A shortened Round 14 is in the books with just the five games played to complete the round. While a few teams were enjoying a bye, contenders Marcus Bontempelli and Ollie Wines were busy picking up more Brownlow votes to climb the leaderboard. Wines, in particular, has been on fire and now leads our Brownlow Medal leaderboard after 14 rounds. The other big performance of the round was from Jake Stringer. He may not be a Brownlow contender, but his performance on Sunday was one of the best by an individual this season.
Check out our analysis and 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 14 below!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 14
Geelong 12.11.83 def Western Bulldogs 11.12.78
Gary Rohan was the hero with a goal after the siren to pinch a famous victory for the Cats. It was a slippery, scrappy contest, but the intensity and final result ended up as a classic. Tom Stewart’s intercepting marks in the backline was superb in the conditions as he ended with 27 disposals (15 intercepted) and 13 marks to be the Cats’ best. Joel Selwood (29 disposals, 6 tackles, 10 clearances, 1 goal) worked into the game while Sam Menegola (27 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) was also good. Marcus Bontempelli (30 disposals, 7 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) was brilliant and should be in the votes, while Tom Liberatore (30 disposals, 8 tackles, 11 clearances, 1 goal) thrived in the conditions.
Tom Stewart - 3
Marcus Bontempelli - 1.5
Tom Liberatore - 1.5
Gold Coast 4.7.31 def by Port Adelaide 12.9.81
The Power were far too good for an insipid Suns outfit who are going to struggle to get through the rest of this season. We hope you jumped on our tip for Ollie Wines a few weeks ago as he’s shortened right up to around $8.00 and 3rd/4th favourite in most Brownlow markets after his massive 43 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles and 5 clearances in a clear best-on-ground performance. Steven Motlop (26 disposals, 9 marks, 2 goals) was brilliant, Karl Amon (26 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) was busy, while Aliir Aliir (20 disposals, 6 marks) was a rock in defence. Touk Miller (31 disposals, 9 tackles, 7 clearances) was best for the Suns.
Ollie Wines - 3
Steven Motlop - 2
Aliir Aliir - 0.5
Karl Amon - 0.5
North Melbourne 6.9.45 def by Brisbane 9.14.68
It wasn’t the prettiest game, but the Lions got the job done against the Kangaroos in Hobart. Jarryd Lyons enjoyed the conditions with 36 disposals, 6 marks and 12 tackles. Zac Bailey (29 disposals, 1 goal), Lachie Neale (30 disposals, 10 tackles, 10 clearances, 1 goal) and Hugh McLuggage (31 disposals, 5 tackles, 6 clearances) are all a chance to poll votes. Jy Simpkin (31 disposals, 9 clearances) and Ben Cunnington (25 disposals, 10 tackles, 6 clearances) were again the best for the Roos.
Jarryd Lyons - 3
Zac Bailey - 1.5
Lachie Neale - 1.5
GWS Giants 16.6.102 def Carlton 9.12.66
Carlton fought back a few times, but their pressure was lacking throughout, as the Giants got the win pretty comfortably in the end. Toby Greene (20 disposals, 8 marks, 4 goals) and Jeremy Finlayson (13 disposals, 10 marks, 5 goals) stood out as they smashed the scoreboard, while the midfield were typically very busy. Tim Taranto (24 disposals, 11 marks, 12 tackles, 7 clearances), Jacob Hopper (27 disposals, 11 clearances, 1 goal) and Lachie Whitfield (26 disposals, 10 marks) won plenty of ball, while Matt de Boer (16 disposals, 12 tackles) did a great job stopping Sam Walsh. No votes for the Blues here!
Toby Greene - 3
Jeremy Finlayson - 2
Jacob Hopper - 0.5
Matt de Boer - 0.5
Hawthorn 10.13.73 def by Essendon 13.8.86
It was a full house in Launceston and they were entertained by a close contest as the Bombers did enough to get the points and remain in finals contention. Tasmania was treated to the full "package" from Jake Stringer who delivered a career-best 29 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances and 4 goals in a monumental effort. Zach Merrett (27 disposals) and Nick Hind (25 disposals, 1 goal) were next best for the Bombers. Tom Mitchell (36 disposals, 8 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) was brilliant for the Hawks, with Jaegar O’Meara (31 disposals, 6 marks, 6 clearances) and Jarman Impey (25 disposals, 10 marks) also effective.
Jake Stringer - 3
Tom Mitchell - 2
Nick Hind - 0.5
Jaegar O’Meara - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
