Christmas Day in the US will see two huge games involving four AFC playoff teams, with the Steelers and Chiefs kicking things off in Pittsburgh, followed by the Ravens visiting the Houston Texans in the night cap. There’s no better way to kick off your Boxing Day in Australia, then with a double header of this calibre in the NFL, leading into the Boxing Day test!
NFL 2024-25: Week 17 Boxing Day Double Header
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Acrisure Stadium, Thursday 26th November, 5:00am (AEDT)
The Chiefs and Steelers last met in the Wild Card round of the 2022 NFL Playoffs, where the Chiefs destroyed the Steelers at home 42-21. Patrick Mahomes tore the Steelers to shreds, throwing for 404 yards and 5 touchdowns. Whilst these teams have changed quite a bit, the Head Coaches remain the same, and Patrick Mahomes is still with the Chiefs.
This game opened Chiefs -2.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening at the same price after both teams played last Saturday. The number has bumped up to Chiefs -3, however the juice is heavy on the Steelers +3 if you want to go that way. Whilst I like the Steelers at +2.5, if this number gets to a flat +3, the Steelers will be a bet for me. At the moment the +3 isn’t available at $1.91 or better, and as such is not a bet at the time of writing.
The total opened 42.5 and was bumped up slightly to 43 on re-open. It has been consistently bet up through the week, to where it now sits at 44. I make a fair total exactly 44, so agree with the move up in this game. The Steelers are 6-3 to the over since Russell Wilson has taken over, and the Chiefs offense looked better last week with the return of Hollywood Brown, so I would lean towards the over, but it’s not a bet.
So, the side and total look pretty spot on. In this case, I’m going to take the Chiefs to just win the game. They always seem to find a way to get it done, and I believe there is more value in the money line price as a result. Betfair currently has the Chiefs at $1.71 to win the game, which I see as the value play here.
Props wise, I don’t love the card. It’s hard to gauge who the Chiefs will use on a week-to-week basis, and I don’t expect the Steelers to be able to run the ball. I don’t love backing receivers coming back from injury, but I believe Pickens is the best bet here to go over his receiving total. We are getting Pickens at a discount on the totals he was being lined at pre-injury, and the Chiefs defence is susceptible to giving up chunk plays to elite wide receivers.
Prop Bet
George Pickens (over) 62.5 receiving yards - $1.90 at Bet365 (1u)
Chiefs to Win
$1.71 (2.5 Units)
Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens
NRG Stadium, Thursday 26th November, 8:30am (AEDT)
The Texans and Ravens met twice last season, once in the first week of the regular season, and again in the Divisional round of the playoffs. In week 1 at home, the Ravens closed 9.5-point favourites and easily accounted for C.J. Stroud in his first career start, winning 25-9. In the playoffs, the Ravens closed 10-point home favourites, winning 34-10 in a dominant display.
Fast forward to this game, and the Ravens opened 3-point road favourites on the look ahead, before re-opening as 3.5-point favourites after last weekend’s games. Money has since poured in on the Ravens, who now sit as 5.5-point road favourites. The Texans have been decimated by injuries, the biggest of which was the horrible knee injury suffered by Tank Dell last week. It took a hugely emotional toll out of the Texans, with players visibly upset on the field after the injury. Whilst my numbers say bet the Texans, I really like the Ravens to keep up their momentum and win this game by a touchdown or more.
The total opened 47.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening 47 after the week 16 games. Under money has moved the total below the key of 47, to where we now sit at 46.5. I make a fair total 46.5, and with the Ravens being a heavy overs team (12-3), I would lean to the over in the indoor conditions at NRG Stadium. However, I’m worried about where this banged up Texans offense gets their points and will steer clear for now.
Prop wise, I like Lamar Jackson to have another big game, and I’m going to throw in a little Same Game Multi for Lamar. Let’s take him over 215.5 passing yards, over 45.5 rushing yards, and to throw 2+ touchdowns. Lamar torched this Texans defence on the ground last season, and his passing has been next level this season. Just a small bet here, but one that should have a great shot at cashing.
SGM
L Jackson over 215.5 passing yards
L Jackson over 45.5 rushing yards
L Jackson 2+ Passing Touchdowns
$5 at Ladbrokes (0.5u)
Ravens -5.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
