Round 22 was another exciting one as the 2022 AFL season rolls towards the conclusion of the home and away season. Carlton absolutely blew their opportunity to secure a finals spot and now must beat Collingwood this week to be assured of September action. It's down to the Blues and the Bulldogs for eighth spot on the ladder, after the Tigers locked up their finals spot with a thumping of the Hawks.
Who can reach the finals and who will poll Brownlow votes in the final week of the season?
Once again we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 22 Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 22 Overview
Another quiet week for our Brownlow contenders in Round 22. It will be interesting on Brownlow night - it could be all over by this point, or there could be some nervous moments when everyone needs to poll and no one can!
Jeremy Cameron has moved into the Top 5 in our Brownlow leaderboard and could be the best smokey Brownlow bet this season. Callum Mills is likely to poll votes against the Pies, Touk Miller might pinch a vote in a losing effort. The performance of the round was Tom Lynch who bagged eight goals but he's well out of Brownlow contention.
AFL Round 22 Brownlow Votes
St Kilda 9.12.66 def by Brisbane 12.9.81
The Saints are now very unlikely to play finals in season 2022 after Brisbane got the better of them late. Cam Rayner was the match winner with 4 goals from 18 disposals, while Hugh McLuggage (24 disposals, 1 goal) and Daniel Rich (26 disposals) were good four-quarter performers. The Saints had lots of good contributors with Seb Ross (32 disposals, 7 clearances) and Brad Crouch (25 disposals, 8 tackles, 8 clearances) good on the inside, and Marcus Windhager (21 disposals) doing a superb job on Brownlow Medal favourite Lachie Neale. Mason Wood was arguably the best for the Saints with 4 goals from 15 disposals.
Cam Rayner - 3
Mason Wood - 2
Hugh McLuggage - 0.5
Marcus Windhager - 0.5
Western Bulldogs 9.8.62 def GWS Giants 8.9.57
The Bulldogs are still alive…just…and if results go their way in Round 23 then they could enjoy September action once again. Jack Macrae (31 disposals), Bailey Smith (26 disposals, 1 goal), Bailey Dale (26 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) and Caleb Daniel (29 disposals, 7 marks) were good for the Dogs, while Marcus Bontempelli (26 disposals, 6 clearances) was eye-catching as he carried his side home in the last quarter. The Giants tried to control the ball so they padded themselves with plenty of stats. Josh Kelly (35 disposals, 12 marks), Stephen Coniglio (31 disposals, 8 marks), Harry Himmelberg (30 disposals, 12 marks) and Nick Haynes (25 disposals, 15 marks, 1 goal) were among their best. Tricky game for votes.
Marcus Bontempelli - 2
Jack Macrae - 2
Bailey Smith - 1
Josh Kelly - 1
Adelaide 15.13.103 def North Melbourne 10.14.74
The Crows kicked away late to defeat the Roos but they were right in the contest for the first three quarters. Jordan Dawson (33 disposals, 9 marks, 830m gained) was best for the Crows, while Darcy Fogarty kicked 4 goals from 11 disposals and 7 marks. However the best players on the ground came from the losing side. Luke Davies-Uniacke was outstanding with 37 disposals, 11 clearances and 1 goal, while Jy Simpkin also had 30 disposals, 7 tackles and 10 clearances as the Roos were dominant in the middle. A clear top three in this one.
Luke Davies-Uniacke - 3
Jy Simpkin - 2
Jordan Dawson - 1
Gold Coast 9.5.59 def by Geelong 18.11.119
The Cats locked up top spot on the ladder as they buried the Suns. Jeremy Cameron might be the best Brownlow smokey this season as he’ll pick up three Brownlow votes here for his 21 disposals, 8 marks and 3 goals. Brandan Parfitt (28 disposals, 2 goals), Mark Blicavs (27 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goals), Tyson Stengle (15 disposals, 3 goals), Cam Guthrie (30 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) and Max Holmes (20 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goals) were all very good and a chance for votes. Touk Miller (36 disposals, 8 marks) was again the best for the Suns.
Jeremy Cameron - 3
Brandan Parfitt - 2
Touk Miller - 1
Melbourne 11.13.79 def Carlton 10.14.74
We’ve seen some thrilling finishes this season but none were more dramatic than Carlton blowing it against the Demons. The Blues looked like they had finals locked up but two goals in the dying minute to the Dees pinched an amazing victory. Angus Brayshaw was sublime with 38 disposals and 12 clearances, Max Gawn (20 disposals, 7 marks, 33 hitouts, 1 goal) dominated in the ruck and Jake Melksham (4 goals, 15 disposals, 7 marks) was a stand out up forward. Steven May was a rock down back with 25 disposals, including 10 intercepts, 6 marks and 736 metres gained). Sam Docherty was playing an unfamiliar on-ball role and did well with 28 disposals, 10 tackles and 6 clearances to be the Blues best.
Angus Brayshaw - 3
Max Gawn - 1
Jake Melksham - 1
Sam Docherty - 1
Fremantle 9.17.71 def West Coast 7.5.47
It was wet and wild in the West as Freo defeated their cross-town rivals. Sean Darcy won the Glendinning-Allan Medal for his dominant effort in the ruck with 16 disposals, 56 hitouts, 6 tackles and 1 goal. David Mundy (25 disposals, 8 clearances), Blake Acres (29 disposals, 1 goal) and WIll Brodie (28 disposals, 7 clearances) were also important. For the Eagles, Tom Barrass (20 disposals, including 14 intercepts, and 12 marks) blanketed Rory Lobb, with Liam Duggan (30 disposals, 10 marks) and Shannon Hurn (28 disposals, 6 marks) also solid in defence.
Sean Darcy - 3
Tom Barrass - 2
David Mundy - 0.5
Will Brodie - 0.5
Richmond 20.8.128 def Hawthorn 9.13.67
Richmond were far too good for the Hawks as they locked up their finals spot. Tom Lynch was unstoppable kicking 8 goals from 18 disposals and 12 marks before being rested late in the game. Dion Prestia (30 disposals, 11 clearances, 2 goals) and Trent Cotchin (30 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) were busy in the middle and they should lock up the Brownlow votes between them. James Sicily was given a midfield role before being switched back to Lynch late to finish with 30 disposals, 9 marks and a goal for the Hawks.
Tom Lynch - 3
Dion Prestia - 2
Trent Cotchin - 1
Sydney 11.11.77 def Collingwood 7.8.50
Sydney out-classed the Pies to move into the top two and give them a chance at a home finals run. Callum Mills (29 disposals, 9 marks, 7 tackles, 6 clearances), James Rowbottom (24 disposals, 7 marks, 8 tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal) and Luke Parker (26 disposals, 7 marks, 8 tackles, 8 clearances) won the midfield battle, while Robbie Fox (19 disposals, 10 marks) and Isaac Heeney (17 disposals, 6 tackles, 2 goals) were busy at either end of the ground. Scott Pendlebury (26 disposals, 8 clearances) and Josh Daicos (25 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) were best for the Pies.
Callum Mills - 3
James Rowbottom - 2
Isaac Heeney - 1
Essendon 9.8.62 def by Port Adelaide 23.8.146
The lights were out for the Bombers as the Power ran rampant in their biggest win of the season. Zak Butters (25 disposals, 6 clearances, 3 goals), Dan Houston (32 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal), Ollie Wines (31 disposals, 6 tackles), Jeremy Finlayson (25 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goals) and Sam Powell-Pepper (22 disposals, 4 goals) were all outstanding as the Power had winners all over the ground. Jordan Ridley (30 disposals, 9 marks) was best for the Bombers.
Zak Butters - 3
Jeremy Finlayson - 1.5
Sam Powell-Pepper - 1.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
