A big game, with massive playoff ramifications kicks things off in Week 15 of the NFL season, as the San Francisco 49ers host the LA Rams on Thursday Night Football. With both teams coming off huge week 14 wins, confidence levels will be high, as the two NFC West rivals meet for the second time this season. What a way to kick things off!
NFL Week 15 Betting Tips
San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams
Levi’s Stadium, Friday 13th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The 49ers bounced back to the win column last week, with a dominant 38-13 home victory over the Chicago Bears. It was their first win in close to a month, and a win that kept them in the playoff hunt in the NFC. The 49ers offense was sensational, gaining 452 total yards at 7.4 yards per play, whilst they managed 325 yards passing at 11.9 yards per play. Their defence also looked much improved, as they held the Bears offense to under 5 total yards in the first half. Insane numbers. Brock Purdy was back to his efficient best, going 20/25 for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns, whilst George Kittle dominated the middle of the field, grabbing 6 receptions for 151 yards. Are they back, or was it just the Bears?
If the 49ers were impressive in week 14, the Rams were extraordinary in week 14. Hosting one of the hottest teams in the NFL in the Buffalo Bills, the Rams came into the game as home underdogs, but from the outset you wouldn’t have known it. Matthew Stafford had his best game of the season, going 23/30 for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns. But it was his play in the highest leverage situations that was the most impressive, as he converted 3rd downs at a 73.3% clip, and went 5 of 6 in the redzone. Puka Nacua showed again why he is one of the best in the league, hauling in 12 receptions for 162 yards, including the game winning touchdown.
Match Preview
The Rams and 49ers went head-to-head in week 3 in LA, with the 49ers going off as massive 6-point road favourites. The 49ers shot out of the gate to lead 14-0 after the first quarter, but the Rams wouldn’t go away, eventually coming from behind in the fourth quarter to get the win, 27-24. The 49ers were dominant in the box score and would have come away from the game highly disappointed in the loss.
What a difference three months makes, as the market has cooled heavily on the 49ers, opening 3-point favourites on the look ahead line at home, however dropped to 2-point favourites after the week 14 games concluded. This number went down to 49ers -1, before money has come back in on the 49ers, who currently sit around a 2/2.5-point favourite. This is a massive downgrade for the 49ers, who were rated as 7 points better than the Rams in week 3, to now where they are rated about equally. I’ve struggled all year rating the Rams, but I make the 49ers over a 3-point favourite in this matchup, so see terrific value in the 49ers covering a field goal or less.
Looking at the total, and it opened at 47 on the lookahead, before opening a point and a half higher at 48.5. The overs love didn’t stop there, as it has been bet up to 49, which is obviously the right move in this high leverage matchup. These games have been heavy overs in the past few seasons, as both teams have no time to be running the football and playing field position. They are both at the point of being in must-win situations, and that lends itself to both offenses giving it their all. Whilst my total is slightly lower, I would only bet the over in this situation between these two offenses.
Looking at props, and I’ll be on George Kittle to hit his overs in this game. At home this season, Kittle has averaged 96 yards per game, and has gone over his receiving yards total in all five of those games. He missed the last matchup with the Rams, and as such the Rams didn’t get a chance to plan for him this season and see how that plan went. Kittle is a legitimate ladders opportunity, and I would be happy betting him to 120+ yards at odds of 11/1. But for this, we will just take the over 56.5.
Prop Bet
George Kittle (over) 56.5 receiving yards - $1.90 at Dabble (1.5u)
49ers -2.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
