Trading Tips for the Brownlow Medal - Part One: Building Equity
AFL Brownlow night is one of our favourite betting events of the year. It may only happen once a year, but there is value to be found all year round, not just by betting through Australian sportsbooks but also trading through a betting exchange such as Betfair.
The Brownlow betting markets are open all year round so there’s nothing better than finding an early smokie at some value and watching the price come tumbling in, before laying it off to lock in a profit. Trading on Brownlow night is also extremely profitable for the smart punter, so over the next few weeks we’re going to release a couple of articles to help sharpen your pencils when trading on the Brownlow. If you don’t have too much experience with sports trading, then check out our article called ‘how to back and lay bets on Betfair’.
Build equity early in the season
This is a tip for next season. If you have a keen eye for talent, the best time to find value is at the start of the season. Look for players who historically poll well, and young up and coming players who might emerge as new stars.
By backing them early when the price is at its juiciest, you’ll build equity as their price comes in during the season, allowing you to move your equity onto other players who you think can win.
Some examples of players we targeted preseason are Gary Ablett, Joel Selwood, Trent Cochin, Scott Pendlebury and Patrick Dangerfield. Other emerging players we looked included Dane Beams, Tom Liberatore, Tom Rockcliff, Robbie Gray and Daniel Hannebery.
Some of those bets will pay off, some won’t, but we felt that our overall equity would grow using a core group of players such as that. For example, Robbie Gray was matched as high as $680 this season (not our money I’m afraid) and he’s now trading around $10. We took Gary Ablett preseason at around $10 and he traded in to as low as $1.57, allowing us to trade some out before his injury. Even now, without playing seven games, he’s still around $5 so we can easily lay off for a guaranteed profit.
Look for soft periods of the draw
If your targeted players have a soft period in the draw where they are playing lowly-ranked teams or teams they historically perform well against, then watch for movements in the markets during that period. Remember that most three votes are awarded to the winning team, so winning games certainly helps. If you can find some players having a good run early in the season, then they might be worth backing, but be careful late in the season. The media overhype Brownlow chances late in the season, so if the market falls for the hype then look to lay some of it off to lock in some profit.
Which brings us to our next point....
Avoid media hype
The media love to overhype the Brownlow. You only have to listen to the commentary over the last few weeks to be told that there are about 14 different players who could win the Brownlow (there’s not!). It’s Dyson Heppell whenever Essendon win and Jordan Lewis when Hawthorn win. Neither will probably win the Brownlow, so don’t get caught up in the hype. Use it to your advantage by laying those who are clearly unders in the market.
Keep track throughout the season
So how do you know who is unders? Keep track during the season. Use a spreadsheet, or paper and pencil if you have to, and log who you think got the votes each game, each week. Check their disposal stats and read the reports if you didn’t watch the game. It’s far easier to spend an hour doing this each week during the season that trying to cram 25 hours of doing it at season’s end.
Use Betfair trading software
When we talk about backing and laying bets, we recommend you use the exchange at Betfair. You can enter all of your bets manually, or you can use third-party software to help you manage your trading positions at the click of a button.
We use Bet Angel Professional and can highly recommend it, but others use Geeks Toy or BetTrader which are also perfectly fine.
Some of them do come with a cost, but usually there’s a free trial period. One good trade will cover the costs, and it will most certainly pay for itself.
Trading on the night
In our next piece we’ll take a closer look at trading on Brownlow night, and give you an insight into our strategies for betting live on the Brownlow this year! Until then, make sure to check out our general ‘2014 Brownlow Preview and Betting Tips’.
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