Six games over five days in Round 13 for the Queen's Birthday long weekend, culminated in the Dees losing their third match in a row to fall from top spot on he ladder. Some thought that the premiership was already decided, but it seems that the 2022 AFL season is alive and well! Collingwood are now a contender while Fremantle, Carlton and Brisbane continue to win.
Once again we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 13 Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 13 Overview
Our 2022 Brownlow Medal leaders are all likely to pick up votes in Round 13 which should produce an exciting round on Brownlow Medal count night. Andrew Brayshaw was best on ground for Freo as he's rapidly closing in on the Brownlow lead. Lachie Neale might not get the three but he looks good for a couple of votes in Round 13 as he still leads our Brownlow count. Meanwhile Patrick Cripps played his best game in several weeks and might pick up votes as well in Round 13.
The most interesting game will be Melbourne against Collingwood. Clayton Oliver won the award for best on ground but many feel that Mason Cox was the match winner, so it will be interesting to see which way the umpires go!
AFL Round 13 Brownlow Votes
Richmond 11.11.77 def Port Adelaide 10.5.65
Richmond fought off a gallant Port Adelaide to kick off Round 13 on Thursday night. In a tricky game for Brownlow votes, it was Liam Baker (26 disposals, 1 goal) who was most influential late in the game to help the Tigers secure victory. Dion Prestia (25 disposals, 6 clearances) and Trent Cotchin (25 disposals) were also busy. Karl Amon (29 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) was best for the Power with Ryan Burton (25 disposals, 8 marks), Travis Boak (25 disposals, 9 clearances) and Connor Rozee (24 disposals, 1 goal) were also good.
Liam Baker - 3
Karl Amon - 2
Travis Boak - 1
Essendon 7.12.54 def by Carlton 12.8.80
Carlton were too strong for the Bombers on Friday night. Patrick Cripps (28 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal), Sam Walsh (29 disposals) and George Hewett (28 disposals) led the midfield charge, while Sam Docherty was everywhere at half-back with 33 disposals and 9 marks. Harry McKay provided a target up forward with 15 disposals, 8 marks and 3 goals. Dylan Shiel was best for Essendon with 27 disposals, 10 tackles, 8 clearances and a huge goal.
Sam Docherty - 3
Dylan Shiel - 2
Sam Walsh - 0.5
Patrick Cripps - 0.5
Fremantle 14.11.95 def Hawthorn 12.10.82
Fremantle held off a dogged Hawks outfit with Andrew Brayshaw leading the way with 37 disposals, 6 tackles and the match-winning goal. Brayshaw is now narrowing in on the lead on our Brownlow Medal leaderboard. Caleb Serong (33 disposals, 6 clearances) was good, while Hayden Young (31 disposals, 10 marks) and Luke Ryan (31 disposals, 10 marks) were rock solid at half-back. Jaeger O’Meara was the stan out for the Hawks with 30 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances and a goal.
Andrew Brayshaw - 3
Jaegar O’Meara - 2
Hayden Young - 0.5
Caleb Serong - 0.5
Brisbane 10.18.78 def St.Kilda 8.9.57
Brisbane didn’t have it easy but they got the job done against the Saints. Hugh McLuggage (33 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal), Lachie Neale (37 disposals, 7 clearances), Jarryd Lyons (29 disposals, 8 marks) and Jarrod Berry (25 disposals, 8 marks) were all good in the middle of the ground to setup the win. Jack Sinclair (30 disposals) and Brad Crouch (26 disposals, 10 tackles, 1 goal) were best for the Saints.
Hugh McLuggage - 3
Lachie Neale - 2
Jack Sinclair - 1
North Melbourne 7.11.53 def by GWS Giants 15.12.102
North Melbourne’s season goes from bad to worse as the Giants landed an easy win. Harry Himmelberg was immense in his new role at half-back with 37 disposals, 16 marks and a huge goal. Stephen Coniglio wasn’t far behind him with 34 disposals, 6 marks and 3 goals in an influential role in the middle. Isaac Cumming (31 disposals, 10 marks) and Tanner Bruhn (24 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals) were also good. Luke Davies-Uniacke tried hard with 33 disposals, 6 clearances and a goal on another poor day for the Joeys.
Harry Himmelberg - 3
Stephen Coniglio - 2
Tanner Bruhn - 1
Collingwood 12.10.82 def Melbourne 8.8.56
A stirring come-from-behind victory for the Pies in the traditional Queen’s Birthday clash with the Dees who have now lost three on the trot. It’s a tricky game for Brownlow votes with opinions divided. Clayton Oliver won the Neale Daniher Trophy for his 43 disposals, 6 clearances and and 1 goal in a brilliant performance in a losing team, however some feel the match-winner was elsewhere as the Collingwood fans booed a rather awkward post-game presentation. Mason Cox played his best game since the 2018 Preliminary Final with 21 disposals, 8 marks, 9 hitouts and a goal as the Pies assumed control of the air in the second half with Max Gawn struggling. Other contributors for Collingwood included Jack Crisp (29 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal), Nick Daicos (33 disposals) and Brody Mihocek (16 disposals, 10 marks, 4 goals). Jack Viney (33 disposals, 12 tackles, 1 goal) and Angus Brayshaw (29 disposals, 11 marks) were also excellent, as you could easily give Brownlow votes to all seven players mentioned! Very tough!
Clayton Oliver - 2.5
Mason Cox - 2.5
Jack Crisp - 0.5
Nick Daicos - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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