Ten games for the Monday morning slate this week in the NFL, with 6 early window games, and 4 late window games. There are several big divisional matchups in both windows, however the highlight of the slate is definitely the huge showdown between the Eagles and Bills. With the total set at 48.5 for this one, it’s a game that I’ll be looking to stack in some of my squads, with points expected from both teams.
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NFL 2023-24 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 12
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen - $15,990
Allen continues to get the job done in fantasy, ranking first in quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. He ranks eighth in yards per attempt, ninth in passer rating, and tenth in adjusted completion rate. He also appears to be far healthier than he was for the previous month, showing that he is capable of running the ball more often recently. Despite the huge matchup this week with Philly, it’s actually not a bad opponent for QBs, with the Eagles allowing the third-most passing touchdowns, seventh-most passing yards per game, the ninth-highest completion percentage over expectation, and the 11th-highest adjusted completion rate over their last five games.
Kyler Murray - $13,550
Murray has shown in the past that he has high-end QB1 upside in fantasy, and over his first two weeks back he has showed no signs of slowing down. With scores of 18 and 23 over his first two weeks back, I expect the livewire quarterback to continue posting numbers as a dual-threat quarterback, as he has two rushing touchdowns and a passing TD over his two games. He gets a great matchup this week, with the Rams pass defence leaving a lot to be desired, allowing the ninth-most yards per attempt, the 11th-highest passer rating, and the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate since week 6. A high upside selection at QB at a nice discount on the top-end guys.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams - $13,910
Williams is straight back into fantasy calculations this week, despite it being his first game since week 6. But there are reasons to be optimistic this week, none more so than Williams’ performance last time he took on the Cardinals, rushing for 158 yards and a touchdown on his way to 25 points. In fact, since their week 6 game against the Rams, the Cardinals have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt, and 14th-highest explosive run rate. Expect Williams to have RB1 numbers on pure volume, with the chance at being the highest scoring running back in this slate of games if he can get into the endzone.
Derrick Henry - $11,460
Henry is a high risk, high reward selection this week. Whilst Henry’s production has fallen off a cliff this season, he gets a fantastic matchup against the Panthers this week. Despite his fantasy scores dipping, his efficiency metrics remain elite, as he ranks ninth in explosive run rate, 14th in yards after contact per attempt, and 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Meanwhile, the Panthers have allowed the fifth-most rushing touchdowns, ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and tenth-highest rate of missed tackles per attempt. The game script should be in Henry’s favour, as the Titans are favoured to win here.
Jaylen Warren - $10,580
Jaylen Warren continues to show that he should be getting more use in this Steelers offense, but even if his usage doesn’t increase to the degree it should, he is still a solid RB2 for you this week. Amazingly, Warren ranks first in the entire league in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. This week, he gets a Bengals run defence that has been horrible since week 6, allowing the tenth-highest explosive run rate, the third most missed tackles per attempt, and the highest yards per carry to zone runs, of which Warren and the Steelers run at over 56%.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs - $15,840
Diggs has struggled the past couple of weeks, averaging only 6.3 targets per game over his past 3. This is well down on his season average prior to those three games (11.25), and you’ve got to believe the Bills will look to feed Diggs this week, with murmurs again starting that Diggs is not happy. Diggs, and Josh Allen, get a prosperous matchup this week against the Eagles, who have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback in single-high coverage, something they will no doubt look to deploy against this Bills offense who play a lot of underneath to Dalton Kincaid. This selection is more a stack with Allen, and a sense that Diggs will be fed this week.
DeVonta Smith - $12,140
For some reason, when Dallas Goedert is out for the Eagles, DeVonta Smith’s usage stats go through the roof. Last week, Smith finished with 99 yards against the Chiefs, whilst AJ Brown could only manage a single reception for 8 yards. In that one game without Goedert, Smith managed a 36.4% target share, 64.8% air-yard share, 4.13 yards per route run, and a 37.5% first-read share. Since week 6, the Bills have utilized two-high at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Against this two-high look, all of Smith’s numbers increase. This sets up for another big game for Smith, with the Bills defence banged up and a high total in this game.
Khalil Shakir - $7,240
Shakir is a high upside play this week that you can use as a cheap WR3, or a FLEX option to save some coin. He won’t get you a big score through volume, as he averages just 4 targets per game over the past 5 games (since Knox injury). With Philly deploying a high rate of single-high, Shakir’s numbers should improve, as he ranks third on the team in targets per route run (16%), whilst posting 2.5 yards per route run and 8.55 yards after catch per reception. The Eagles have been smashed by slot receivers since week 6, allowing the second-most receiving yards and 10th-highest points per target in PPR.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride - $9,770
McBride has been a little up and down over the past month, but his downs have still led to solid TE scores. Since week 8 when he took over as TE1 at the Cardinals, McBride has averaged 8.75 targets per game, which would be good enough for third highest in the league amongst tight ends. The Rams have struggled against tight ends, allowing the highest yards per reception, and 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. At home, McBride should eat, and is a nice stack with Kyler Murray.
Cade Otton - $6,130
Otton is a nice cheap option who should score you top 10 tight end numbers this week without a touchdown, with easily top 5 upside if he can get into the endzone. This week, Otton and the Bucs take on a Colts defence that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game, and eighth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. Probably needs a touchdown to make this a good selection, and in a game expected to be relatively high scoring, Otton has a good chance at a TD.
D/ST
Cleveland Browns - $6,180
The Browns are a defensive juggernaut, and in a pick em’ type game that has a total lined at 37, you can confidently take the Browns and expect a solid score. The Browns have the eighth-most sacks of any team this season, whilst ranking 13th in takeaways. The Broncos have allowed the sixth-most sacks this season, so expect to see the likes of Myles Garrett terrorising Russell Wilson all game long in the back field. Averaging 15 points per game as a D/ST unit over the past 3 weeks.
Indianapolis Colts - $5,890
This selection is based purely off form, as the Colts D/ST units have been running amok in their past two games, with scores of 26 and 16. 9 sacks and 5 interceptions (2 x pick 6’s) obviously have propped those numbers up, but the Colts appear to be playing to win right now, and they seem to have a strong connection amongst their defensive and special teams units. Ranking 10th in turnovers created, and 13th in total sacks, expect the Colts to get amongst this Buccaneers offense this week.
Suggested Draftstars Lineup
