XXXX Sunshine Coast Guineas QTIS Three-Years-Old Plate 1600m - Group 3
Group 1 racing in Queensland concluded for the year last weekend and racing moves to the Sunshine Coast this weekend, where the Group 3 Sunshine Coast Guineas is one of three blacktype races on the card.
The track is currently rated a Soft 6 but the forecast for Caloundra is for sunny weather on both Friday and Saturday which should mean we get a track upgrade to atleast a Soft 5, if not a Good 4.
14 are set to line up in the Guineas - lets go through the runners:
TIVACI: Has probably contested the hardest races of any horse in this race but significantly has a big Group 3 win next to his name in the CS Hayes Stakes at Flemington back in February where he defeated Palentino. That form is very much good enough to win a race like this and he comes into this third up from a spell and ready to peak. If he produces his best he goes very close.
PERFECT DARE: Has been running reasonably well in Group races at her past few starts including a 3rd place finish behind Counterattack, but he was a bit one paced and faded last start over 1400m despite a great run in transit, so the step up to 1600m could test him again. Draws the widest barrier so may have to go back.
MR INDIVIDUAL: Mixing his form as he has done throughout his career, though he didn't have a great time of it last start in the QLD Guineas. He was hampered, overraced and then hung out badly on the turn so he gets a near-side blinker applied here and he's trialed well coming into this race. Barrier 1 helps him a lot here and he is set to improve sharply.
SHOTACROSS THE BOW: Past two starts have been below par for me and he will have a big job to turn the tables on Sold For Song from last start. Blinkers off, winkers on, and the thing in his favour is his good record at this track (won 2 from 3). Happy to pass on him though.
PATRONIZING: Racing consistently of late with a string of 4th placings but they were in much easier races than this. Gets the blinkers off and has placed 4 times from 8 starts at this track but this looks a bit tough for him. He looks the likely leader in the race.
HIGH SPIRIT: It's always eye-catching when Peter and Paul Snowden send horses to contest these sorts of races. Battled on well to finish 4th behind Tsaritsa in the QLD Guineas last start and has had three weeks to refresh for this. Set to get a much better run from barrier 3 here and won't mind if the track is a bit wet. Set to go well.
TIME TO TORQUE: Scored a nice win last start in easier company when he resumed from two months off. That was in much easier company than this but his overall record is impressive with 3 wins and 3 seconds from 8 starts. He's another that won't mind it a bit wet and the step up to 1600m will also suit. Place chance.
RENEGED: Good win at this track two starts back in easier company and then another solid run behind Tsaritsa in the QLD Guineas. He finished midfield but was only beaten just over 2 lengths. Has won previously on a Heavy track in Sydney so any moisture in the track won't worry him. From barrier 5 will get a good run once again and can definitely run a race here.
MARTIAL ART: Two midfield finishes in easier company so far this preparation so will need to improve quite significantly to feature here but he has won third up from a spell before and also goes well at this track. Happy to bet around him though.
NO DOUTE BEN: Racing okay up in Rockhampton with a win in maiden grade followed by a couple of respectable efforts in Class 1. That's not enough to put him in contention here though. Pass.
SOLD FOR SONG: Has been racing really well in good races all campaign. Two starts back finished 3rd behind Tsaritsa in the QLD Guineas and last week turned the tables to win the Daybreak Lover. Was helped by getting to the fast lane first last week but the win was still full of merit. Beat home Tivaci by half a length when running 3rd in the QLD Guineas and they meet at the same weights here. Will have to come from well back here so Tivaci may get first run.
ROXY RHYTHM: Big win at Doomben two starts back when leading all the way. Strangely went back last start and ran on the finish 4th in easier company. I would think they would go forward here and try to pinch a break on the better horses, but even so I wouldn't think her form is good enough to win.
MADAME DE BAN: Won a fillies and mares Class 3 at Ipswich two starts ago and ran 3rd in a 3YO Handicap last start. Salmanazaar has come out of that race and finished 2nd in a decent race last week so the form has stood up. She will have to come from the back half of the field from barrier 13 - she could run on into a place.
PASSION IN FLIGHT: Runs consistently wherever she races and has a good record over this track and distance. A wet track would probably give her some sort of place chance but I can't see her winning this.
Summary
There's three or four that just look a class above the rest here.
Going to stick with Sold For Song who beat home both Tivaci and High Spirit when they met in the QLD Guineas three weeks ago. She had to come from well back in the field that day after starting from barrier 18 and still ran past both of the other horses. She then backed that up with a solid win in the Daybreak Lover last week. Draws wide again and will have to give Tivaci and High Spirit a start once again but I think she's good enough to win again.
I fancy High Spirit to run a big race, however, and if Sold For Song isn't at her best then this colt could be the winner. Has been building nicely to this and from barrier 3 will get a lovely run.
Tivaci is another that has been building well towards this and is set to peak third up from a spell here. Draws an inside gate so should use that to his advantage and if he produces his best he can definitely win.
Mr Individual has trialed well and barrier 1 will help him here after he hung badly last start. Near-side blinker goes on and he can run well.
1st SOLD FOR SONG
2nd HIGH SPIRIT
3rd TIVACI
4th MR INDIVIDUAL
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