Three games remain in the 2022-23 NFL season, with the winner of the two Championship games today set to square off in two weeks time in Arizona for Super Bowl LVII. In this preview of the NFC Championship game, we take a look at the path the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers have taken through the playoffs, handicap the matchup, and provide our best bet for this epic NFC showdown.
A terrific Divisional round last week, going 2-0 for our best bets, pushing us back into profit at 6-6 (+2.5u) for the playoffs.
Remember to check back at our NFL Tips page for updates in the lead up to the Super Bowl!
NFL 2022-23: NFC Conference Championship Preview & Betting Tips
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Monday 7:00am AEDT
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers come into the Divisional Round off the back of successive victories over the Seahawks in the Wild Card Round, and the Cowboys in the Divisional Round. They’ve now won 12 matches in a row, good for the longest streak in the NFL.
In Wild Card week, the 49ers had a bit of a scare in the first half, trailing the Seahawks 17-16 at home, before eventually getting things together offensively and cruising to a 41-23 victory. They had massive contributions from Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and they have arguably the best set of weapons left in the playoffs. Brock Purdy was solid in his playoff debut, going 18-30 for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Last week, they were in a defensive battle with the Cowboys, with both teams struggling to make the most of their opportunities. And whilst the 49ers did win most of the offensive statistical categories, they were helped immensely by the two interceptions thrown by Prescott. Purdy once again defied the odds; however, a number of turnover worthy plays again went unchecked. Can his blessed run continue?
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles had the bye in Wild Card week, and they took advantage of the week of rest, getting themselves healthy before the Divisional Round matchup with the Giants. The Eagles dominated from the outset, running the ball at will, and not giving the Giants anything on offense. Philly led 28-0 at halftime and the game was over, eventually rushing for 268 yards on 44 carries (6.1ypr), whilst allowing only 227 total yards from the Giants.
They get a big step up in class this week however, and it’ll be interesting to see if Jalen Hurts is back to full strength, or if the easy win over the Giants masked his fragility. The Eagles came into the playoffs looking a little like they’d peaked too soon, with losses in 2 of their last 3 games in the regular season. The question now is are they in mid-season form, or still struggling to get it all together.
Match Preview
A first matchup of the season for these two teams, which is something we haven’t seen much of in these playoffs. It’s the matchup we all wanted, with the number 1 team vs the number 2 team in the NFC. The Eagles started the season on fire, winning 8-straight to kick off the season, before a Monday Night Football loss to divisional rivals, the Washington Commanders. They didn’t dwell on their first loss, winning their next 5, before injury struck quarterback Jalen Hurts. They still managed to finish the season with the joint best record in the NFL, and save for a short stretch at the end of the season, were always power ranked as one of the top 3 teams in the NFL.
This week they come up against the best defence in the NFL, and crucially, the best rush defence in the NFL. Whilst the 49ers are also a well above average pass defence, it is their rush defence where they stand apart. Given the Eagles love to run the ball, it really is a matchup of strength on strength. On the flip side, both teams have a slight liability in opposing areas, with the 49ers rushing attack around league average, whilst the Eagles rushing defence is the same.
So where is this game won and lost? I believe the coaching. Most would probably say the quarterback; however I believe Purdy has shown enough to prove to me that he’s not going to be a liability. He has the same experience level as Jalen Hurts does in this big a spot (being zero), so this area of the game cancels one another out. No, the coaching is where I’m calling my shot. 49ers Head Coach Kyle Shanahan has been here before, and he has shown his hand multiple times, going ultra conservative in big games like this, and failing to take the game by the scruff of the neck. I can see it happening again here.
Eagles Head Coach Nick Sirianni on the other hand, despite his carry on, has proven to be aggressive. Whilst we haven’t seen it in this big a spot, I’ve got to believe he keeps playing to win, and I see him taking the Eagles to their first Super Bowl appearance since 2018 in Super Bowl LII.
I make this Eagles -3, which is looking increasingly likely where this game will close, so only a small play on the game handicap as the margins are razor thin and the markets are tight.
For an alternate bet, I also like the Eagles to lead after the first quarter and at half time. Shanahan will no doubt be playing the first half conservatively and playing not to lose. Let’s get it Eagles!
Alternate Bets
1st quarter spread – Philadelphia Eagles (-0.5) - $2.23 @ Unibet (0.5u)
1st half spread – Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) - $1.93 @ Unibet (1u)
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
$1.92 (1.5 units)
