2014 Brownlow Medal Preview
It’s hard to remember a year when there has been so much interest for the Brownlow Medal. Maybe it is because it’s widely considered that this could be one of the closest vote counts in history. The AFL has even gone on record as saying they have as many as eight medals ready in case of a mass tie. It’s unlikely they actually think eight players will finish on equal votes, this is more just being majorly precautious. It does, however, highlight how close the voting could be.
Just a few weeks ago, we brought you 2014 Brownlow Medal betting tips following Round 18. Our main betting tip was to take Joel Selwood at $6.50 as it was huge overs at that point. Those that got on will be happy to see that Selwood is now the favourite paying just $2.80. It was definitely some of our other betting tips that put punters in a good position though, one of the best being Dyson Heppell to win most Essendon votes at $2.25 and he’s now into an unbackable $1.25. We also gave a couple of head-to-head betting tips that are no longer available as they were backed in so much. It is these sorts of markets that are going to see us profit when betting on the 2014 Brownlow Medal.
For those that didn’t read our Brownlow Medal article after Round 18, I will now explain how we come up with our tips. Basically we gave votes in every single game of the year and then try to find value accordingly in the Brownlow betting markets available at the best Australian sports betting websites. Obviously giving votes in not an exact science, but we try to do our best in giving votes based on factors such as stats, impact on the game, media/newspaper votes and past voting history.
We use a system of voting where if it is too hard to split individual players, then we give out two lots of 2.5 votes. For example: Steve Johnson and Joel Selwood were equally as impressive in Round 2 of this year so they get 2.5 votes each. They were then once again equally as eye-catching against GWS in Round 18 and so once again we give them 2.5 votes each. The thinking is then that over a long period of time, both players will pick up the same amount of 3-vote games and 2-vote games in these situations.
In this 2014 Brownlow Medal betting tips article, we will first take a look at our Top 10. However, at this stage of the year, we don’t actually think there is a huge amount of value to be found on the outright winner market. We are just happy to have got on Selwood, and told our readers to do the same, when he was $6.50 at the end of Round 18. Still, using the votes, we will see what we can come up with. After we take a look at the 201 Brownlow Medal winners market, we will then point out some great value heads-to-head and group betting markets.
The column marked “Total” are the votes we have the players on including the half votes. The next two columns represent the maximum and minimum votes we believe the players could poll. The maximum column is calculated by rounding up all the half-vote games (i.e 2.5 votes becomes 3) and the minimum column is calculated by rounding down those game s(i.e 2.5 votes becomes 2). It can then be deduced that we think the players will fall somewhere in this range. As you can see with Gary Ablett, all three of his columns are the same as we think his games were cut and dry. We are aware that some people have Ablett on up to 4 votes more than us at Before You Bet and that’s why his odds are so small despite missing so much football.
2014 Brownlow Betting Top Ten
As you can see, we have Joel Selwood on top with 25.5 votes. We think he could get up to 27 votes, which will certainly lock up the 2014 Brownlow Medal. What some may find surprising is that we have Josh Kennedy trailing Selwood by just half a vote and we think he has the capacity to poll up to 26 votes. When looking at his odds, we may have a biased towards Kennedy, but it still seems that getting on him at around $10 could be value. Our Brownlow bet of the year was, however, certainly suggesting Selwood at $6.50 a few weeks ago.
At this stage, we will be suggesting a small play on Josh Kennedy at $10, but our main betting tip is Josh Kennedy to finish in the Top 5 at $2.00. Both of these odds can be found at Sportingbet Australia. Heading into the second weekend of the AFL finals, Sportingbet also started offering Quinellas and Exactas - consider having a look at the Joel Selwood / Josh Kennedy combos.
2014 Brownlow Medal Betting Tips
Our best betting tips for the 2014 Brownlow Medal will not be found in the outright winner market, but instead in the various heads-to-head and group betting markets.
Head-to-Heads at Sportsbet
There are a couple of heads-to-head markets at Sportsbet that we think our value. I will outline the markets, with our potential votes in brackets before listing each Brownlow betting tip. Firstly we have Bryce Gibbs (10-12) Vs. Stephen Hill (7-8). Next is Levi Greenwood (10-12) Vs. Bernie Vince (3-5). Finally we like the look of Marc Lecras (7-9) Vs. Steven Motlop (2-4).
Bet On: Bryce Gibbs at $1.65 – Sportsbet
Bet On: Levi Greenwod at $1.65 – Sportsbet
Bet On: Marc Lecras at $1.60 - Sportsbet
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‘Group JA’ at Ladbrokes
Ladbrokes Australia has started offering a few different markets and we think we have found some value. Dion Prestia is the favourite in this market at $3, but we believe second favourite Brett Deledio is the value here. We have Deledio polling between 10-13 votes, while we have Presita on 10-11. That’s only marginally more, but if we consider that Deledio is more of a proven vote-poller than Prestia, we do think this represents value. Nick Dal Santo is the only other threat in this group, but happy to take him on in a relatively quiet year.
Bet On: Brett Deledio at $3.40 - Ladbrokes
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‘Past Guns’ at Sportsbet
The ‘Past Guns’ group at Sportsbet is an interesting one. We actually have four of the players (Nick Dal Santo, Luke Hodge, Jobe Watson and Jimmy Bartel) in the group on very similar votes and this is despite Dal Santo and Hodge being quite short priced. It is for this reason we are happy to get a small amount on both Watson and Bartel, which will see us with approximate odds still higher than that of Dal Santo or Hodge.
Bet On: Jobe Watson ($7.00) & Jimmy Bartel ($6.00) at Sportsbet
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‘Best Midfielder G2’ at TattsBet
This is a really tough group, but we couldn’t look past the juicy odds on Trent Cotchin. While it might be very hard for him to beat Robbie Gray, we think he is a great chance to top Jordan Lewis, Scott Pendlebury and Dyson Heppell. All of these players paying between $2.25 and $8, while Cotchin is at $21! He is a proven poller and doesn’t have that much competition to pick up votes at the Tigers.
Bet On: Trent Cotchin at $21 – TattsBet
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‘Best midfielder G4’ at TattsBet
This market looks pretty simple – Tom Rockliff will win. He is the favourite at $1.90, but we have him up to nine votes ahead of second favourite Brent Harvey. Rockliff proved in 2013 that he does poll votes, even in an unsuccessful team like the Lions.
Bet On: Tom Rockliff at $1.90 – Tattsbet
Be sure to return to Before You Bet for more 2014 Brownlow betting content in the coming weeks before the big night. Also stay locked to our Twitter page (@Before_You_Bet) as we will be quick to let you know of any other value betting markets opening up.
'Pocket Rockets' Group at Sportingbet (*** NEW TIP! Added Sep. 10th *** )
This one looks pretty simple, but there is still plenty of value to be found with the favourite in Jimmy Bartel. The second favourite, Devon Smith, has had a couple of solid games, but he's not a proven vote getter and has played in a team that has one just a few games. Bartel, on the other hand, is a Brownlow Medalist himself and while this hasn't been a big year for him, we have him 4-5 votes ahead of any other player in this group.
Bet On: Jimmy Bartel at $2.50 - Sportingbet
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
