We head to Flushing Meadows in New York for the final tennis grand slam of the year as the 2024 US Open starts this week. Our tennis guru 'Ace' is here to cast his eye over the outright markets for both the men’s and women’s US Open tournaments, and provide his selections from around the courts.
2024 US Open Preview & Betting Tips
ATP
Quarter 1
Quarter 1 is highlighted by world number 1 Jannik Sinner, who has been in the news for all the wrong reasons. Nevertheless, his best tennis on the hardcourt this year has still been the best tennis on tour, and he did raise the trophy in Melbourne at the other hard court grand slam of the year.
I do have some question marks though for Sinner (at his price, not as a player overall). He has looked a little knocked up at times physically in recent months, and I do wonder if the rigours of a massive fortnight here after a massive year may cause some issues. Couple that with an interesting draw and I am happy to look elsewhere at decent odds.
The player that appeals to me the most in this quarter is Daniil Medvedev. He has the runs on the board at Flushing Meadows, has a recent win over Sinner (albeit on the grass), and ultimately is a player that is more suited to the longer format as he can go off the boil for periods. Looks to be a very solid price in my opinion for both the quarter and the outright.
Of the rest of the players, it is hard to be drawn to Stefanos Tsitsipas given his production in New York in the past and his current form lines, Tommy Paul hasn’t quite looked at his best in recent weeks, Felix Auger Aliassime has a gulf between his best and worse tennis and across a grand slam you are likely to witness it all. Medvedev is the only pick in this quarter.
Daniil Medvedev 1st Qtr Winner
$4.33 (0.75u)
Quarter 2
The markets around this quarter are absolutely dominated by Carlos Alcaraz, and the price looks about right at the moment. If you take a look at the next 4 players in the market:
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Alex De Minaur (coming off a significant injury)
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Sebastian Korda
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Hubert Hurkacz (early in return from significant injury)
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Karen Khachanov (poor form lines)
And Korda is probably the only one that you could mount a decent case for given form and fitness. Beyond that we have Jack Draper, Roman Safiullin, Alejandro Tabilo and Denis Shapovalov, however it is hard to make a strong case for them against Alcaraz. The $1.40 looks about right for the Spaniard.
No Bet
Quarter 3
With no Sinner, Alcaraz, or Djokovic, this is the section of the draw that is a little more open, with Alexander Zverev at the top of the market. The German has looked solid recently, however $2.20 to win the quarter isn’t something that is causing me any great excitement. I think the current odds for the next few in the market in Taylor Fritz, Holger Rune and Matteo Berrettini look to be correct – all are capable of beating each other on their day but all have different question marks in my opinion. A little further down the market it is Lorenzo Musetti who has caught my eye in the quarter markets, coming off some strong tennis across surfaces in recent months. I’d rather a smaller selection on Musetti at the longer odds than a larger selection on the top players in the market.
Lorenzo Musetti 3rd Qtr Winner
$17 (0.5u)
Quarter 4
Another quarter that is dominated by a player at the top of the market. Novak Djokovic may have snagged the Olympic singles gold medal that has alluded him during his career, however it is a little strange coming to the final grand slam of the year and Djokovic going 0/3 through the Australian Open, Roland Garros and Wimbledon. He is short in the market and justifiably so.
I’d love to see Andrey Rublev make a breakthrough at Grand Slam level, however he has become somewhat of a tough watch this year and the further the tournament progresses, the more things may tighten up. He looks the best shot of the rest, followed by Frances Tiafoe, however Djokovic hasn’t really given strong reasoning to oppose him in any capacity coming into this one.
No bets – Novak outright bet below
Overall
I won’t be casting the net too wide with the outrights, as I do like a couple at the top of the market. In order of preference, the players I like at the current odds are Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev and Lorenzo Musetti. I am wary mostly of Alcaraz, and may consider betting him to simply break even in the outright markets, however I will hold fire for now. I am happy to play around Jannik Sinner in the market currently as well.
Also Backing:
Daniil Medvedev to win - $19 at Betfair (0.75u)
Lorenzo Musetti to win - $100 at Betfair (0.25u)
Novak Djokovic to Win outright
$3.60 (1.75u)
WTA
Quarter 1
World number one Iga Swiatek is coming into a hardcourt grand slam where she is not the tournament favourite, however she is still an odds on favourite to win this first quarter. Her form this side of Roland Garros has left a bit to be desired. As I have mentioned a few times in these outright previews, the best way through Swiatek is with power hitting and taking the racquet out of the world number one’s hands, and leading her to become frustrated. We’ve seen it a couple of times recently, and even Qinwen Zheng’s level at Roland Garros (the Olympics edition) was indeed impressive. On her overall level and body language on court more recently, I’m inclined to look elsewhere.
When I look at the draw, there are three players that do catch my attention (apologies to Jessica Pegula who doesn’t quite make the cut at her current pricing quote). They are Mirra Andreeva, Liudmila Samsonova and Danielle Collins. Now Andreeva and Samsonova are too close to each other in the draw to back either (or both), and looking at the bottom portion of this draw (away from Swiatek, Andreeva and Samsonova) is where Collins sits. It’s a quirky first round match-up but at a level near her best she should be genuine threat here in what will be her last grand slam.
Danielle Collins Qtr 1 Winner
$9.50 (0.5u)
Quarter 2
It’s great to see Elena Rybakina back in a main draw after what as been an up and down period for one of the trickiest players to face on tour. However, given her lack of continuity, and her recent split from her coach in the lead-up to the US Open, I am not sure I am itching to jump into her short price here before she evens steps on court. If she makes it through a couple of early rounds and looks solid, I may reconsider, however I’d expect the market to find her pretty quickly if she looks strong.
I’m trying very hard to not be drawn into considering Naomi Osaka a major threat here in any capacity, as the last couple of times I’ve leant into her price it has ended with an early tournament loss. I think I am happy to look past Jasmine Paolini (tricky round 1 vs Andreescu) and Karolina Muchova (limited tennis and second round vs Ostapenko/Osaka). Given I am keen to be somewhat against Rybakina early, I might look to Anna Kalinskaya, who has a high ceiling with respect to her 2024 form.
Anna Kalinskaya Qtr 2 Winner
$12 (0.5u)
Quarter 3
It’s the defending champion at the top of the market in this quarter, however the form of Coco Gauff coming into this tournament is a little bit concerning. Gauff went 1-2 through Toronto and Cincinnati, with losses to Shnaider and Putintseva, As I work my way through the rest of the players in this section, and looking at her potential draw in this one she is likely to face tricky opposition from the third round onwards. The key names that stand out are Emma Navarro, Paula Badosa and Elina Svitolina. I feel the market has found the first two a little more with their recent form, however I think I can make a case for Svitolina potentially challenging Gauff in round 3 and making a run here, however it will be a very small selection.
Elina Svitolina Qtr 3 Winner
$9.50 (0.25u)
Quarter 4
If Aryna Sabalenka brings a level near her recent level, she should be able to make her way through this portion of the draw, She will be a strong favourite through each match, and although I won’t be taking the $1.50 for her to win the quarter, I will be backing her in the outright markets.
To find some value in the quarter winner market, I am looking to the top half of the section. There isn’t a lot that is standing out to me, especially with Zheng and Anisimova meeting in round 1, however the $67 for Dayana Yastremska to win the quarter is a solid longer odds selection.
Dayana Yastremska Qtr 4 Winner
$67 (0.25u)
Overall
There is one key name that I am keen on in the outright market, and that is Aryna Sabalenka. I’ll take her as the main selection here, and some smaller stakings on Collins, Svitolina and Kalinskaya.
Also backing:
Danielle Collins to win - $42 at Betfair (0.25u)
Elina Svitolina to win - $76 at Betfair (0.25u)
Anna Kalinskaya to win - $130 at Betfair (0.25u)
Aryna Sabalenka to Win outright
$3.60 (1.75u)
