A massive AFC East matchup for Thursday Night Football, in what will be the curtain raiser to potentially the best weekend of football all year. With some massive games throughout the weekend, the NFL playoffs seem closer than ever, and here we have two teams with aspirations of playing in the post-season. The Bills have had the measure of the Patriots of late, with Josh Allen slaying the Patriots in the last 3 matches between these teams that weren’t contested during cyclonic weather.
The Colts lost the turnover battle 2-0 in Monday Night Football, yet still had a chance to send the game to overtime. Unfortunately, Jeff Saturday doesn’t know what a timeout is, sending us to another loss. We now sit at 19-18-1 (+2.42u) for the season during prime time.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Preview & Betting Tips
Gillette Stadium, Friday 12:15pm AEDT
Last Week
The Bills played in a cracking Thanksgiving Day game last week, sneaking by the Lions 28-25 on the back of Josh Allen throwing for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns, whilst also rushing for 78 yards and a touchdown. With his elbow injury surely getting close to being back to 100%, look for Allen to turn it on once again this week against a Patriots team that hasn’t been able to stop him in recent meetings. Unfortunately for the Bills, superstar edge rusher Von Miller injured his knee last week and is likely to miss several weeks.
Meanwhile, the Patriots were on the other end of a one score game on Thanksgiving, after going down 33-26 to the Vikings in Minnesota. There were positives for the Patriots, with their offense looking as good as it has all season between the 20s, however they were unable to finish things off, going 0/3 in the redzone. Unfortunately, their defence was torched by the Vikings, leading to concerns how they will manage to stop Josh Allen if they couldn’t stop Kirk Cousins.
Injury Report
Buffalo Bills
Von Miller (OLB) – OUT
Micah Hyde (SS) – OUT
Christian Benford (CB) – OUT
Jamison Crowder / Marquez Stevenson / Jake Kumerow (WR) – OUT
Tommy Doyle (OT) – OUT
Ike Boettger (OG) – OUT
Dion Dawkins (OT) – QUESTIONABLE
New England Patriots
Christian Barmore (DT) – OUT
Marcus Cannon / Andrew Stueber (OT) – OUT
Ty Montgomery (WR) – OUT
Joejuan Williams (CB) – OUT
Jabrill Peppers (FS) – QUESTIONABLE
Isaiah Wynn / Yodny Cajuste (OT) – QUESTIONABLE
David Andrews (C) – QUESTIONABLE
Jakobi Meyers (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
Damien Harris (RB) – QUESTIONABLE
Match Preview
There’s been some interesting line movement in this game since open, with money seemingly pouring in on the Patriots. In some ways I can understand it, home dog against a Divisional rival, Bill Belichick, the Bills struggling of late, but for this to drop from 5.5 at open to 3.5 now seems excessive. For reference, teams that have closed around the 3 to 4-point dogs to the Bills at home include the Dolphins, Ravens and Chiefs. I’m sorry, but the Patriots do not belong alongside these teams.
New England’s numbers, particularly defensively, do stack up quite well. Their DVOA ratings, particularly against the pass, are top shelf, however their strength of schedule isn’t exactly great. Against some of the better teams in the league, the Patriots have given up points at an alarming rate, and this week against one of, if not the best offense in the league, I can’t see them shutting them down.
I’ve got to believe there must be resistance at some point and money comes in on the Bills, but if the Bills somehow get to -3, upgrade this to a 3-unit play. For now, we will stick to a 2-unit play.
Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
$2.04 (2 Units)
