Whilst this isn’t the glamour matchup that we have been getting used to on Monday Night Football, I’m actually really looking forward to this game. The Browns are must-watch football since serial sex pest Deshaun Watson went down with a season ending injury, as Jameis Winston has brought his gunslinger mentality to this Browns offense. The Broncos, meanwhile, have been one of the biggest surprise packets of the season, with rookie quarterback Bo Nix chasing down Jayden Daniels for the offensive rookie of the year award. This should be an entertaining game of football!
NFL Week 13 Betting Tips
Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns
Empire Field at Mile High, Tuesday 3rd November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Broncos won their second in a row last week to get to 7-5, where they currently hold the 7th and last playoff spot in the AFC. They took on the Raiders on the road, and despite trailing 13-9 at the half, never shied away from their identity. Nix continued to get the ball out to his two favourite targets in Courtland Sutton and rookie Devaughn Vele, whilst also playing swarming defence on the big plays. The Raiders only managed to go 1-5 in the redzone, completed 3rd downs at just 28.6%, and turned the ball over twice. The Broncos did struggle to run the football, something they will need to improve this week against a solid pass defence in the Browns.
Speaking of the Browns, they had their biggest win of the season last week on Thursday Night Football, storming past their AFC North rivals, the Steelers, winning 24-19 on the back of some Winston brilliance. Whilst statistically the quarterback was about average, he made some huge plays in high leverage situations to get the Browns home. However, it was on the defensive side of the ball where the player of the game came from, with stud pass rusher Myles Garrett having a day, sacking the quarterback 3 times, recording 3 tackles for loss, 3 quarterback hits, and a forced fumble. A huge game for the defending defensive player of the year, and a player definitely worth a look for this season’s award ($16 @ NEDS and Ladbrokes).
Match Preview
The Browns and Broncos last played in week 12 of the 2023 season in Denver, where the Broncos closed 2-point home favourites, and the total went off at just 37.5. I will take absolutely nothing from this result, given Russell Wilson was starting for the Broncos, and the Browns had a mash unit of Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Phillip Walker playing at quarterback. The Broncos won, 29-12, for what it’s worth.
Looking forward to this game, the Broncos opened 7-point home favourites, before there was a huge move at re-open in favour of the Browns, as the number re-opened at 5. The spread has ping-ponged between 5 and 6 since this time, and in my opinion the Browns have been upgraded far too much on the back of their victory over the Steelers. It was a massive game for the Browns, and they were fully up for it at home, and given the fact they play @ Pittsburgh again NEXT week, this is a massive letdown spot here for the Browns. I make the Broncos a 7.5-point favourite, so love the value here with the Broncos. Denver have been brilliant this season against the spread, going 9-3 ATS in all games, and 5-0 ATS as favourites.
Looking at the total, it opened 40.5, before re-opening at 41 after the week 12 games were completed. It’s now north of the key number of 41, sitting at 41.5, and I like the over in this game. The Broncos have gone over in 6 of their past 8 games, whilst the Browns are 3-1 to the over in games Jameis Winston has started, with the only under being against the Chargers, who at the time were a heavy unders team. I don’t like it as much as the spread, given its above 41, but I will still be betting the over in this game. My fair total is 44.
Looking towards props, and I like a couple of Bronco wide receivers to do well. Both Courtland Sutton and Devaughn Vele have proven to be Bo Nix’s favourite targets, and with Vele’s number just above 30, I’ll take him to go over.
Prop Bet: Devaughn Vele (over) 31.5 receiving yards - $1.90 at Dabble (1.5u)
Broncos -5.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
