A replay of Super Bowl LV, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Missouri to take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The Bucs will be desperate to keep their hopes of an NFC South title alive and need every win after going down last week to the Falcons. The Chiefs will aim to keep their perfect record alive, as they look to become the first team to ever go 17-0. We bring you our full preview and tips for the game below!
NFL Week 9 Preview & Betting Tips
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Tuesday 5th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Chiefs took on the Raiders last week in an AFC West clash, and despite a rather narrow 27-20 final score, the Chiefs were never in danger of losing the game. Patrick Mahomes had one of his better statistical games of the season, throwing for 262 yards and 2 touchdowns, however he once again threw an interception, with his streak of at least one pick thrown in every game this season continuing. The Chiefs were able to get to QB Garnder Minshew, hitting the Raiders quarterback 8 times throughout the game.
Meanwhile, the Bucs were also involved in a Divisional matchup last week, as they hosted the NFC South leading Atlanta Falcons, and once again whilst the score showed a tight game (31-26 Falcons), Atlanta were in control for the most part. With the losses of WR1 (Evans) and WR2 (Godwin), it was anticipated that the Bucs may throw the ball less in this game, but gunslinger Baker Mayfield didn’t get the memo, as he threw the ball 50 times for 37 completions, 330 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 picks. This is a high variance offense, and really fun to watch, but it seems as though without their two main targets, Baker has to get a little riskier with his passing, which could prove detrimental this week against one of the best defences in the NFL.
Injury Report
Kansas City Chiefs
Nazeeh Johnson (SAF) – OUT
Jared Wiley / Jody Fortson (TE) – OUT
JuJu Smith-Schuster / Skyy Moore (WR) – OUT
Michael Danna / Charles Omenihu (DE) – OUT
Isiah Pacheco (RB) – OUT
Jaylen Watson (CB) – OUT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Greg Gaines (DT) – OUT
Chris Godwin / Mike Evans (WR) – OUT
Bryce Hall (CB) – OUT
Jamal Dean (DB) – OUT
Bucky Irving (RB) – Questionable
Sterling Shepherd / Jalen McMillan (WR) – Questionable
Antoine Winfield Jr. (SAF) – Questionable
Match Preview
The Chiefs and Bucs last met in week 4 of the 2022 NFL season, with Mahomes and the Chiefs travelling to Florida to take on the Bucs. Tom Brady tried his best, throwing the ball 52 times for 384 yards and 3 touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough, as Mahomes and the Chiefs exacted their revenge for the Super Bowl loss, winning 41-31. These teams are vastly different from two seasons ago, and as such there is nothing to be taken from this result.
The Chiefs opened 9-point favourites on the lookahead for this game, before re-opening at the same number. There has been no movement on this number all week, which goes to show the market is confident of where these teams are and how they are rated. I believe I’m slightly high on the Chiefs in my power ratings, given I make the Chiefs a 10.5-point favourite for the game on my numbers. The Bucs are just so high variance though, that it’s easy to make this closer to 9, and an alternate spread for the Chiefs could be the way to play this as there’s a chance Mayfield throws for 4 picks and the Chiefs win 31-3. The Chiefs have been terrific against the spread this season, and I would lean Chiefs -9, but I prefer the total in this game.
Looking at the total, it opened 44 on the lookahead, before re-opening at 44.5. I was happy to take the over early in the week, however it has only been bumped up slightly to 45.5. I make a fair total north of 47, which is a key total, and love the over here. The Bucs have been a dead over team over the past 5 weeks, as they consistently put together over 800 yards of total offenses between the two teams over that time period. 800 yards is generally good for about 53 expected points in a game, indicating I have no concern that the Bucs will push this game towards the over. And whilst the Chiefs have been more of an under team, they showed last week that their offense may be getting into the swing of things. In a Prime Time matchup, I’d expect Mahomes and the Champions will want to show out a little more than usual. Give me the over here.
Looking at a prop bet, and I’m looking towards the quarterbacks in this game. As mentioned earlier, Mahomes has continued making mistakes, throwing for at least one interception per game. Both these defences have 5 picks on the season, which is around league average, but they should both have chances at ball hawking in this game. I’ll split my staking here and go with Mahomes to throw a pick, and Mayfield to throw two or more picks in the game.
Prop Bets
Baker Mayfield (2+) interceptions - $4.20 at Bet365 (0.5u)
Patrick Mahomes (1+) interceptions - $2.08 at Unibet (1u)
Over 45.5 points
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
