Both the men’s and women’s batamnweight titles are on the line in the UFC’s annual New Year’s Eve card. But it’s the hotly anticipated return of the queen of MMA, Ronda Rousey that is capturing all the headlines. Can she reclaim her belt or will Amanda Nunes defend her’s for the first time? Read our UFC 207 betting tips including preview of the entire main card!
Amanda Nunes (c) 13-4 vs Ronda Rousey (#1) 12-1
Ronda Rousey burst onto the MMA scene in 2011 and completely decimated every opponent in front of her for the next 4 years. Until she ran into Holly Holm, who smashed her aura of invincibility in front of a packed Etihad Stadium in November last year. While Holm was a better technical striker, the current champion, Amanda Nunes, is by far the most dangerous opponent Rousey has ever faced.
Ronda Rousey is the proverbial one trick pony, it’s just that one trick is so incredibly effective. She uses her Olympic level Judo to toss opponents on their head and then locks in a seemingly indefensible arm-bar. Her mother is a former Judo world champion and her training began in diapers so it’s no surprise that as soon as the fight gets into the clinch its all one way traffic. However as with most one-dimensional styles, Holm and her coach Greg Jackson were able to craft a game plan to negate it. Holm’s blueprint was to stick and move, control the hips and break the clinch at every opportunity. It worked perfectly as Rousey was left running headlong into perfectly timed counters before being finished with a brutal head kick. Rousey did not react well to be hitting and seemed to get more reckless and aggressive, leaving herself open for even more powerful counters.
The big question coming into this fight is where Rousey’s heads at. To say Rousey took her first career loss poorly would be an understatement. She went off the grid for months only to return on the Ellen Show discussing how she has contemplated suicide and continues to refuse to do any pre fight media appearances. Whether this means she will come back the best version of herself or a shell of herself is anyone’s guess. What we do know is she chose to stay with long-time coach Edmond Tarverdyan who many believe to be the root of her striking short comings. Tarverdyan is universally considered the worst coach in MMA, he can be heard giving awful corner advice between rounds and everyone who moves to his gym seems to have regressed (see: Travis Browne and Jake Ellenberger).
Brazilian Amanda Nunes is the first openly gay UFC champion in history. She earned the title with a first round demolition of Miesha Tate at UFC 200. With 12 of her 13 wins coming by stoppage it’s easy to categorise Nunes as a slugger, but she has developed a very nuanced striking game and is equally comfortable fighting at distance or in the pocket. She has incredible power for the division and throws vicious multi punch combinations. Nunes does almost all damage with her fists; she does have 3 submission victories but they all came after she severely compromised her opponents on the feet. In stark contrast to Rousey, Nunes fights out of ATT, one of the best gyms in the sport. We are seeing continual fight to fight improvement from her and the sharp minds at ATT will no doubt tailor a gameplan specifically for Rousey. You cannot break down Nunes without mentioning the gas tank, while she has improved every other aspect of her game, cardio continues to be her Achilles heel. She really only has two rounds before her output drastically drops off and her defence opens up. Luckily for her it’s highly unlikely this fight goes past the two round mark.
Prediction: This one promises to be a super fun fight as long as its lasts, both women have clear paths to victory and amazing finishing ability. Despite her BJJ black belt, Nunes will want no part of Rousey’s grappling and if Rousey can’t get this fight to the mat, Nunes will chew her up on the feet. In retrospect Holly Holm’s length and style make her a nightmare match up for Rousey and Nunes has a lot of those same tools with the added bonus of much more punching power. But one loss doesn’t make Rousey a sitting duck and while she may eat some shots at some stage I think she is going to get hold on Nunes and take her for a ride. I think the only way this fight ends is by Nunes KO or Rousey submission and while there’s value in both I’m going to side with the fighter with a better proven track record of getting it done in the big moments. Ronda Rousey by 1st round Submission.
Tip: Ronda Rousey by submission - $2.20 at Ladbrokes
and/or Rousey by Submission using below CrownBet Special
Dominic Cruz (c) 22-1 vs Cody Garbrandt (10-0) (#5)
In a sign of the times; the men’s batamnweight title will play co-main event to the Ronda Rousey show. But make no mistake, this is as an every bit as intriguing contest. The best batamnweight to ever grace the octagon, Dominic Cruz will meet Cody Garbrandt, the hardest puncher he has faced to date. Cruz is the Floyd Mayweather of the UFC. Purists delight in his unorthodox movement and striking defence, but his lack of power and unwillingness to take risk mean a lot of his fights can be a little lacklustre. It only takes 10 seconds of watching Cruz fight to realise he is a very different fighter. He is constantly making unconventional movements with his head, feet and arms and always seems to throw strikes when he is off balance. He does not possess big power and of his 13 UFC/WEC fights only two have been finished in the first 3 rounds. He also has a strong takedown game; not because of great technique or a powerful blast double, because he blends them together seamlessly with his striking and movement. Cruz’s striking defence relies largely on head movement and distance control rather than using his arms to parry. This is an effective, but highly risky strategy; especially against a puncher of Garbrandt’s ferocity. He does have a good chin and has only been dropped a handful of times in his entire career.
Despite Cruz dominating the best fighters in the batamnweight division for the better part of the last decade, he has never faced someone with the skillset of 25 year old Cody Garbrandt. Garbrandt has utilized the combination of incredible hand speed and scary power to become one of the premier KO artist’s in the lighter weight divisions. He earned this title shot with three straight first round Kos. While he is aggressive and likes come forward, he is by no means a brawler. He has good technical boxing and is highly accurate. Unlike his Alpha Male team mates, Garbrandt does not come from a wrestling background and takedown defence has been an issue in the past and is certainly and area Cruz will look to exploit. Garbrandt’s chin and cardio are still up for debate, but Cruz isn’t a noted power puncher and in Garbrandt’s two career fights that have gone to the third round he has looked good. He does have an usually short reach for the division, but the is an issue he is used to dealing with. This is the first time that Garbrandt has fought in a fight of this magnitude and he has never been tested against anyone close to the skillset of Cruz.
Prediction:
Saying that he only has a ‘puncher’s chance’ is an injustice to his impressive skillset, but that really is the only way I see Garbrandt winning. While Cruz has impressive striking defence, he is by no means impenetrable and Garbrandt’s speed will present a real problem. He will need to do it early, because I don’t think he can maintain his power and output while chasing Cruz around the octagon for 5 rounds. I think Cruz can effectively stay out of range of Garbrandt’s danger weapons and stifle him with takedowns. Garbrandt may represent the future of the division, but I think this opportunity has come a little too soon in his MMA development and I predict Cruz to do Cruz things and earn a pretty one-sided decision or even a late and ground stoppage. Dominic Cruz by 49-46 decision.
Tip: Dominic Cruz round 4,5 or by decision - $1.72 at Sportsbet
TJ Dillashaw (#1) 14-3 vs John Lineker (#2) 29-7
Directly before the batamnweight title goes on the line, this fight will determine a new #1 contender in the division. TJ Dillashaw already believes himself to be the rightful champion after a razor close and highly controversial decision loss to Dominic Cruz in January. His opponent, John Lineker has won his last 10 UFC fights; and usually in devastating fashion. Dillashaw has always been a strong wrestler and kickboxer, but his striking has gone to a whole new level under the tutelage of Duane Ludwig. Dillashaw has excellent footwork and a varied offensive arsenal and like Cruz, he is a master of hitting without getting hit. He uses feints and angles to force openings and is comfortable trading kicks at distance or short, sharp shots in the pocket. Originally a wrestler from team Alpha Male, Dillashaw is a dominant grappler with good submissions, control and ground strikes. He has incredible cardio and a solid chin, but has been KOed by John Dodson, a fighter Lineker comfortably beat in October.
Brazilian John Lineker might be the closest thing to a pure brawler the UFC has ever had. He pushes forward with relentless pressure and unleashes powerful haymakers. His technique is lacking, but he throws in combination with some of the hardest punches south of lightweight. He’s most damaging when he has opponents’ backed up against the cage and can open up to the body. He is the shortest fighter in the batamnweight division and his stature makes him very difficult to takedown. He also has a nasty guillotine which he threatens with whenever anyone attempts to chain wrestle. The thing that allows him to push forward so relentlessly is his iron chin. Dodson cracked him with some tremendous shots that didn’t even faze him, so I can’t see Dillashaw having any more luck putting him away.
Prediction: Just like the batamweight title fight, this is a clear cut clash of striking styles. Dillashaw is the far more technical and well-rounded fighter, whereas Lineker has the ability to make lightning strike with his fists. The keys for Dillashaw will be to not get caught flat footed and not get backed up against the cage. If he can do that he should be able to dance around the ring and snipe at Lineker from range. Lineker certainly has the ability to earn a KO, but his judge friendly style could also see him earn a decision against Dillashaw’s more counterpunch focussed game. When this fight was first announced I liked Dillashaw, but I think he is far too steep at this price. While I see him winning pretty clearly on the feet, I don’t see him being the first man to stop Lineker, so I’m confident this one goes all three rounds. TJ Dillashaw by 30-27 decision.
Tip: Over 2.5 rounds multi’d w/ Kim-Saffiedine over 1.5 rounds - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Dong Hyun Kim (#9) 21-3 vs Tarec Saffiedine (#12) 16-5
This fight was elevated to main card after an injury to Cain Velasquez forced his bout to be scrapped. Dong Hyum Kim has been an enigma of late. He used to be a reliable fighter who dominated in the clinch and nearly always went to decision. More recently he seems to be much more interested in putting on entertaining fights, which has resulted in spectacular wins and brutal loses. His opponent is a Belgian former Strikeforce welterweight champion Tarec Saffiedine. Saffiedine is well rounded fighter with black belts in BJJ, Karate and Tae Kwon Do and has some of the best low kicks in MMA. His UFC career to date has been underwhelming and characterised with low output performances.
Prediction: This is a tough fight to break down mainly because it’s hard to know what Kim is going to look like. I think the safer option here is to play the over. Saffiedine has excellent defence, so if Kym comes out wild I don’t think he will catch Saffiedine. Conversely if Kim chooses to use his clinch game, Saffiedine is a good enough grappler to avoid the submission or being finished strikes.
Tip: Over 1.5 rounds multi’d w/ Dillishaw – Lineker over 2.5 rounds - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Louis Smolka (#12) 11-2 vs Ray Borg (#13) 9-2
This is a perfect fight to kick off the main card featuring two of the best grapplers in the flyweight division. Louis Smolka is a submission specialist who is concerned almost exclusively with offensive. He is so committed to looking for subs that he often surrenders takedowns and dominant position. He is most comfortable in top position; posturing up to land strikes, but is also very capable off his back. He doesn’t have a very strong wrestling game and tends to use a mixture of the clinch, the cage and his height to get the fight to the mat. While he has a limited stand up ability, this will be one of the few fights where he will actually have an advantage on the feet.
Ray Borg is a strong wrestler with a really good submission game to compliment it. Six of his nine career wins have come by submission and at only 23 he is showing off good fight to fight development. He has very rudimentary striking and really just bides his time to shoot a takedown. On the ground he has good control and is always threatening with submissions. He is particularly good in transitions and has an uncanny ability to sweep and take and opponents back. Following his recent loss to Justin Scoggins, Borg moved to the Jackson-Winklejohn super camp in Albuquerque and I expect him to show off some new wrinkles in this contest.
Prediction: This is one for the grappling aficionados; an excellent matchup between two very different but equally talented ground specialists. Both these fighters are very active on the ground and I can’t see either of them holding a dominant position for long. On the feet Smolka should have a slight advantage, but his takedown defence means it should hit the ground pretty quickly. When two high level grapplers compete, submissions are generally rare and I think that trend will continue here. I think Ray Borg’s stronger wrestling game will see him take advantage of Smolka’s over aggressiveness to earn a highly entertaining decision victory. Ray Borg by 29-28 decision.
Bet: Ray Borg to win - $1.87 at Ladbrokes
