The Ashes are once again upon us with the “second half” of the ten Ashes matches between Australia and England kicking off this Thursday in Brisbane. The series in England was sensational, and while England were deserving victors, the Australians weren’t far away, and with a little luck, the result could’ve been different.
Now we’re in the backyard of the Aussies and that spells a much different story for the Englishmen. There won’t be pitches tailored to England’s spin advantage. They will be fast and bouncy, which will suit Australia’s pace bowling armoury as well as our floundering batsmen. I think the test will be if the Englishmen can cope with the conditions. If they can, they are a more talented team. If their batsmen struggle or their bowlers bowl too short, then they open themselves up for potential defeat. Whatever happens, it’s going to be a very close series.
Australia have selected a rather unsurprising team, with George Bailey getting the nod for his Test debut on the back of weight of runs in the shorter game. His red-ball form is suspect, so it seems that the easy decision has been made – he had to be picked. The tough decision will be what if he fails the first two Tests?
Australia have turned the Gabba into a fortress in recent times, and you feel that they are better prepared for the 1st Test than the Englishmen who had bad weather hamper their preparations.
This makes it really tough to call. If there was any bad weather, I’d be leaning towards the Draw at $3.25, but there seems to be some value on the “Draw No Bet” option on Betfair with Australia trading recent at $1.94 in this market. That gives us a safety net if the draw comes into play, while I think Australia will have a small edge in the 1st Test that may not last through the whole series.
Series betting
England are favoured to win the series at $2.20 to Australia’s $2.60. There doesn’t seem to be much value there. Perhaps a Drawn series at $5.50 at Centrebet offers you some more value, with a 1-1 or 2-2 result very possible. The better play might be to take the $7.50 at Ladbrokes on an exact 2-2 series result.
The top run scorer markets are led by the captains, but interestingly Ian Bell is a juicy $10.00 at Centrebet after dominating the series in England. He’s played in Australia many times before so he’ll be used to the conditions, and he’s reliable so this price looks value. Also watch out for Kevin Petersen this series at $10.00 at Centrebet. He’s due for a big series and loves the fast pitches in Australia. Interestingly you can currently back at $10.00 at Centrebet and lay off at $9.00 on Betfair. He’s also traded as short at $5.40 in that market.
For the Aussies, it’s really tough to go for any of the value picks as injuries or rotations are likely to come into play. I’m a Shane Watson fan, but you can’t put any money on him when his hamstring is dodgy. All of Warner, Rogers, Smith and Bailey are just as likely to be dropped as score any runs. But boy, do the Aussies need to make some runs!
The leading wicket taker market is a big more interesting. James Anderson is the obvious favourite at $5.50 at Centrebet and he’ll no doubt be right up there once again so might be worth a nibble. His support bowlers in Finn, Tremlett and Rankin might struggle, so there will be even more onus on Anderson to strike. How well the Aussies play Anderson will go a long way to deciding the series. Australian Ryan Harris is on the next line of betting at $6.00. He had a great series in England, but I worry about his workload now after playing a lot of cricket as he has a history of being majorly injury-prone.
Spinner Graeme Swann got us the chocolates in the English series, but he won’t be as effective in Australia, so even at $8.00, I’m happy to discount him.
The man who looks like an interesting wager is Mitchell Johnson. He’s just coming back into the Test side, but his form in the one-day team has been really strong. He looks like he is bowling quick, he is fit and he is likely to play all five Tests. Johnson for most series wickets at $8.00 at Luxbet looks like the value play. This market is already at $7.40 on Betfair so I expect it to shorten for a nice trading opportunity.
Other prop bets
Warner to 25 First vs Rogers in 1st Innings – If Warner doesn’t get out, he gets to 25 before Rogers every single time. Warner has been out under 25 in 50% of his completed innings, but he’s in good form, so we’re happy to take a small amount of value at $2.10 at Centrebet.
Will Any Team be forced to follow on? At Sportsbet they are offering $1.50 for “No” there won’t be a side that follows on during the series. While $1.50 is pretty short, I just can’t see any team following on in this series. I think it will be very, very close, and even if a team falls way behind, the modern trend is to actually bat again rather than even enforce the follow on. This is especially true if there’s some heat about to preserve a bowling attack. I’m happy to take this price for something which I consider about a $1.20 chance.
Enjoy the series, it should be a beauty, and I'm predicting it will go right down to the wire with England to hold onto the urn with a tough and tense 2-2 result!
