Round 20 of the 2022 AFL season was another exciting one with thrilling wins for Collingwood, Richmond and Gold Coast, while Melbourne and Geelong confirmed they spot as the premiership favourites with strong wins over finals contenders. Just three rounds of the season remain, and while the hunt for finals is on, the last three rounds could be crucial for the Brownlow chances of several players in contention for the 2022 Brownlow Medal.
Once again we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 20 Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 20 Overview
Round 20 saw stand out performances from Rowan Marshall, Touk Miller and Shai Bolton, while there wasn't a whole lot of votes from our leading Brownlow contenders. Patrick Cripps, Christian Petracca and Connor Rozee may pick up minor votes to close the gap on our leaders, but really, the 2022 Brownlow is anyone's to win right now! Lachie Neale and Andrew Brayshaw are narrow favourites in the Brownlow betting markets, but the 2022 Brownlow Medal count could be one of the most exciting in years, with at least half a dozen genuine Brownlow winning chances!
AFL Round 20 Brownlow Votes
Fremantle 5.9.39 def by Melbourne 12.13.85
Melbourne flicked the switch to remind the competition they are still the reigning premiers with a comprehensive win over Fremantle. Jack Viney was superb in the middle with 33 disposals (16 contested) and 6 tackles. Christian Petracca (30 disposals, 8 tackles, 6 clearances) and Angus Brayshaw (28 disposals, 6 tackles) were also influential in the middle. James Aish was best for Freo as he subdued the dangerous Clayton Oliver while also picking up 28 disposals and 9 tackles for himself. Will Brodie (35 disposals, 7 clearances) was good while Andrew Brayshaw picked up 30 disposals and 8 tackles, but might be tough to squeeze a vote here.
Jack Viney - 3
Christian Petracca - 2
James Aish - 1
Collingwood 13.10.88 def Port Adelaide 12.10.82
The Pies have won ten on the trot to now sit in the top four after coming back from 24 points down to win another close one against a gallant Power outfit. Jordan De Goey (23 disposals, 2 goal) and Josh Daicos (26 disposals, 7 marks) were best for the Pies in an even team performance. Young guns Connor Rozee (35 disposals) and Zak Butters (25 disposals, 2 goals) were best for the Power.
Jordan De Goey - 2.5
Josh Daicos - 2.5
Connor Rozee - 1
Sydney 17.10.112 def GWS Giants 5.9.39
Sydney demolished their cross-town rivals as the Giants are counting down the days until this miserable season is over. Luke Parker won his fifth Brett Kirk Medal for his 34 disposals, including 16 contested, 7 tackles and 6 clearances as best afield, however the Swans had winners all over the ground. Errol Gulden (33 disposals, 12 marks, 2 goals), James Rowbottom (23 disposals, 13 tackles, 1 goal), Sam Reid (18 disposals, 13 hitouts, 3 goals), Isaac Heeney (17 disposals, 3 goals) and Tom Papley (19 disposals, 2 goals) were all excellent.
Luke Parker - 3
Errol Gulden - 2
James Rowbottom - 1
St.Kilda 10.15.75 def Hawthorn 9.9.63
The Saints were up by 44 points, then got a scare from the fast-finishing Hawks, before holding on for a narrow win. Rowan Marshall enjoyed the freedom of solo ruck duties with 30 disposals, 35 hitouts, 9 marks, 7 tackles and 7 clearances in a huge game. Brad Crouch (30 disposals, 11 tackles, 9 clearances, 1 goal) and Jack Steele (31 disposals, 6 tackles) were typically prolific. Tom Mitchell (31 disposals, 9 marks) and Josh Ward (26 disposals, 6 marks) were best four-quarter performers for the Hawks.
Rowan Marshall - 3
Brad Crouch - 2
Jack Steele - 0.5
Tom Mitchell - 0.5
Geelong 14.10.94 def Western Bulldogs 9.12.66
The Dogs started fast but the Cats started to purr after quarter time to land a comfortable win to maintain top spot on the ladder. Patrick Dangerfield (26 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal), Isaac Smith (26 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) and Cam Guthrie (25 disposals, 6 clearances, 2 goals) are likely to contend for the Brownlow votes in this one. Ed Richards (28 disposals, 11 marks), Josh Dunkley (25 disposals, 6 tackles, 2 goals) and Tom Liberatore (28 disposals, 9 clearances) were best for the Bulldogs.
Patrick Dangerfield - 3
Isaac Smith - 2
Cam Guthrie - 1
Adelaide 12.12.84 def Carlton 8.7.55
The Blues put in a shocker, blowing their chances to secure their finals spot, as the Crows collected a strong win. It will be an interesting game for Brownlow votes with some mixed roles for some players. Ben Keays was given a forward negating role on Adam Saad but Keays ended with 21 disposals, 11 score involvements and 3 goals to be one of the Crows best. Brodie Smith (37 disposals, 8 marks and 1019 metres gained), Rory Laird (32 disposals, 12 tackles, 8 clearances) and Taylor Walker (21 disposals, 3 goals) were also excellent. The Blues were carried by Patrick Cripps (41 disposals, 12 clearances) and Sam Walsh (40 disposals, 6 clearances) but it will be interesting to see if that’s enough to pinch a Brownlow vote or two in the losing side.
Ben Keays - 3
Taylor Walker - 1
Patrick Cripps - 1
Brodie Smith - 1
Gold Coast 16.11.107 def West Coast 16.8.104
The Suns held on in a thriller against the Eagles to keep their faint finals hopes alive. This should be an easy one for the three Brownlow votes with Touk Miller sensational with 31 disposals, 10 tackles, 3 goal assists and a huge 15 clearances. Noah Anderson (29 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) was also big in the middle while Mabior Chol finished their work up forward with 5 goals from his 7 disposals and 5 marks. Jack Darling wound back the clock with 6 goals from 14 disposals and 8 marks for the Eagles.
Touk Miller - 3
Noah Anderson - 2
Jack Darling - 1
Richmond 15.14.104 def Brisbane 14.13.97
It was another thriller at the G with the Lions blowing a 42-point advantage in a trademark Tigers comeback as they hunt a finals berth. Shai Bolton was spectacular with 24 disposals, 7 marks and 2 goals, with support from Dion Prestia (26 disposals) and Trent Cotchin (24 disposals, 8 tackles). Tom Lynch (15 disposals, 7 marks, 4 goals) and Noah Cumberland (5 goals, 8 disposals) smashed the scoreboard. Keidean Coleman (30 disposals) and Lachie Neale (31 disposals, 8 clearances) were best for the Lions.
Shai Bolton - 3
Tom Lynch - 1.5
Keidean Coleman - 1.5
Essendon 17.12.114 def North Melbourne 9.12.66
The Bombers were at their best as they easily accounted for the Roos. Quite simply, the Bombers had three absolute match-winners - Jake Stringer burst out of the blocks and ended with 5 goals, from 14 disposals and 7 tackles in his best performance of the year, Mason Redman rebounded superbly with 32 disposals, 10 marks and 1 goal, while Zach Merrett was everywhere with 38 disposals, 10 tackles, 8 clearances and 1 goal. Jy Simpkin (41 disposals, 6 clearances) and Jaidyn Stephenson (34 disposals) were great for the Roos but probably can’t pinch a Brownlow vote here.
Jake Stringer - 2.5
Mason Redman - 2.5
Zach Merrett - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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