Finals football returns to the MCG for the first time since 2019, as Melbourne take on Sydney in the Second Qualifying Final on Friday night!
This will be a cracking contest, and be sure to check out BeforeYouBet’s AFL Tips page for coverage on every game of the 2022 AFL Finals Series.
Melbourne vs Sydney Betting Tips
MCG, Friday 2nd August, 7:50pm (AEST)
Melbourne
Injuries: James Jordan, Andy Moniz-Wakefield, Taj Woewodin
The Demons have a clean bill of health when it comes to the majority of their list, with James Jordan (foot) the only out from their best 22. Christian Salem is set to return after being a late withdrawal against Brisbane due to a groin strain. Tom McDonald got through unscaved in his comeback game in the VFL, and is available for selection. Given Jake Melksham’s form in the last month, it’s difficult to see McDonald getting back in the starting 22 this week.
Melbourne secured a home Qualifying Final with a statement victory over Brisbane in Round 23. The Demons were dominant from start to finish in the 58 point win at the Gabba. The Dees had only passed the 100 point mark in one of their seven games leading into Round 23, but produced a ruthlessly efficient game in attack against the Lions. Melbourne had 8 less inside 50’s than Brisbane, however they scored from 46% of their inside 50’s, en route to kicking 18.7.115.
In their final twelve games of the home & away season, Melbourne played nine games against teams that qualified for the finals. They’ve had a challenging lead into the finals, but playing against quality opposition week after week will hold them in great stead as they aim for back to back premierships.
Sydney
Injuries: Josh Kennedy, Sam Naismith, Colin O’Riordon, Marc Sheather (Injured), Peter Ladhams (Suspension)
Peter Ladhams’ enormous brain fade in the VFL leaves Sydney’s ruck depth in a precarious position, with Tom Hickey their only available ruckman available for the finals series. Tom Papley is expected to be fit to play after a concussion in Round 23, with the Swans fortunate to receive the Friday night fixture which allowed Papley to exit concussion protocols in time to play.
Sydney have won seven straight games to secure a top four position, coming into the finals in some serious form. The Swans last outing was a 14 point win over St Kilda in the final home & away game of the season. It wasn’t an elite Swans performance that we’ve become accustomed to in the second half of this season, however they did what they had too.
The Swans won’t have any fears taking on Melbourne at the MCG. Sydney has won 10 of their past 12 games against the Demons, going 7 from 8 in games against the Dees at the MCG. Sydney picked up a twelve point win when these two sides faced off at the MCG in Round 12.
Match Prediction
This is shaping up as the game of the weekend, with these two sides evenly matched. Melbourne are the number one ranked defence in the competition, while Sydney are the fourth highest scoring team in the AFL. Melbourne’s defensive system is made for finals football, and if they can restrict the Swans ball speed and their ability to use the corridor, it’ll go a long way to winning the game.
Melbourne’s finals performances last season were utterly dominant, with victories by margins of 33, 84 and 74 points. They’ll take plenty of confidence knowing they’ve performed well on the big stage, against a Sydney side featuring plenty of youngsters who haven’t had much September experience. Six of the last seven games between these two sides have been decided by under 35 points. This will be a tight contest given the quality of both these sides under the finals spolight, however the Dees defensive system will strangle Sydney’s ball movement, and take them to the Preliminary Final.
Melbourne 1-39
$2 (2 Units)
Prop Bets
Kozzy Pickett has been red hot in the final six weeks of the season, with goal tallies of 6, 2, 3, 1, 2 and 4. Pickett hasn’t been held goalless since Round 12, and has averaged 2 goals per game in his last ten games and has kicked multiple goals in eleven games this season.
Kysaiah Pickett 2+ Goals, $1.90 with Ladbrokes
Jack Viney had a quiet game in Round 23, but his three games leading into the Brisbane game were outstanding. Viney had 33, 30, and 26 disposal outings between Round 20-22. Viney is a big game player, he averaged 29 disposals in the 2021 Finals Series. Viney has hit the 30+ disposal mark in six of Melbourne’s last eleven games of the season.
Jack Viney 30+ Disposals, $2.10 with Ladbrokes
Lance Franklin still continues to rack up goals even at the ripe old age 35 years of age, kicking 50 goals in 2022. Franklin has kicked 3+ goals in four of his last five games, and has kicked multiple goals in seven of his last eight games. Buddy kicked three goals in the Elimination Final last season, and will relish the opportunity to be back on the big stage at the MCG.
Lance Franklin 3+ Goals, $2.25 with Ladbrokes
