Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Bendigo on Wednesday, September 2nd.
The first Melbourne Wednesday meeting of Spring is loaded with quality throughout. It's a metro meeting at Bendigo for a change, where the track is rated a good 4 and the rail is out 4 metres.
Trent Crebbin has previewed every race on the card below!
Bendigo Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 2nd
Best Bet: Race 2 - (5) Kentucky Tornado
Best Value: Race 8 - (8) Ears The Barman
Cracking race to kick things off. I desperately wanted to be with (1) Ain’tnodeeldun here because despite never having run a place in three career runs, I think he’s a very good horse, one of the top seeds for the Vic Derby. Here at 1300m, drawn wide they surely snick and just use it as a barrier trial. He could still be too good; his form close behind Flying Award would still go close, but I’ll look for something better suited here. (12) Meltdown ran very well on debut, coming home in some strong sectionals for the day after being restrained from a wide barrier. From gate 2 I think he’s got the early speed to be midfield or better, which should give him a decent head start on Ain’tnodeeldun and (5) Indictment, who is in a similar boat. (3) Embolism is a Shamus Award colt on debut for Olly/O’Brien, drawn nicely on paper. He’s an obvious threat off the back off a good jump out. (7) Kazuhiko is a very expensive Deep Impact colt who was solid on debut behind Extra Time in Adelaide. He’s had a break and come straight to Melbourne but is another one that could go back from the gate which might make it tough.
Really tough staying race. I’d be ready to declare (5) Kentucky Tornado here, if it wasn’t for the race at The Valley last start. I was keen on her peaking there, but she obviously had no hope on the swamp and was eased out of it. If you ignore that run and go off her previous form, she looks clearly the one to beat. Two starts back at 2000m she was only 2.3L off Cadre Du Noir, who absolutely demolished a similar field to what we see here. Trusting Waller that Kentucky Tornado has pulled up okay and with 57kg and Willo aboard she’s going to take a stack of beating, even from the outside barrier and back in the field. She might get out a touch in the market based on the map too. Very little between (1) Light Pillar and (3) Protection Money. The latter gets John Allen replacing Lafferty, so the relative weight increase is negated. Out of them it just comes down to the better run, perhaps the Maher/Eustace topweight gets an easier time of it from the inside. Don’t think anything else can win on a good track, so happy to play Kentucky Tornado late and hope for better than $3.
(5) Kentucky Tornado
$2.60
Another very tough early season 3yo race. (6) Tydeus was far too good on his home track Warnambool on debut, sharing the lead and racing away to win eased down. Comes onto a good track here in a harder race but he could measure up. (3) Toyetic is a good horse and should’ve won on debut before getting the job done and overhauling Yulong Island last start. That was 8 weeks ago, and he does map worse than midfield with Lane aboard which is a query. (1) Saltpeter carries top weight with Olly aboard. He’s won his last 2 races, the last at Caulfield and whilst it might be a stronger grade of race, some of those 2yo/3yo handicaps aren’t necessarily as strong as some coming off maiden wins. You can take a clear line through Yulong Island- Toyetic started $1.90 against that horse whilst Saltpeter started $9.5 (admittedly winning by a far greater margin). (5) Snapper is an interesting one, coming over from New Zealand as a maiden from 3 starts. He has run well behind some handy 2yo’s including Cool Aza Beel who would probably be favourite in this race. Zahra booked first up perhaps shows intent too. Not a race I’m interested in from a betting perspective with too many unknowns. Tydeus looked good on debut and could cross to the front so I’ll lean his way.
I loved the first up win of (11) Namibia. She settled near last at Geelong but put her rivals away with ease, running the best last 600/400/200m of the meeting. The form out of that race is good with Free Thrills & China Affair winning, and Kingstar Amber running a nose 2nd to High Risk at their next starts. Gets in on the minimum for Olly and if she’s progressed from that she’ll be hard to beat. The jockey/trainer combo likely keeps her firm in the market, but I do hope we’ll get a better price due to the map. She’s a good in play betting proposition. The horse to beat is (7) Ocular. He took on some handy races last prep, only beaten 1.45L first up at The Valley behind Overkill. From barrier 1 he’ll probably be leader’s back and with any luck looks hard to beat. Very keen to be against (10 Fresh who I don’t think has come up as a 3yo. I know she’s only had the one run this prep in the Quezette but I’m calling it early and won’t be backing her unless she shows something. (6) Born A Warrior started $1.50 first up and ran 2nd after taking on a couple of good races the prep before. This is harder again so I’m against him despite the very short SP last start. I’m pretty confident one of Ocular or Namibia wins, so I’ll play both at around even money dutched odds.
Also backing: (11) Namibia $6.00
The favourite has been scratched here which leaves it wide open. (9) Early Morning Rise was well supported first up and sat 3 wide no cover on speed, only beaten 1.85L into 3rd and with a big gap back to 4th. She won her maiden 2nd up last prep and wasn’t disgraced in a few handy races after that. (3) Stradari won at Geelong on debut in a solid performance. He jumped well on that occasion but was restrained to midfield. With precious little pace here I wouldn’t be surprised to see them be right on speed. (1) Anirishman does look the likely leader from out wide. He was far too good at Terang on debut, but this is a big step up. The Maher/Eustace stable are absolutely flying. They’re going at 26% for their last 50 runners, which for a stable of their size is insane. They’ve had 4 runners at Bendigo this season for 2 winners at a 440% P.O.T, and Allen has a 31.2% P.O.T. for them this season. The horse has likely improved from its debut, gets a huge jockey switch and looks the sole leader on paper, so at the double figures available I think he’s worthy of a bet. The other horse that interests me again is (11) Maccabee. I wish this was 1600m for him because to my eye he’s crying out for it, but he draws much better and if they can use him up from the gate he does close well, especially on a firm surface. Happy to have something on him and Anirishman at the odds.
Value: (1) Anirishman $10
I think (10) Serengeti is overs here. He’s a lightly raced gelding who started $5 first up in a BM70, racing 3 wide without cover and finishing 8th, beaten 3.7L. He does tend to improve 2nd up as evidenced by a narrow 2nd in a strong maiden two preps ago, and his maiden win last prep. We only have to go back to his 3yo days when he was beaten 1.6L in a group 2 Stutt Stakes behind The Holy One and Vegas Knight. He was given none first up, should be better suited here, but is double the price with Olly retaining the ride. I’m against (11) Wairere Falls for the first time in a while, although there’s a good chance he’ll be scratched in the morning due to Damien Thornton being injured and the wide barrier. Either way he’ll go back and whilst he’s been crying out for 1600m he might have too much to do. The other horse I think is value here is (12) Sublime Miss, again for the all-conquering Maher/Eustace stable. Her run 1st up was enormous from the tail of the field after drawing wide. She was fresh at 1500m on a heavy track there and last prep ran 2nd (with a massive 5.5L back to 3rd) to the progressive, and terribly now deceased, Dark Alley after leading the field. From barrier 1 she should be just off the pace and based off her first up run she’s clearly come back well. (8) Bacchus is getting closer to a win but if we do get a few showers and the track becomes a soft 5 he’ll struggle as he needs it bone dry. Keen to have back both Serengeti and Sublime Miss at the odds.
Also backing: (12) Sublime Miss $9.00
Great little race, mainly between (11) Mozzie Monster who bolted in on debut by 3.5L at Cranbourne, and (13) Scientific who beat a handy field on debut at Geelong. Scientific got the gun run that day but may struggle to find a nice spot from barrier 12, especially with some leader types drawn nearer the inside. I think it sets up better for Mozzie Monster, although I do have some query about her coming on to a good surface. The Sebring filly looked to move very nicely through the heavy ground (as they often do), but it’s impossible to say she won’t be as effective on a firmer surface until she tries. Kah could ride a broomstick to win at the moment and if she can get cover midfield or just worse with a back to follow, she’ll be very hard to hold out late. (5) Zoupino has been taking on a few solid races and has started right in the market, but she’s never placed from 5 attempts on a good surface. (15) Sunset Eagle would be right in this off her run 3 back, beating Approach Discreet and Diode, who have both won since, but she’s been poor her last two.
(11) Mozzie Monster
$3.50
Keen to see (4) Impi back at the races. The lightly raced 6yo gelding is unbeaten when first up from a spell, including a 2.5L victory over a handy field last prep. He then went on to run 3rd to Harbour Views and O’tauto as a $2.70 shot, beaten 0.7L. Based off his SP profile, the $3.20 average price here looks generous, considering he’s only started above $2.70 once, and it was in that 2.5L win. He’s had a long time off and has changed to the O’Brien stable, but if he’s right he’ll be hard to beat in the last. (11) Challiot is the danger on paper, unbeaten from two starts, including a win over Super Seth, who went far too slowly in the lead. I’m not sure why (8) Ears The Barman is $26 here. He started that price 1st up off some very good jump outs, and the win was quite good. He’s obviously come back very well and whilst this is a harder race, he’s certainly good enough with scope to improve. (6) Ring Of Honour was huge first up from back in the field, getting up on the line. His best is good enough for this, but he will be back near last again and will be looking for 1600m now in a much harder race. If (16) Shotmaker gets a run, he has to be respected off his SP’s this campaign. He went under as the $2.10 favourite last start and did have every chance but gets Zahra here which is a huge tick. Backing Impi to finish and something on Ears The Barman, each way if you like.
Value: (8) Ears The Barman $26
