is coming off a ton against Bangladesh as well. If there’s one stat that sums up how the Indian batting line-up is playing at the moment it’s the fact they have not been bowled out for under 417 in the first innings of a Test in their last 7 matches, and the first innings of their last 3 matches has seen them score 631, 759 and 687. It’s almost a guarantee that a Indian player will go off for a big ton in their first innings, at $1.61, any player to score a ton in the first innings is a safe bet.
TIP: First Innings 100 – Yes - $1.61 at bet365
The Australian batting line-up, while extremely talented in a few spots, can’t match the depth of the Indians. Steve Smith and David Warner are two of the top five batsmen in Test cricket, however, Warner has been in poor form by his lofty standards and is completely unproven on Indian soil. His only trip to India came in Australia’s 4-0 loss in 2013 where he scored just 195 runs at an average of 24.4. If Australia are to have any impact in this series, the onus will fall upon Warner’s ability to get on top of the spin of Ashwin and Jadeja early.
One player I have absolute full confidence in going into the series is Aussie captain Steve Smith. The best player of spin in the world bar maybe Younis Khan should have no problem handling the spin duo of India. The problem is who can support Smith, after the skipper and Warner, none of the Australian Top 6 have played a Test in India and at least 1 or 2 of them will have to step up in a big way. Smith to be the top Series run scorer at $3 is an extremely safe bet.
TIP: Steve Smith Top Australian Run Scorer - $3 at Sportsbet
Usman Khawaja and Peter Handscomb could be capable. Khawaja’s wristy action could either be very beneficial or very detrimental to him on the spin friendly wickets while this opportunity for Handscomb could propel him to one of the premier batsmen in the world.
India’s bowling line-up is led by the number one and two ranked bowlers in Test cricket in Ashwin and Jadeja. They have taken over 370 wickets between them and both have an average under 26, which is a great mark when you play over half your Tests on high scoring Indian wickets. They’re capable of bowling for hours on end in the hot Indian sun and should bowl the majority of the Indian overs. They’ll be backed up by veteran Ishant Sharma who boasts 215 wickets in an underrated 74 match career. While it’s defeinitely the spin that will do the job for India, it’s the quicks for Australia who will attempt to break the mould and play well in India.
TIP: Ravi Jadeja Top Indian Series Wicket Taker - $3.40 at bet365
Mitchell Starc played just two of Australia’s four match series in India in 2014-15, so is relatively unproven in the sub-continent. Starc and Josh Hazlewood will be the frontline paceman, while some decisions will have to be made by the selectors as whether or not to play two spinners and if so, which two spinners to play. Nathan Lyon is the obvious first choice and with the Australian’s taking three more spinners in Mitchell Swepson, Steve O’Keefe and Ashton Agar, the 2nd spinning spot will be up for grabs. Regardless of who the Aussies go with, India are renowned for their play against spin bowling, I think if any Australian bowler is to have a major impact, it will be Starc.
TIP: Mitchell Starc Top Australian Series Wicket Taker - $3.75 at bet365
All in all, it’ll be an uphill battle for the Aussies. Every Indian batsman is capable of making really big hundreds, regardless of the opposition bowling attack. This means the Indians are great at making ridiculous scores in their first innings and completely taking the game away from their opponents. I just don’t think the Australian batting line-up is experienced or talented enough to handle this new challenge in these conditions.
I’ve got India winning the first Test and the series comfortably, you can get either at odds of $1.70 (Unibet) which is a touch high in my opinion.
TIP: India to Win 1st Test - $1.70 at Unibet
TIP: India to Win Series - $1.70 at Unibet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
