The bye rounds continued over the long Queen's Birthday weekend with just the six games across five days for Round 13. Some of the Brownlow contenders weren't in action, but Port Adelaide's Ollie Wines may pick up a vote or two in their loss to Geelong to climb up very close to the top of the leaderboard. Tom Mitchell, Rory Laird and Josh Kelly are the others in our top 20 that are a chance to poll well in Round 13 action.
Check out our analysis and 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 13 below!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 13
Port Adelaide 14.7.91 def by Geelong 17.10.112
A great game to kick off the round saw the momentum bounce back and forth before the Cats’ key forwards gained control late in the final quarter to claim an important win. Jeremy Cameron was the most influential player on the ground with 5 goals from 19 disposals and 5 marks, while Tom Hawkins (4 goals, 14 disposals, 8 marks) and Gary Rohan (3 goals, 18 disposals, 10 marks) were also dangerous. The Port midfield won the inside battle with Ollie Wines (29 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal) and Travis Boak (27 disposals, 8 tackles, 6 clearances) working hard, while Connor Rozee was electric with 5 goals from his 16 disposals.
Jeremy Cameron - 3
Ollie Wines - 2
Connor Rozee - 1
Sydney 7.9.51 def by Hawthorn 14.5.89
A woeful night for the Swans in a bad loss to the lowly Hawks. The Swans forwards just failed to fire at all as Tom Mitchell (34 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal) led the way for the Hawks against his old side. Jonathan Ceglar (35 hitouts, 20 disposals, 11 clearances, 1 goal) was a huge inclusion while Changkuoth Jiath (28 disposals) was good across half-back. Callum Mills (33 disposals, 7 tackles, 5 clearances) tried hard for the Swans while Dane Rampe (29 disposals, 9 marks) was kept busy in defence.
Tom Mitchell - 3
Jonathan Ceglar - 2
Callum Mills - 0.5
Dane Rampe - 0.5
Fremantle 11.10.76 def Gold Coast 6.13.49
The Dockers were too strong for the Suns in a game that didn’t reach any great highs. A tricky game for votes with James Aish (31 disposals, 7 marks), Blake Acres (27 disposals, 8 marks), Andrew Brayshaw (29 disposals, 9 marks, 6 clearances) and Luke Ryan (29 disposals, 10 marks) among the best for the Dockers. Touk Miller (31 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) played a bit of a lone hand for the Suns.
James Aish - 3
Blake Acres - 1
Andrew Brayshaw - 1
Touk Miller - 1
St.Kilda 8.12.60 def by Adelaide 9.12.66
The Crows didn’t score at all in the first quarter and the Saints led for every minute of the match, except for the final one, as the Crows pinched a miraculous win in slippery conditions in Cairns. The midfield slugged it out all night and the Brownlow votes could really go any direction. For the victors Rory Laird (33 disposals, 8 tackles, 10 clearances), Ben Keays (32 disposals, 10 tackles, 5 clearances) and Paul Seedsman (31 disposals, 6 tackles) were the standouts. For the Saints, Jack Steele (34 disposals, 12 tackles, 9 clearances) and Brad Crouch (36 disposals, 6 tackles, 5 clearances) were relentless. Tom Highmore (22 disposals, 13 marks) was able to provide some marking power while Jack Higgins (24 disposals, 7 marks) was lively. Very difficult game for votes.
Rory Laird - 3
Jack Steele - 1
Ben Keays - 1
Brad Crouch - 1
North Melbourne 14.10.94 drew with GWS Giants 14.10.94
The first draw of the season! Both teams will be disappointed with this one. The Roos blew a 28-point lead at three-quarter time, while the Giants had a chance to pinch it late in a game that could cost them a finals spot. The three votes were easily with Josh Kelly who was sublime with 39 disposals, 6 tackles, 5 clearances and 2 goals in a superb performance. Jy Simpkin (31 disposals, 8 tackles, 7 clearances), Ben Cunnington (25 disposals, 5 tackles, 9 clearances, 2 goals) and Aaron Hall (35 disposals, 6 marks) should fight it out for the minor votes.
Josh Kelly - 3
Jy Simpkin - 1
Ben Cunnington - 1
Aaron Hall - 1
West Coast 13.7.85 def Richmond 12.9.81
A classic game in the west saw the Eagles fight back bravely in the final quarter to roll the reigning premiers in a game that will have huge implications for finals positions. Jack Redden (32 disposals, 12 marks, 7 clearances) was best in the middle, with Nic Naitanui (20 disposals, 31 hitouts, 1 goal) providing great service. Shannon Hurn (25 disposals, 10 marks) was a rock in defence while Josh Kennedy (15 disposals, 7 marks, 4 goals) was the match winner with a late goal. Kane Lambert (27 disposals, 2 goals) and Nick Vlastuin (23 disposals, 9 marks) were best for the Tigers.
Jack Redden - 2
Nic Naitanui - 2
Josh Kennedy - 1
Nick Vlastuin - 1
Melbourne 9.9.63 def by Collingwood 11.14.80
The high pressure game of the Pies was too much for the Dees as Bucks got a fitting send off in a major upset result. Skipper Scott Pendlebury won the Neale Daniher trophy for his game of 31 disposals, 5 clearances and a goal but several other Pies also impressed. Brayden Maynard (32 disposals, 13 marks) was superb while Jordan De Goey (32 disposals, 6 clearances) was unstoppable in the middle. Christian Salem (26 disposals, 7 marks) and Christian Petracca (27 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) were best for Melbourne.
Scott Pendlebury - 3
Brayden Maynard - 1.5
Jordan De Goey - 1.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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