AFL Round 14 Preview & Betting Tips
Carlton vs Gold Coast
Sunday 1:10pm AEST, June 18th, MCG
Six straight losses sees Carlton sitting in the bottom four in what has been a nightmare season for the Blues. The pressure is mounting on Michael Voss, who simply cannot afford another loss and that impact has been felt at selection. Carlton have dropped Jack Silvagni, Lewis Young, Ed Curnow, Paddy Dow and Jesse Motlop, with Nic Newman, Marc Pittonet, David Cuningham and Lachie Fogarty the inclusions.
Gold Coast return from their bye with Mac Andrew, making his way back into the side after a club imposed suspension. Jy Farrar and Bodhi Uwland are the only omissions from the 23 that defeated Adelaide in Round 11.
Gold Coast entered the bye in excellent form winning three of their last four games, including consecutive wins over the Bulldogs and Crows. The Suns get a rare opportunity to play at the home of football, in what will be their only game at the MCG this season.
It was a similar story for Carlton last week, dominating many key stats, but failing to have any genuine impact. The Blues were +20 for disposals, +17 in contested possessions, +15 for inside 50’s and had more scoring shots than Essendon. However Carlton were terrible in the front half by disposal and at goal, kicking 6.16.
Despite the stat sheet reading a dominant performance, outside of a strong second quarter, the Blues were completely outplayed by the Bombers. Carlton’s biggest concern however may be their defensive effort, laying just 33 tackles last week.
The Suns midfield has been excellent at the coalface this season ranking second in the competition for clearances, however they haven’t been able to turn their clearance dominance into winning the territory battle, ranking sixteenth in the AFL for inside 50’s.
Carlton have struggled to score across the last six weeks, averaging 56 points per game in their winless run. The Blues rank sixteenth in the league for points for across the entirety of the season, and have failed to score more than 59 points in their last five games.
On form the Suns should win this game, however given their lack of experience at the MCG means the total points market is where we’ll be going in this game. The total points in Carlton’s last five games have been under 142 points, and with the way the Blues are playing forward of centre, it’s difficult to see them turning this into a high scoring encounter.
Total Points Under 159.5
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Adam Cerra 30+ Disposals: Despite Carlton’s struggles this season, Adam Cerra has stood tall. Cerra has averaged 27 disposals per game this season, and has reached the 30 disposal mark in six of his last eight games.
Noah Anderson 25+ Disposals: Noah Anderson has been excellent in 2023 in the absence of Touk Miller, averaging 27 disposals per game. Anderson has recorded at least 25 disposals in eight of his last nine games, and picked up 35 disposals the last time he played the Blues.
Ben King 2+ Goals: Ben King has bounced back in impressive fashion after missing the entirety of 2022 through a knee injury. King has kicked 30 goals to sit thirteenth in the Coleman Medal race, and has kicked 2+ goals in eight consecutive matches.
Same Game Multi Odds: $4.33
