Another big AFC North rivalry is set to go head-to-head, as the dominant Pittsburgh Steelers head to Cleveland to take on the lowly Browns. Despite the gap in talent between these two rosters, these teams love playing tough, tight contests. Let’s hope for another good one here on Thursday Night Football!
NFL Week 12 Preview & Betting Tips
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Huntington Bank Field, Friday 22nd November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Browns were horrible last week, in a game they ended up closing as road favourites against the Saints. They were supposed to be much better, coming off the bye and a poor result two weeks prior, money came in heavily on the Jameis Winston-led Browns. To be fair, the Browns stayed with the Saints for the most part, however in the fourth quarter they were horrible, conceding three unanswered touchdowns to lose 35-14. Jameis was good when looking at the box score, throwing for 395 yards and 2 touchdowns, however the Browns’ inability to get it done in the redzone hurt them. The team looks dead, and if they can’t get up for a big divisional game this week, their season is done.
On the opposite end of this spectrum is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last week, it was the Steelers’ defence which got them the win, as they held the best offense in the league to just 16 points, squeaking by the Ravens 18-16 despite not scoring a touchdown. Russell Wilson struggled, and there were some concerning signs for this offense moving forward, however this team just finds a way to win. George Pickens continued his breakout season, securing 8 catches for 89 yards, as well as a couple highlight plays which we have come to expect from the third year wideout.
Injury Report
Cleveland Browns
Dawand Jones / James Hudson (OT) – OUT
Geoff Swaim (TE) – OUT
Nick Harris (C) – OUT
Myles Garrett (DE) – Questionable
Elijah Moore (WR) – Questionable
Denzel Ward / Greg Newsome II (CB) – Questionable
Jedrick Wills (OT) – Questionable
Joel Bitonio (G) – Questionable
David Njoku (TE) – Questionable
Pittsburgh Steelers
Logan Lee / Montravius Adams (DT) – OUT
Cole Holcomb (LB) – OUT
DeMarvin Leal (DE) – OUT
Cory Trice / C.J. Henderson (CB) – OUT
Roman Wilson (WR) – OUT
Alex Highsmith (OLB) – Questionable
Match Preview
This AFC North rivalry happens twice a season, and this will be the first matchup between the teams this season. Last season, the team’s first met in week 2 in Pittsburgh, with the Steelers closing as 2-point home underdogs, after the Browns hammers the Bengals in week 1. The Browns led 22-19 after three quarters, but a T.J. Watt fumble return for a touchdown got the Steelers home 26-22, clinching the win and cover. The total closed 39, easily going over.
In the rematch, the Browns closed 2.5-point home favourites in week 11. In a matchup that pitted Dorian Thompson-Robinson against Kenny Pickett, there wasn’t a whole lot of offense, as the Browns snuck home 13-10 after a walk off 34-yard Dustin Hopkins field goal sealed the win.
This week, the Steelers opened up as 4-point favourites on the lookahead, before the number moved to 4.5 after their win over the Ravens last week. The number has slowly moved in throughout the week, which I believe has a lot to do with the threat of poor weather in Cleveland on Thursday Night. This is also reflected heavily in the total, but I’ll get to that. My fair spread in the game is the Steelers as a 2.5-point favourite, so I see value in the Browns getting more than 3 here. Given how poor the Browns have been though, this will not be a huge bet.
Looking towards the total, and it opened 41.5, before re-opening at 40. The under was bet heavily early, with moderate to heavy winds and rain expected in Cleveland for kick-off. The total now sits at 36.5, which if the weather subsides, I will be looking to bet the over. The Browns’ vaunted defence has struggled this season, and with both teams shaping up as over teams with their new quarterbacks, the over is the only play to make here. However, given the uncertainty over the weather, I can’t make that call at the time of writing, and as such this won’t be a play.
Looking towards props, and this will also be a small play given the unknown about the weather. Both defences are staunch against the run, so we will look to the wide receivers. If the weather holds off, I’ll be looking at several overs if the numbers stay the same, with Jameis Winston playing like a wide receiver’s best friend. Here though, I’ll take Steelers’ number 1 receiver George Pickens to go over his total, which is set at 55.5. Pickens has gone over this number in 7 of 10 games, with only two games under 53 receiving yards. With the Browns’ two best corners banged up, Pickens should get this number with ease.
Prop Bet
George Pickens (over) 55.5 receiving yards - $1.90 at Bet365 (1u)
Browns +3.5
$1.91 (1 Unit)
