UFC 202 and the much anticipated rematch between Conor Mcgregor and Nate Diaz is finally here and while it will steal all the headlines, the rest of the card is filled with sneaky good match ups with exciting fights and finishes almost guaranteed. That's why you can't miss our UFC 202 betting tips!
Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz
While this fight has no title implications, this anticipation for this rematch is at fever pitch and I expect it to do more PPV numbers than the monumental UFC 200. Conor McGregor (pictured below) has ridden the wave of Irish charm, a quick turn of phrase and a wicked left hand all the way to the top of the MMA world and is now one of the sport’s biggest stars. But every Ali needs a Fraser and in Nate Diaz, McGregor has found the perfect foil. Diaz came into the first fight as a big underdog on 11 days’ notice, but found a way to shock the world and silence the brass Irishman. Despite McGregor being the reigning featherweight champion (65kg) and Diaz being a natural lightweight (70kg), the first fight took place at welterweight (77kg) because Diaz was unable to cut down on such short notice. Such is the boldness of McGregor that he campaigned to have the rematch at welterweight as he feels he cannot truly avenge his loss unless the exact conditions are replicated.
In the last encounter, McGregor dominated the first round and landed a number of his patented left hands, but Diaz was able to eat McGregor’s power punches and as the Irishman tired, Diaz upped the pace and eventually earnt a dominant submission after doing damage on the feet. The plan from the McGregor camp seems to be to fight at a more controlled pace and look for sustained pressure rather than the one KO blow. There were questions over McGregor’s ground game going into the first fight and he showed off nothing to alleviate those concerns. No matter how hard McGregor works his grappling, he will do little to close the gap Diaz’s lifetime of BJJ training has opened.
While McGregor enjoyed great success in the first fight I think he needs to avoid pocket exchanges and the active Diaz jab by staying on the outside and utilizing his kicking game against the notoriously flat footed Diaz. McGregor is an innovative striker with excellent movement and balance, but the crazy KO power he had a featherweight didn’t translate to the welterweight division. He will still hold a significant speed and technique advantage and if he is able to maintain a steady output and keep the fight standing should win comfortably against Diaz (pictured below) in a pure striking contest.
Along with older brother Nick, Nate is one half of the infamous Diaz brothers. Their straight-talking interviews, exciting fight style and willingness to throw down 'anytime, anywhere' have made them some of the most popular fighters in the UFC. Stylistically, Diaz is a boxer with a very slick BJJ game, but absolutely no defensive or offensive wrestling. He sets a high pace and throws in combination to the head and body. A Cesar Gracie BBJ black belt, Diaz aggressively chases the submission and is incredibly dangerous off his back.
In the first fight, Diaz easily absorbed McGregor’s power punches and once the Irishman tired, he took over with accurate combinations and rubbed stamped it with rear naked choke at the end of the second round. If he can again withstand the early onslaught his high output and reach advantage will be hard to deal with in the later rounds. However, he can’t get wild, as McGregor has undeniable power and if he has made the necessary fitness adjustments will carry that threat throughout the fight. A lot is being made of Diaz’s lack of preparation for the first fight; he was partying in Cabo when he got the call just eleven days before fight night. He will no doubt come into this one sharper and in better shape, but the increased spotlight and media obligations will also take a toll on the usually press shy Diaz brother.
Prediction: On the surface it seems like a betting no brainer, Diaz has a resounding submission win over McGregor less than 6 months ago and you can get on him as an underdog. But in reality, McGregor clearly won the first 7.5 minutes of a 9 minute fight and the betting public obviously believe he can make the necessary adjustments. McGregor is pathologically determined and is training harder than ever, but Diaz’s height, cardio and chin will be just as big advantages the second time round. I favour Diaz ever so slightly, but not enough to pull the trigger in this spot. In the first fight the over was set at 1.5 rounds and I gobbled that up, in this fight it’s been set at 2.5 rounds and I still think that represents value. I don’t think Diaz has the power to stop McGregor and is almost impossible to stop himself. Nate Diaz by 4th round submission.
Tip: Over 2.5 rounds - $2.20 at CrownBet
Anthony Johnson (#1) 21-5 vs Glover Texeria (#2) 25-4
This fight is guaranteed violence. Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson and Glover Texeira are two of the most dangerous fighters and a win here should earn them a shot at Daniel Cormier’s Lightheavyweight title. Rumble is my vote for the hardest puncher in MMA; if he lands cleanly on your chin, you’re going to sleep. Cormier very nearly suffered that fate in their last title fight, but was able to ride out the storm and take over late before earning a submission finish. That fight was a microcosm of Rumble’s entire career, he is terrifying in the first round and a half, but if you can get him into deep waters tends to wilt and break. He is the protégé of striking aficionado Henry Hooft at the excellent Blackzillians camp in Florida. He has a varied kickboxing attack and throws every strike with fight ending intentions. He likes to switch between southpaw and orthodox and has underrated footwork. He will have a big speed and power advantage over Texeria which is a dangerous combination. Rumble comes from a wrestling background and his strong physical frame should give him the wrestling edge, however he will most likely use it to keep the fight standing, as he is up against a very dangerous submission expert. His career has been plagued with cardio issues and he tends to shell up and offer little offense once the fight gets past the first few rounds. If Rumble can’t get the early, Texeria will come back strong in the 3rd and will have a great chance of earning a stoppage himself. All four of Rumble’s legitimate loses have come by submission and that is worrying coming in against of grappler of Texeria’s quality.
Glover Texeria is Brazilian veteran who was late to UFC after dominating on the regional scene for the best part of 10 years. A high level BJJ black belt with a dangerous boxing game, Texeria is a well-rounded fighter who’s only UFC loses have come against elite athletes Jon Jones and Phil Davis. Texeria’s striking is limited, but effective. He doesn’t have a lot of variety and doesn’t string many combinations together. He is best when he can use his power to back opponents up against the cage and then unloads with excellent dirty boxing. However it is going to be difficult to back Rumble up, because who wants to move forward into those fists of fury. I don’t think Texeria will want any part of a standing battle in the first round, so will have to use his wrestling to try and get Rumble down or tie him up. Texeria’s biggest advantage will be on the mat, he aggressively chases guard passes and submissions and is clinical at eliciting a tap or finish due to unanswered strikes. Famous for his incredible toughness, age may be starting to catch up with Texeria as he has looked vulnerable to strikes in recent times, despite not being finished since his professional debut in 2002. There are also question marks over Texeria’s commitment to the sport, he trains out of his garage with no high level coaches or training partners (a stark contrast to Rumble’s situation at the Blackzillians). Texeria has struggled when taking the step up in competition, and he is still yet to register a signature win over one of the division’s elite. Rumble certainly presents that opportunity.
Prediction: Whether it’s against Daniel Cormier, Jon Jones or Cain Velasquez; Rumble Johnson has an excellent chance at earning a first round KO. That is the same story here and Texeria must find a way to negate Rumble’s ferocious punching power. Texeria himself has a pretty clear path to victory and if he can get the fight to the mat; should make short work of Rumble’s limited grappling defence. Given both these guys were at their best I think it’s a 50/50, but with Rumble’s clear fight-to-fight improvement and Texeria’s regression I have to favour the American. I think he’ll get it done by 1st round KO, but Texeria is just so tough so I’m not confident enough to lay juice on that. Anthony Johnson by 1st Round KO.
Tip: Anthony Johnson parlayed with Tim Means -$1.80 at Sportsbet
Rick Story (#9) 19-8 vs Donald Cerrone (#14) 30-7
Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone just loves to fight and get paid for it. He is constantly calling out his division and is always the first to put his hand up to take a short notice fight as an injury replacement. This mindset has seen him amass 21 UFC fights in the just 5 years. Following a dominate loss to Rafael Dos Anjos for the lightweight title, Cowboy opted to move up to the welterweight division and has looked excellent in his two fights since. In his last outing against Patrick Cote, Cowboy was able to pick apart his much larger opponent on the feet and tie him in knots on the ground. Another win here will put him right into welterweight title contention. However his opponent Rick ‘the horror’ Story is no stranger to ending highly touted fighters title aspirations; he was the first man to beat Icelandic submission prodigy Gunnar Nelson. Cowboy is a Muay Thai practioner who has a dangerous and active ground game. He has a varied kicking attack that includes impressive front and switch kicks and he is particularly dangerous from the Thai clinch. He has accurate hands that are mainly used to set up or mask his kicks. He has a solid double leg, but is going to have a hard time getting Story to the ground. This will be an interesting battle on the mat; Cerrone has a massive technical BJJ advantage, but Story is a much more dominant offensive and defensive wrestler. Six of Cowboy’s seven career loses have come against southpaws and he is again coming up against a crafty lefty.
Story is a wrestle boxer who likes to pressure opponents up against the cage or grind them out on the ground. If it wasn’t for controversial split decision loses to Mike Pyle and Kelvin Gastelum he would be riding a 7 fight win streak and is also looking to force himself into title contention. Story has solid left hand dominant boxing, but his bread and butter are body shots. He likes to hold opponents against the cage and unload with rib-roasting hooks. Cerrone has shown a consistent weakness to body shots and this will no doubt be an area Story will look to target. He will have a wrestling advantage, but I think he may use it to keep the fight standing or score takedowns late in rounds to avoid spending too much time in Cowboy’s guard. Story is a tough match up for anyone; he has a granite chin, an ugly tiring style and will come forward for the entire 15 minutes.
Prediction: Like McGregor, Cowboy is one of the most popular fighters on the roster and I think this is again skewing the odds. Cowboy is the more technical all round fighter, but he is coming up against a bigger, more physical opponent who matches up well against him. If Cowboy can get the win, he is probably only one more fight away from a title shot, but I expect Story to make this ugly and if he can’t get a body shot induced finish, should be able to do enough work against the cage to earn 2 out of the 3 rounds. Rick Story by 29-28 decision.
Tip: Rick Story to win - $2.40 at Ladbrokes
Hyun Gyu Lim 13-5 vs Mike Perry
This should be a great fight between two dynamic and aggressive strikers. Originally scheduled to fight Russian Sambo master Sultan Aliev, Hyun Gyu Lim will instead take on undefeated promotional new comer Mike Perry. South Korean Lim is a vicious KO artist who has finished all 3 of his UFC wins within the first two rounds. He is a big welterweight who likes to force his way into the pocket and unload powerful punches and knees. He doesn’t have much of a grappling game, but can do some damage from top position.
Tape on Perry is limited, he has only been pro for 2 years and all 6 of his career fights have ended in KO victories. In the few fights I could track down he appears to be an incredibly gifted offensive fighter, but has significant defensive shortcomings. He was rocked a number of times in those fights against opponents of far less quality than Lim. He no doubt has a puncher's chance to get the finish, but Lim is probably going to be too big a step up in competition, particularly on 2 weeks’ notice.
Prediction: Hyun Gyu Lim to get an early and violent finish. Hyun Gyu Lim by 1st rd KO.
Tip: Under 1.5 rounds - $1.83 at Sportsbet
Tim Means 25-7 vs Sabah Homasi 11-5
This is another fight put together on short notice when Tim ‘the dirty bird’ Means’ original opponent Sean Strickland pulled out with a knee injury. Enter another UFC debutante, Sabah Homasi who last fought only 2 weeks ago on August 5th. Both Means and Homasi are primarily strikers who have both earned finishes in their last 3 victories. Means is a high output striker who likes to push the pace and crowd his opponent. He comes from a Muay Thai background and favours the clinch whenever he can get it. He usually enjoys a pretty significant reach advantage at welterweight and is good at scoring from the outside.
Unlike the last fight, I’m a lot more familiar with Sabah Homasi. He fights out of the excellent American Top Team and was a past cast member of The Ultimate Fighter. Of Homasi’s 13 career fights, only 2 have gone to decision, so win or loss he is generally an entertaining fighter. He is a similar fighter to Means; he likes to throw a variety of strikes and prefers when the fight takes place in close quarters. As with many lower level fighters; Homasi is much more proficient at offense than defence. Neither these guys have much of a grappling game, so I don’t expect this one to spend much time on the mat. Homasi has shown off a pretty poor gas tank and that was particularly evident during his loss on The Ultimate Fighter.
Prediction: Means dynamic offensive means he has a good chance at an early finish, but his real advantage will come as the fight enters the latter stages. Four out of Homasi’s five career losses have come by finish and I think Means will be good enough to force another late stoppage here. Tim Means 3rd TKO.
Tip: Tim Means parlayed with Anthony Johnson - $1.80 at Sportsbet
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