Another Thursday Night Football game, another special contest in store, as the lead for the NFC East goes on the line with the Eagles hosting the Commanders. With the Commanders seemingly coming back to Earth of late, and the Eagles in a rich vein of form, will the home team continue its march towards the NFC East title, or can the upstart Commanders and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels get their mojo back? Looking forward to this one!
NFL Week 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders
Lincoln Financial Field, Friday 15th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Eagles come into week 11 on the back off their fifth straight victory last weekend, as they destroyed their NFC East rivals the Dallas Cowboys on the road, winning at a canter 34-6. The Eagles held the Cowboys to just 146 total yards at 2.6 yards per play, in what was one of the poorest offensive performances of any team this season. The Eagles were led by A.J. Brown who had 5 catches for 109 yards, but the offense wasn’t required to do a great deal in the win, in what was more about the poor performance by the Cowboys than anything great about the Eagles.
The Commanders, meanwhile, suffered their first loss since week 6 to the Ravens, as they went down 28-27 to the Steelers at home in a crazy game of football. It was a loss that was a few weeks in the making, as the Commanders struggled by the Giants and Bears the previous two weeks. Jayden Daniels has slowed down from his historic early season pace, finishing last week with just a 50% completion percentage, throwing for 202 yards and 0 touchdowns, whilst also only rushing for 5 yards. Terry McLaurin was the offense, hauling in 5 passes for 113 yards. If Daniels can’t get back to his early season form, expect more struggles for this Commanders offense, which has a serious lack of weapons.
Injury Report
Philadelphia Eagles
James Bradberry (CB) – OUT
Britain Covey (WR) – OUT
Byron Young (DT) – OUT
Le’Raven Clark (OT) – OUT
Washington Commanders
Norell Pollard / Jonathan Allen (DT) – OUT
Javontae Jean-Baptiste (DE) – OUT
Colson Yankoff (TE) – OUT
Jamison Crowder (WR) – OUT
Austin Seibert (K) – OUT
Marshon Lattimore (CB) – OUT
Nick Bellore (LB) – OUT
Cornelius Lucas / Brandon Coleman (OT) – Questionable
Andrew Wylie (OG) – Questionable
Match Preview
The Eagles won both matchups between the two NFC East rivals last season, but they were both one score games and far closer than many would have expected, given how poor the Commanders were last season. In week 4, the Commanders visited the Eagles at the Linc as 8.5-point underdogs, keeping it tight throughout the game, which ended up going to overtime. The Eagles managed to get out with a 3-point win, but it was far closer than they would have wanted. The teams met again in week 8 in Washington, with the Eagles closing 7-point road favourites. In another tight matchup that was a real track meet, both quarterbacks threw four touchdowns as the Eagles snuck home 38-31 with 35 points scored in total in the fourth quarter.
Moving forward to this week, and the Eagles opened 3.5-point favourites, before re-opening at the same number after last weekend’s games. Commanders money quickly entered the market, pushing this down to the key number of 3, however it has since been pushed back up to 3.5/4, with a cluster injury concern for the Commanders on the offensive line. I make the Eagles 3.5-point favourites at home in prime time, and don’t see a great deal of value here. The Eagles at -3 was a bet, but now that it’s pushing up towards 4, I don’t like it as much.
Moving on to the total, and this opened at 49.5 and re-opened at the same number. I loved the under at this number, and it has been bet down slightly to 48.5/48 at most books. It’s still on the right side of the key total of 47, so would make the under a play here. The overs have hit on Thursday Night Football this year at a higher percentage than usual, so I’ll keep the outlay lower here, but I think the Eagles get out to an early lead here and run their usual ploy of bleeding the clock through the run game. The Commanders offense might struggle with the injuries to the offensive line and some regression from Daniels, and unless this turns into a shootout the under should hit. If both teams appear to be moving the ball well early, I’ll look for a live over, but the under is the play here before a pass is thrown.
Looking at props, and I’ll take AJ Brown to go over his receiving yard total. In every game he has remained healthy throughout the contest this season, he has gone over his total, and against a struggling Commanders’ secondary I’ll trust him to do it again this week.
Prop Bet: AJ Brown (over) 80.5 receiving yards - $1.90 at Dabble
Under 49.5 total points
$1.87 (1.5 Units)
