With no more Thursday night games in season 2022, Round 18 of the AFL season kicks off on Friday night in a classic eight-point match between the Western Bulldogs (10th) and St.Kilda (9th) under the roof at Marvel Stadium. With both sides sitting on the cusp of the top eight, the winner will be back in contention, while the loser might be resigned to a wasted season.
We’re looking forward to a spirited contest, so read on for our Bulldogs vs Saints preview and AFL Round 18 betting tips for Friday night.
Western Bulldogs vs St.Kilda Betting Tips
Marvel Stadium, Friday 15th July, 7:50pm AEST
Western Bulldogs
Injuries: Hayden Crozier, Caleb Daniel, Taylor Duryea, Stefan Martin, Anthony Scott, Mitch Wallis
It’s been a disappointing fortnight for the Bulldogs. Coming up against fellow finals contenders in Brisbane and Sydney, they’ve been well and truly whalloped on both occasions. It’s not only put a dent in their finals aspirations but also their percentage which might be important at the end of the season. If they can’t beat the Saints here, they’ll be two games and percentage outside the top eight, and you’d have to think that will be too much to overcome over the final rounds of the season.
In better news, the Bulldogs will welcome back young gun Bailey Smith from his suspension for a much-needed boost to a midfield that has been struggling to fire recently. Key forward Josh Bruce is also a chance to return from injury after booting 4.5 in the VFL last week. He provides a desperately needed physical presence up forward and will free up Aaron Naughton from the goal square. It might also provide some support for Tim English who was a little timid last week and needs to start asserting his authority in the middle.
A lot of their run will depend on Bailey Dale who was effectively tagged out of the game last week. With injuries to Crozier, Daniel and Duryea, it will be Dale who might be the key to their success.
St.Kilda
Injuries: Jack Bytel, Hunter Clark, Nick Coffield, Jarryn Geary, Dan Hannebery, Jack Hayes, Dougal Howard
The Saints had a great start to the season and looked set for September action, but they have dropped four of their last five to now be sitting outside the eight. They weren’t really close to Freo last week and will need to find another gear against the Bulldogs here.
Daniel McKenzie might find his way back into the side from injury to provide some run through the middle but he’s no match winner and will need to find some support. The Saints rely heavily on Jack Steele and Brad Crouch, who have both been very good, but they will need more from their next line of midfielders to compete with this very talented Bulldogs midfield.
The Saints should have an edge with their twin towers as Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall will need to push Tim English in the middle, while extending the fragile Bulldogs defence while resting forward. Max King is another who will need to find some form and have a big game, with the Bulldogs struggling to contain power forwards all season long.
Similar to the Dogs, the Saints will need to find run from half-back, with Brad Hill and Jack Sinclair crucial to their chances with Hunter Clark out through injury.
Match Prediction
I think the Saints have punched above their weight for much of the season, but are now back to reality in the middle of the pack. By contrast, the Bulldogs were Grand Finalists last season and have largely under-performed for most of 2022. If they can start to string it together at the right time of the year, then who knows what’s possible. They have to get to the finals first, and that starts with a win in a do-or-die clash here.
If the Dogs defence can help keep King, Membrey and Marshall/Ryder in check, then they have the runners to win the midfield battle and put too much pressure on the Saints.
Western Bulldogs - 9.5
$2.00 (2.5 units)
Prop Bets
Both the Saints and the Dogs are pretty loose in their own forward half in terms of conceding cheap possession to opposition defenders. Their two key playmakers are Bailey Dale and Jack Sinclair, and as long as they don’t get a tag, then they should both be able to accumulate freely. We could take the disposals markets, but there’s a bit more value in the Fantasy markets.
Bailey Dale + Jack Sinclair 90+ AFL Fantasy Points - $2.01 at Ladbrokes
The Bulldogs have struggled all season to contain opposition key forwards. Their defence is poor and they just don’t have anyone who can stop these power forwards once they get going. One option for the Saints is Max King, who is the obvious main target, but he has been struggling for form a little recently and there’s not so much value in his betting price. Rowan Marshall or Paddy Ryder to drift forward and hit the scoreboard is another option. However instead, we’re going to go with Tim Membrey who is difficult to stop at the best of times. He’ll get up the ground but if he works back towards the goals then he should be able to hit the scoreboard. It’s a favourable match up, and Membrey has kicked at least 2 goals in a match on eight occasions this season.
Tim Membrey 2+ Goals - $1.85 at Ladbrokes
